The Cheltenham Festival continued…
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Now is the time to get stuck into Facile Vega. The amount of talking people are doing about this horse is ridiculous.
He ran a bad race, like 99.9% of horses do, forget about it and move on. Comparing the race to the Irish Champion Hurdle and the Liffey Handicap you can see how fast they went in the Novice Hurdle, so he was never going to win from the front. We know he’s a better horse than Il Etait Temps and he ended up winning the race by 9 lengths, because circumstances benefitted him on the day.
The Supreme is a different day and there is no way Paul Townend is going to let the same thing happen again. I can’t understand why he’s drifted so much in the market, so I do think he’s value now.
It may turn out he’s not quite as good as people thought, but there isn’t enough evidence to write him off yet.
Recommended Bet
Back Facile Vega @ 10/3
Champion Chase
There’s only 11 left in here and we pretty much know where we stand with all of them. Energumene and Edwardstone take a big chunk out of the market and rightly so, I would firmly be in the camp of the latter between those two. To be honest there is still a tiny bit of 2/1 about for Edwardstone and I was tempted, but he probably won’t be far from that on the day. Editeur Du Gite has been brilliant the last twice, but those were two proper efforts and it’s a huge ask for him to go and do it again off the back of those.
Gentleman De Mee should be double figures at the very least in my book and I think Blue Lord is a bit overrated, but he could even step up into the Ryanair now Allaho has been ruled out.
If there’s one in here that’s overpriced, I believe it’s Nube Negra.
I’m not bullish and saying he’s going to win this and I’ll actually be a little surprised if he did. However, if this race was run 33 times, I certainly think he could win at least one of them and place in quite a few, which is why I think the 33/1 is simply too big.
His chase form around Cheltenham is 211, with the second being in the 2021 Champion Chase followed up by a couple of Shloer Chase successes. He’s not flashy, but he’s solid around here and I’d be pretty sure in saying he’ll run to around 165, which isn’t enough to beat Energumene or Edwardstone, but I think it’s enough to beat the rest. And if the aforementioned two have an off day, which could happen the way this jumps season is going, Nube Negra can pounce.
Dan Skelton hasn’t gone far wrong when targeting races this season – big wins with the likes of Protektorat, Proschema, Le Milos and Ashtown Lad – he’s had the horses in exceptional condition when it mattered most and I don’t think Nube Negra will be any different.
Recommended Bet
Back Nube Negra @ 33/1 Each way
Triumph Hurdle
Lossiemouth should arguably still be unbeaten as she was tremendously unlucky at the Dublin Racing Festival, when Jourdefete faded from the front into Lossiemouths path, dropping her to the rear of the field. She then had to make up a lot of ground wide which she just couldn’t make up on Gala Marceau.
I wouldn’t say it’s put too much of a dent in her Triumph claims, but she’s far from unbeatable.
To me, Bloody Destiny has looked equally, if not more impressive than Lossiemouth. His two wins so far have been extremely dominant and the form stacks up too. The runner up from his first run, Sir Allen, has won twice since. Plus, the two he beat next time, Common Practice and Nusret, he beat further than Lossiemouth did. He’s not been truly tested yet, but the way he dismantled the field last time suggests he’s pretty good.
Who Townend rides in the race will be an indicator, but I imagine it’s probably a flip of the coin for him. On what they’ve shown, I’d have Bloody Destiny and Lossiemouth closer in the betting.
Recommended Bet
Back Bloody Destiny @ 3/1
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
A typically competitive renewal and despite often having a great chance, Gordon Elliott has never won this race. But I really like the look of Three Card Brag for him here.
He generally races a bit behind the bridle which is a positive for this race as he’ll give himself every chance of staying the trip. He’s been hitting the line very strongly over shorter distances and going up to three miles is surely going to bring about improvement.
His form also stacks up really well, having beaten Sandor Clegane at Galway and Absolute Notions at Naas, those two went on to place in the Grade 1 Nathaniel Lacy Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. Inthepocket finished in front of him in the Naas race, who came in second in the Grade 1 over two miles at Leopardstown, so his form is rock solid.
I think he’s crying out for this trip, having powered on after the last to win at Fairyhouse in January.
Recommended Bets
Back Three Card Brag @ 8/1
Alex Peperell