September and October Over the Jumps
Last year I looked at flat racing in September and October; this year I am switching to analyse past results from National Hunt racing in these two months.
In around a week’s time we will hit September which will herald the start of Autumn, and the summer of 2025 is soon to be a distant memory. While the flat season is entering its last two full months at this time of the year, the National Hunt season is slowly starting to see more horses return to the track after a summer break. Obviously, some horses are kept going in the summer, but most of the better horses are ‘locked’ away until the weather starts to turn and more opportunities arise.
Data for this piece has been taken from UK National Hunt racing from September and October over the last ten years – 2015 to 2024. Profit and losses have been calculated to Betfair SP (BSP) less 2% commission on winning bets.
Market Factors – let me start by looking at some market data by splitting by market rank or position. I am using Betfair SP in terms of determining market position rather than Industry SP.
| Market Rank | Bets | Wins | Win SR % | Profit/Loss (BSP) | ROI % (BSP) | A/E (BSP) |
| Fav | 4937 | 1801 | 36.48 | + £16.19 | + 0.33 | 1.01 |
| 2nd fav | 4891 | 1058 | 21.63 | – £161.49 | – 3.30 | 0.99 |
| 3rd fav | 4757 | 671 | 14.11 | – £189.15 | – 3.98 | 0.97 |
| 4th in betting | 4413 | 485 | 10.99 | + £104.03 | + 2.36 | 1.07 |
| 5th in betting | 3899 | 281 | 7.21 | – £314.03 | – 8.05 | 0.94 |
| 6th + in betting | 17479 | 638 | 3.65 | – £2544.05 | – 14.57 | 1.02 |
As you can see, favourites have just nudged into profit, while second and third favourites have only made small losses. Those fourth in the betting have also made a profit but this is probably down to variance more than anything. Horses fifth in the betting would have lost you around 8 pence in the £, those sixth or bigger in the market would have lost you over 14p in the £.
Sticking with favourites I thought it would be useful to look at their stats by year to see whether the performance of favourites has been consistent over the ten-year time span.
Here are my findings:
| Year | Bets | Wins | Win SR% | Profit/Loss (BSP) | ROI % (BSP) | A/E (BSP) |
| 2015 | 504 | 192 | 38.1 | + £23.06 | + 4.58 | 1.06 |
| 2016 | 503 | 184 | 36.58 | – £5.54 | – 1.1 | 1.02 |
| 2017 | 470 | 155 | 32.98 | – £61.96 | – 13.18 | 0.90 |
| 2018 | 467 | 177 | 37.9 | + £2.04 | + 0.44 | 1.00 |
| 2019 | 469 | 163 | 34.75 | – £19.67 | – 4.19 | 0.98 |
| 2020 | 592 | 203 | 34.29 | + £4.73 | + 0.8 | 1.01 |
| 2021 | 556 | 223 | 40.11 | + £67.19 | + 12.09 | 1.11 |
| 2022 | 515 | 204 | 39.61 | + £23.68 | + 4.6 | 1.04 |
| 2023 | 426 | 146 | 34.27 | – £23.84 | – 5.6 | 0.96 |
| 2024 | 435 | 154 | 35.4 | + £6.49 | + 1.49 | 1.00 |
Six winning years out of ten which is roughly what I would have expected. However, there has been big differences between favourite performance when comparing different years. The results in 2017 and 2021 does show that even favourite data can be slightly volatile at times. 2017 saw losses of over 13p in the £, 2021 saw profits of over 12p in the £. A difference of 25p in the £ or 25% in terms of ROI%.
Continuing on with favourites let me now split the results by non handicap versus handicap races:
| Race Type | Bets | Wins | Win SR % | Profit/Loss (BSP) | ROI % (BSP) | A/E (BSP) |
| Non Handicap | 1853 | 828 | 44.68 | – £80.42 | – 4.34 | 0.98 |
| Handicap | 3084 | 973 | 31.55 | + £96.61 | + 3.13 | 1.04 |
There is a definite edge to favs in handicap races. Indeed, handicap hurdle races have seen favourites in their best light. Favourites in such contests have won 497 races from 1551 runners (SR 32%) for a healthy BSP profit of £134.81 (ROI +8.7%).
Looking at course data for favourites during September and October there are four courses that have been excellent for backers of the ’jolly’.
They are shown in the table below:
| Courses | Bets | Wins | Win SR % | Profit/Loss (BSP) | ROI % (BSP) | A/E (BSP) |
| Ascot | 36 | 14 | 38.89 | + £20.76 | + 57.66 | 1.42 |
| Aintree | 70 | 26 | 37.14 | + £20.07 | + 28.67 | 1.30 |
| Hereford | 88 | 42 | 47.73 | + £20.75 | + 23.58 | 1.19 |
| Stratford | 240 | 98 | 40.83 | + £28.94 | + 12.06 | 1.12 |
The figures for Ascot, albeit from a smallish sample are very good indeed.
Conversely, three courses have proved a graveyard for favourites at this time of the year:
| Courses | Bets | Wins | Win SR % | Profit/Loss (BSP) | ROI % (BSP) | A/E (BSP) |
| Chepstow | 231 | 67 | 29 | – £55.58 | – 24.06 | 0.85 |
| Huntingdon | 152 | 46 | 30.26 | – £27.76 | – 18.26 | 0.83 |
| Kempton | 70 | 23 | 32.86 | – £18.59 | – 26.56 | 0.79 |
It looks best to steer clear of favourites therefore at Chepstow, Huntingdon and Kempton based on this past data.
I have one more favourite stat to share.
Market leaders that had raced within the last 7 days of their last run have done well winning 88 races from 204 qualifiers (SR 43.1%) for a profit of £21.19 (ROI +10.4%).
For the second part of the article I would like to dig into trainer performance:
Trainers – Most trainers plan their campaigns carefully, usually in a similar way year in year out, so I wondered if any trainers in particular target these two months of the year. I am going to start by looking at the overall trainer stats. To qualify a trainer must have had at least 150 runners in the specified time frame. In the table below are the top 20 trainers in terms of strike rate (they are ordered by said strike rate):
| Trainer | Bets | Wins | Win SR % | Profit/Loss (BSP) | ROI % (BSP) | A/E (BSP) |
| Nicholls, P | 662 | 187 | 28.25 | – £27.88 | – 4.21 | 1.00 |
| Henderson, N | 367 | 80 | 21.80 | – £13.36 | – 3.65 | 0.97 |
| Elliott, G | 246 | 53 | 21.54 | – £66.54 | – 27.05 | 0.94 |
| Twiston-Davies, N | 800 | 172 | 21.5 | + £91.41 | + 11.43 | 1.11 |
| Bailey, K | 335 | 69 | 20.60 | + £43.94 | + 13.12 | 1.21 |
| Fry, H | 244 | 50 | 20.49 | + £3.17 | + 1.3 | 1.01 |
| Ellison, B | 294 | 57 | 19.39 | – £11.80 | – 4.01 | 1.09 |
| King, A | 429 | 81 | 18.88 | – £16.88 | – 3.94 | 0.99 |
| Richards, N G | 245 | 46 | 18.78 | + £35.50 | + 14.49 | 1.14 |
| Newland, Dr R D P | 414 | 76 | 18.36 | – £20.35 | – 4.92 | 1.02 |
| Curtis, Miss R | 181 | 33 | 18.23 | + £63.03 | + 34.82 | 1.19 |
| Hobbs, P J / White, J | 611 | 111 | 18.17 | – £50.39 | – 8.26 | 1.00 |
| Murphy, O | 486 | 88 | 18.11 | – £91.69 | – 18.91 | 0.99 |
| King, N | 206 | 35 | 16.99 | – £25.83 | – 12.54 | 1.19 |
| Skelton, Daniel | 1138 | 193 | 16.96 | – £141.98 | – 12.49 | 0.88 |
| O’ Brien, Fergal | 752 | 127 | 16.89 | – £91.99 | – 12.23 | 0.94 |
| Snowden, J | 391 | 66 | 16.88 | – £43.31 | – 11.08 | 1.02 |
| Mulholland, N | 745 | 125 | 16.78 | + £146.70 | + 19.74 | 1.18 |
| Daly, H | 182 | 30 | 16.48 | + £19.03 | + 10.46 | 1.30 |
| Longsdon, C | 615 | 99 | 16.10 | – £81.00 | – 13.17 | 1.02 |
Nigel Twiston-Davies has a very good record with his September and October runners securing returns of over 11 pence in the £. He has long been known as a trainer who starts the season well – from 2010 to 2014 he made decent profits too.
The stable has done particularly well when sending runners to the Stratford track. When he does, he has had 18 winners from 62 runners (SR 29%) for a profit of £35.46 (ROI +57.2%). Also, Worcester has been a happy hunting ground with 21 winners from 74 (SR 28.4%) for a healthy profit of £45.21 (ROI +61.1%).
He has also secured a blind profit in all three main race types – chases, hurdle races and bumpers. It should also be noted that his results have not been skewed by big-priced winners on Betfair. Horses with a BSP of 24.0 or bigger have seen just 1 win from 75 for losses of just over 58p in the £. Runners from the Twiston-Davies stable require close scrutiny in the coming weeks.
Kim Bailey is another trainer who seems to target September and October. He has been very consistent producing a blind profit in 8 of the 10 years. Bailey’s runners in non-handicap hurdles have done particularly well at this time of year.
In these races he has saddled 101 runners of which 28 have won (SR 27.7%) for a profit to BSP of £44.22 (ROI +43.8%).
Also, Bailey’s male runners seem to come to hand quicker than his female ones as the splits in the table below indicate:
| Sex of Horse | Bets | Wins | Win SR % | Profit/Loss (BSP) | ROI % (BSP) | A/E (BSP) |
| Male | 269 | 62 | 23.05 | + £65.17 | +24.23 | 1.26 |
| Female | 66 | 7 | 10.61 | – £21.22 | – 32.15 | 0.92 |
His male runners have done exceptionally well as you can see. Like Twiston-Davies his figures have not been skewed by winners at big prices. His record with those runners priced BSP 24.0 or bigger stand at 0 from 37, with just two managing to place. Keep an eye out for Bailey runners in the near future – especially males and / or those running in non-handicap hurdle races.
So, what about Messrs Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson? Neither show a blind profit overall but their runners still generally run to a good level.
Let me share some course positives for both at this time of year. Nicholls first.
He has a good record at Chepstow and Cheltenham. He has sent a lot of runners to Chepstow – 151 to be precise of which 42 have won (SR 28.5%) for a profit of £18.91 (ROI 12.5%). Less runners have been seen at Cheltenham but 13 wins from 53 runners (SR 24.5%) has seen a profit of £12.79 (ROI +24.1%).
Henderson meanwhile has secured a 31p in the £ profit at Cheltenham, while at Warwick his 22 runners have been successful 8 times (SR 36.4%) for a profit of £28.05 (ROI +127.5%).
I have one more key stat for Nicholls to share. He has done well with his runners in bumpers (NH Flat races). He has had 20 winners in this sphere from 53 runners (SR 37.7%) for a sound profit of £17.78 (ROI +33.6%).
The final trainer I would like to mention is Neil Mulholland. His results are skewed a little by some horses winning at big odds, but he has managed a profit in 7 of the 10 years, including all of the last four.
Take a note of any of his handicap runners as they have produced returns of close to 40p in the £.
It is time now to wind this piece up. Although the focus for many punters is the flat at this time of year, potentially there are going to be some opportunities to make money over the jumps.
David Renham
