Market Rasen: The Home of All Year Jumps Action.
In last month’s
OCP magazine I looked at Ripon racecourse. This month I’m moving from Yorkshire
into the neighbouring county of Lincolnshire and changing race codes to look at
a jumps track Market Rasen.
As before in this series of articles on British racecourses, I will look
briefly at the track’s location, history, configuration and will also highlight
some significant track stats.
History and Location
Market
Rasen racecourse is located close to small market town of the same name on the
edge of the Lincolnshire Wolds.
From the early years of the 19th century until 1924 racing took place on
several sites close to the town. In 1924 the racing finally settled on its
present location on Willingham Road.
Victor Lucas oversaw the running of the course between 1945 and 1971 and the
present layout of the course and many of the facilities at the track came about
under his stewardship. When he took charge of the track the course only had
three fixtures a year.
When the
course was sold to Racecourse Holding Trust, a subsidiary of the Jockey Club,
now Jockey Club Racecourses, racing was taking place 13 times a year.
For racegoers going by car to the racecourse is accessible from the M1, A1 and
M18 and A46. For those opting for public transport the town of Market Rasen has
its own railway station which is about a mile from the racecourse. Taxi’s are
available from the station or it’s just a short 25-minute walk to the track.
Track Configuration
Market
Rasen has traditionally been known for its valuable summer meetings like the
Summer Plate fixture but it does race throughout the year.
Hurdle
Course
Chase
Course
As the above images, from the Racing Post, show the course is a right-handed
tight, slightly undulating and oval shaped, with seven “easy” fences per
circuit. I say “easy”, which they are, but you can often see horses fall or
make a mistake at the third last and final fences which can change the
complexion of race. It’s never over till it’s over here.
Given the bends are fairly, tight the track does favour front runners and
horses that can travel well throughout a race. Turning into the straight you
will often see horses quicken away and it’s not easy for more patiently ridden
horses to catch them. The run in from the last fence is a short one! However,
the home straight is a long one and if the jockey goes too quick too early,
they can be caught out.
Market Rasen Stats:
As ever
let’s begin by looking at some general stats including favourite stats at the
course since 2015.
The stats below are from Jan 1st, 2015 to the time of writing (10/07/19) and
cover all meetings at the course.
Once again, I am using the ever useful www.horseracebase.com for the
stats.
Let’s begin by looking at some general meeting stats from the last five years.
Beginning with the fate of the favourites both clear and joint.
The results below contain 681 winners from 5199 runners
Favourites
Clear,
joint & co-favourites have produced the following set of results:
262 winners from 736 runners 36% -45.07 445 placed 60%.
Breaking those results down into handicap & non-handicap races gives us:
Non-handicap – 112 runners from 249 runners 45% -20.17 A/E 0.91 176 placed
71%.
Handicap – 150 winners from 487 runners 31% -24.9 A/E 0.97 269 placed 55%.
Digging a bit deeper let’s focus on favourites that won their last race and
those favourites who had finished outside the first three on their last start.
- Favourites that won their last race have produced – 71 winners from 230 runners 31% -50.91 A/E 0.78 140 placed 61%.
- Favourites that had finished outside the top four on their last start produced – 77 winners from 222 runners 35% -4.55 A/E 0.98 132 placed 59%.
Trainers and Favourites:
If you’re a favourite backer. Here are the best performing trainers when the money is down:
Summary: The Brian Ellison & Nigel Twiston-Davies trained favourites also provide punters with a bit of value looking at their A/E stats.
Jockeys and Favourites:
Which jockeys have done the business when the money is down for favourite backers?
Summary: With the retirement of Noel Fehily, it might be worth noting any Leighton Aspell ridden favourites at the track.
General Stats
Now a few general course stats. Starting with market position.
Market Position:
- The top three in the betting provided 514 winners from 2116 runners 24% -216.38 A/E 0.91 1031 placed 49%
- Odds SP: 18/1 & above – 12 winners from 1234 runners 1% -837 A/E 0.35 97 placed 8%
Summary: Big priced winners above 16/1 do occasionally pop up at Market Rasen, but they are few and far between and if you have backed all runners at the meeting that started 18/1 or bigger you would have lost a whopping £837 to a £1 level stake.
Last Time Out Placing:
Those horses that finished in the first three in their last race provided 374 winners from 1945 runners 19% -289.37 A/E 0.89 779 placed 40%.
Last Time Out Winners:
- Last time out winners provided 141 winners from 640 runners 22% -11.2 A/E 0.89 274 placed 43%
Previous Course Winners:
- Previous course winners provided 108 runners from 811 runners 13% -261.45 A/E 0.79 261 placed 32%.
Summary: As a
comparison, the average for last time out winners in all UK NH races in the
period under research is 21% with an A/E 0.91.
Whilst previous course winners average, in a NH races in the period have won
15% of races with an A/E 0.89. So, previous course winners are performing
slightly below the national average in terms of winners and below market
expectations.
If you had backed all previous course winners at Market Rasen, you would have
lost £261.45 to a £1 level stake.
Trainer Stats and Angles
Here are
a few interesting trainer track stats, which will hopefully enable you to
identify some winners at Market Rasen, through the rest of this season at the
course.
1. Trainers & Handicap Hurdle Runners Top-Three In The Betting.
- Nigel Twiston -Davies – 5 winners from 8 runners +8.2 63% A/E 2.19.
- Emma Lavelle – 4 winners from 7 runners 57% +10.38 A/E 2.35 5 placed 71%.
- Henry Oliver – 5 winners from 11 runners 45% +8.75 62% A/E 1.71 7 placed.
- Jennie Candlish – 3 winners from 7 runners 43% +6.91 A/E 1.55 5 placed 72%.
- Tom George – 2 winners from 5 runners 40% +2 A/E 1.45 4 placed 80%.
- Oliver Sherwood – 2 winners from 5 runners 40% +2 A/E1.47 3 placed 60%.
- Ben Pauling – 3 winners from 8 runners 38% +6.25 4 placed 50%.
- Brian Ellison – 6 winners from 19 runners 32% +12.5 A/E 1.64 7 placed 37%.
2.Trainers & Handicap Chase Runners Top-Three In The Betting.
- David Pipe – 4 winners from 7 runners 57% +12.63 A/E 2.22 5 placed 71%Mark Walford – 4 winners from 8 runners 50% +9.5 A/E. 2.17 6 placed 75%.
- Tom George – 3 winners from 7 runners 43% +6 A/E 1.99.
- Dr Richard Newland – 5 winners from 13 runners 38% +2.88 A/E 1.44.
- Kim Bailey – 3 winners from 8 runners 38% +5.25 A/E 1.37.
- David Dennis – 3 winners from 8 runners 38% +10 A/E 1.59 5 placed 63%.
3. Trainers & Race Class – (Handicaps).
- Dr Richard Newland – Class 3 – 5 winners from 8 runners 63% +16.13 A/E 2.59.
- Jonjo O’Neill – Class 5 – 3 winners from 7 runners 43% +7 A/E 1.73 6 placed 86%.
- Jennie Candlish – Class 4 – 4 winners from 10 runners 40% +11.91 A/E 2.03 6 placed 60%.
- Tom George – Class 3 – 4 winners from 10 runners 40% +20 A/E 2.52.
- James Eustace – Class 4 – 3 winners from 8 runners 38% +7.5 A/E 2.26 6 placed 75%.
- Henry Daly – Class 4 – 3 winners from 8 runners 385 +7.83 A/E 2.8 4 placed 50%.
- Dan Skelton – Class 2 – 3 winners from 9 runners 335 +1 A/E 1.53 5 placed 56%.
- David Pipe – Class 4 – 5 winners from 15 runners 33% +7.83 A/E 1.57 8 placed 53%.
4. Trainers & Race Distance.
- Dan Skelton – 2m 1f/ 2m 1 ½ f – 8 winners from 24 runners 33% +25.43 A/E 1.55 10 placed 42%.
5. Trainers & NHF Races – Racecourse Debutants.
- Harry Fry – 3 winners from 3 runners 100% +6.08 A/E 2.7.
- Fergal O’Brien – 2 winners from 6 runners 33% +14 A/E 2.44 4 placed 67%.
- Ronnie O’Leary – 1 winner from 2 runners 50% +0.25 A/E 1.33 2 placed 100%.
- Ben Pauling – 1 winner from 2 runners 50% +1.5 A/E 1.612 placed 100%.
Summary: Plenty
of interesting trainer stats to digest there, albeit the sample sizes are
small.
Note any Nigel Twiston-Davies, Emma Lavelle & Henry Oliver trained handicap
hurdlers who are in the first three in the betting.
In handicap chases keep onside any David Pipe, Mark Walford & Tom George
runners that are in the top three in the betting. Dr Richard Newland’s runners
in all Class 3 handicaps have been profitable to follow.
When it comes to NHF races then Harry Fry’s racecourse debutants, may have run
in a point to point, will always be worth a second look.
Market Rasen Trainer Micro Angle:
Finally, here is a trainer micro angle for you:
- Trainer: Dan Skelton.
- Race Type: Handicaps.
- Race Distance: 2m 4f or Less.
- Race Class: 3 & 4.
- Position In Betting: Favourite.
- 13 winners from 21 runners 62% +20.51 A/E 1.75 16 placed 76% with a tasty 97.67% return on investment for backing favourites.
System 62: Back Dan Skelton
Favourites in handicap races at Market Rasen, in Class 3 & 4 races and race
distances up to 2m 4f.
Hopefully you enjoyed this brief look at Market Rasen racecourse and some of
the track’s key stats.
The next instalment in this tour of British racecourses moves north to Scotland
and the jumps track at the border’s town of Kelso.
Until next time.
John