Leicester Racecourse

First up a quick look at the situation to date from our suggested Fakenham Micro Systems: (23^rd January 2023 to date 14^th February 2023).

From the seven micro systems we have had just 3 runners, two of which Puller Up and one other loser. It is still very early days for these.

Leicester – A brief history

Leicester racecourse is believed to date back to 1603 but the racecourse itself was established in 1773 at Victoria Park with a move in 1883 to the current location of Oadby and the first race at the present course taking place on July 24^th 1883.

In the late nineteenth century, the course was in its heyday offering some of the most valuable races of the time in the UK including the Prince of Wales Stakes and the Portland Stakes, both races carrying more prize money than any of the high class flat racing classes in 1889.

The course was also known for the Flockton Grey ringer case which we featured way back in Issue 10. You can read that here.

The racecourse now headlines itself as “A classic venue for racing, dining and events”, also sponsoring a local charity each year, with 2023’s being Hope Against Cancer.

The course is a dual Flat and Jumps course which hosts up to 30 race meetings a year.

Location

Located in Oadby about three miles from Leicester City Centre the course can be reached relatively easily by both public transport and by car. Situated at the junction of the A6 and the main outer ring road in Leicester (A563).

By Train: You can get to the racecourse by train and then take a short taxi ride the course. There is a taxi rank inside the station, or alternatively you can take a bus from the station.

By Bus: The most direct bus to the course can be caught from the City Centre and you would need to get off at Oadby Gate Road bus stop which is directly across the road from the racecourse.

Arriving from Oadby town you would need to get off at Oadby Meadowcourt Road bus stop.

The Course

The course is oval in shape and approximately 1 mile 6 furlongs in length. There is a straight 7 furlong course which runs downhill to half way and then uphill for 2 furlongs before levelling out for the final 1 ½ furlongs.

The most valuable flat race run at the course is the Listed King Richard III Stakes run in April over 7 furlongs.

The steeplechase course is approximately 1 mile 5 furlongs with ten fences including an open ditch and a water jump. The steeplechase home straight now has four fences including the open ditch. Hurdle races are run on the flat course, and the final 3 furlongs are uphill and offer a stiff test of stamina.

The Favourites Stats

All figures are based on data available from 1^st January 2020 to 9^th February 2023.

National Hunt Favourites

Favourites (including joint and co favourites) have produced the following set of results:

61 winners from 172 runners 35.47% -19.62 A/E 0.88 99 placed 57.56%.

Breaking those 172 runners down into their National Hunt race codes:

Chase: 34 winners from 85 runners 40.00% +7.95 A/E 1.04 48 placed 56.47%.

Hurdles: 27 winners from 87 runners 31.03% -27.57 A/E 0.74 51 placed 58.62%.

NHF: No runners

Breaking the runners down between Handicap and Non Handicap races.

Non Handicap: 30 winners from 63 runners 47.62% -3.05 A/E 0.96 44 placed 69.84%

Handicap: 31 winners from 109 runners 28.44% -16.57 A/E 0.82 55 placed 50.46%.

• Favourites that won their last race have produced – 12 winners from 41 runners 29.27% -12.89 A/E 0.69 21 placed 51.22%.

• Favourites that had finished outside the top four on their last start produced – 19 winners from 49 runners 38.78% +0.82 A/E 1.05 29 placed 59.18%.

Summary: Favourites having won their last race significantly underperform compared to those that had finished outside the places in their last race.

National Hunt Trainers and Favourites:

If you’re a favourite backer. Here are the best performing trainers when the money is down over recent years (1^st January 2020 – 9^th February 2023).

Due to the relatively low numbers in the sample size, there is only one standout National Hunt trainer: –

Dan Skelton – 8 winners from 14 runners 57.14% +5.02 A/E 1.13 12 placed 85.71%.

And it will come as no surprise that top jockey when on the favourite is: –

Harry Skelton – 7 winners from 14 runners 50.00% +1.02 A/E 1.00 11 placed 78.57%.

Back in November 2019 (Issue 60) John Burke picked up on the Skelton Leicester runners but concentrated on those that had not stepped up in trip by more than 1/2f, but just 2 runners in the year 2020 meant that we archived the system as not carrying further value to a portfolio.

We may come back to the Skelton team later in this article.

General Course Stats:
• Odds SP: 14/1 and above – 10 winners from 447 runners 2.24% -143 A/E 0.71 45 placed 10.07%.

• Previous course winners provided 17 winners from 93 runners 18.28% +72.71 A/E 0.99 36 placed 38.71%. (Those rather large profits came from two 40/1 winners).

Summary: Previous course winner’s do reasonably well. In fact, had you backed the National Hunt runners blindly that had a previous course win you would be up 59.92 pts to ISP (89.07 to BFSP), and that profit would have seen you make a profit in 2020, 2021 and 2022, but it is the Handicap runners who offer the best returns.

15 of the 21 wins in recent years have come from Handicap Hurdlers and Chasers (Excluding Novices), and it may pay to follow these.

Micro System 1: Back Handicap Chasers and Hurdlers at Leicester when they have previously won at the course. (Will be reviewed at the end of May 2023).

Flat Favourites

Favourites (including joint and co favourites) have produced the following set of results:

134 winners from 390 runners 34.36% -11.36 A/E 0.94 232 placed 59.49%.

Breaking those 390 runners down between Handicap and Non Handicap races.

Non Handicap: 54 winners from 130 runners 41.54% -6.60 A/E 0.92 85 placed 65.38%

Handicap: 80 winners from 260 runners 30.77% -4.76 A/E 0.95 147 placed 56.54%.

• Favourites that won their last race have produced – 39 winners from 89 runners 43.82% +15.19 A/E 1.11 62 placed 69.66%.

• Favourites that had finished outside the top four on their last start produced – 30 winners from 98 runners 30.61% -13.94 A/E 0.85 56 placed 57.14%.

Summary: Favourites on the flat who won their last race over performed compared to those that had finished outside the places in their last race.

Flat Trainers and Favourites:

Here are the best performing trainers when the money is down over recent years (1^st January 2020 – 9^th February 2023).

There are a number of trainers who stand out when their runners are sent out at Leicester and are favourite in the betting, these include: –

Eve Johnson Houghton – 4 winners from 5 runners 80.00% +7.35 A/E 2.38 4 placed 80.00%

John Gosden (Now John and Thady Gosden) – 7 winners from 10 runners 70.00% +7.40 A/E 1.74 8 placed 80.00%

Clive Cox – 5 winners from 9 runners 55.56% +4.78 A/E 1.53 6 placed 66.67%

David (PD) Evans – 4 winners from 9 runners 44.44% +6.50 A/E 1.49 8 placed 88.98%

Summary: It may be worthwhile noting when these four trainers have a horse out at Leicester that is heading the betting market.

General Course Stats:

• Odds SP: 14/1 and above – 23 winners from 1081 runners 2.13% -484 A/E 0.61 117 placed 10.82%.

• Previous course winners provided 38 winners from 215 runners 17.67% –13.83 A/E 1.00 94 placed 43.72%.

General Trainer Stats and Micro Angles

Here are a few interesting recent trainer track stats for the last 3 years that will hopefully enable you to identify some winners at Leicester.

We could do worse than to keep an eye on the mature hurdlers from the Skelton yard but also from the yard of David Pipe.

Combined they offer up a strike rate of almost 40%.

Micro System 2: Back the 4yo and older hurdlers from the Skelton and Pipe stables Hurdles at Leicester.

Two trainers which may offer a chance of a small profit at Leicester with their chasers are Venetia Williams and Laura Morgan. Both have overperformed according to their A/E values which are 1.49 and 1.59 respectively for the period in question.

If you avoid 9yr olds plus we can improve our profits as just two of the winners have been aged over 8 years.

Micro System 3: Back the 8yo and younger chasers from the Venetia Williams and Laura Morgan stables when running at Leicester.

A first glance at the stats on the flat and they scream out – Mick Appleby, but don’t be misled. Running the figures through horseracebase for the period in question Appleby returns a whopping 130.33 pts 240.32 BFSP, but with a strike rate of just 13.51%, you know what is coming…a 40/1 shot and a 100/1 shot in those figures.

Cox, Evans, Gosden and Johnson Houghton are worth further investigation together with Ralph Beckett, Pam Sly and Ed Walker, but stay away from Sellers and Claimers at Leicester as these trainers are just 2 winners from 21 runners.

Starting with Clive Cox: His Non Handicappers way out perform his handicappers at Leicester.

His non handicappers have produced a profit each year since 2019.

Micro System 4: Back Clive Cox Non Handicap runners at Leicester

David PD Evans: Concentrate on his younger handicappers.

Horses having run in 4yo+handicaps are 1 winner from 12 runners.

Micro System 5: Back David Evans younger handicappers at Leicester.

John and Thady Gosden: No surprise that any profits from the yard are relatively tight at the course as they tend to be over bet. That said they have a 33.33% strike rate with their sprinters at Leicester but we don’t feel that there is a long term profit to be had as profits for the period mainly came from 2 winners in 2022.

Ralph Beckett: Another trainer who may be worthy of following his handicapper runners at Leicester. There was a small loss in 2021 to BFSP of -1.99pts but that wouldn’t have broken the bank.

Micro System 6: Back Ralph Becketts Handicap runners at Leicester.

Pam Sly: Pam Sly we have touched on before in past issues. Not the most prolific of runners at the course but since 2019 results have been profitable, but the profits of +56.25pts at ISP include a 50/1 shot and without that we don’t feel that there is justification for following her limited runners at Leicester.

And finally, Ed Walker: A healthy strike rate backing blindly of 28.57% and a greater than 50% place strike rate offers promise when profits have come from both handicap and non handicap runners, but a close look shows that he is 0 winners from 7 runners in 3 year old races so it probably pays to stay away from those.