The Pep Talk – Ante Post Cheltenham Bets
The Cheltenham Festival
Mares Hurdle
The Mares Hurdle is an interesting race currently, as the complexion of it is still very much in the balance.
It revolves around Brighterdaysahead and Lossiemouth. Both not only should run in but are more than capable of holding their own and possibly winning the Champion Hurdle. However, because the Mares Hurdle exists and is a Grade 1, it is still very much an option open to them.
To be honest, it doesn’t matter what I, or anyone else thinks they should run in. The fact of the matter is they could run in either race and the chances of us knowing for definite before declarations are slim. So, I’m not going to dwell on it.
That being said, for betting purposes, it’s very intriguing. If neither of the above two horses run, the Mares Hurdle is wide open.
If only one of them runs, there is pretty much two places available. If both of them run, we’re trying to find a horse to finish third. I’ve got one I’ve backed and it’s Kateira for Dan Skelton. I still don’t think we’ve seen the best of her yet and the fact she seemingly comes into her own in the spring means this looks like a terrific target for her.
The Mares Hurdle is THE race for her this season.
It’s against her own sex at her optimum trip. I’m quite confident that there is a massive performance in this horse, providing she gets the right race conditions. The Mares Hurdle is her chance to show what she’s made of. If Brighterdaysahead and Lossiemouth both run in the Champion Hurdle, then I think we could be on an unbelievable bet at 33/1. Even if they both run in this, Kateira can certainly nab third.
I’ve not seen anything mentioned about her since the Long Walk so at this point in time, I don’t know if Dan Skelton is planning on running her in this. But as long as she’s well, I think he’d be missing a trick not to.
Recommended Bet
Back Kateira @ 33/1 Each Way
Brown Advisory Novices Chase
Ballyburn currently heads the market for the Brown Advisory and I can see why, as he boasts one hell of an engine and was near faultless over hurdles last season. I am just not at all convinced by his jumping over fences.
He won his debut easily, but that was down to pure ability as he took everything out of their comfort zone, but he didn’t jump great. Then he did face a stiff task on relatively quick ground over two miles at Kempton against Sir Gino, given that Ballyburn is a horse that possesses plenty of staying power. That being said, I would have liked to have seen him jump better.
Unless he’s on the perfect stride, he struggles. When he’s in close he doesn’t really pop them, he just sort of gets through the fence. Then when he’s on a long stride, he really lets go and flies it almost too big. He’s not an efficient jumper and while going up in trip gives him more wiggle room in that regard, I can see him coming unstuck.
His engine advantage won’t count for as much over fences and I can see him clattering one and it being race over.
Willie Mullins also has plenty of other contenders for this, with Dancing City, Impaire Et Passe, Champ Kiely and Lecky Watson all possibles. Given what I’ve said above, I wouldn’t be sure that come March, Ballyburn is the stables number one hope for this contest.
He may not have won by that far, but the performance of The Jukebox Man in the Kauto Star at Kempton on Boxing day was a bit of a wow performance.
His jumping was impeccable. If you didn’t know that was a novice race and just watched him, you would have thought he was an old hand. He was that good. When he was in close, he was fast and nimble. When he was long, he was accurate and athletic. I could not have been more impressed, especially given that Ben Pauling said he had a problem with his heels going into the race, so he likely wasn’t even 100% right.
I really like The Jukebox Man, and he looks a quality horse over fences who has definitely improved since last year. You can see he loves to race and when Ben Jones let him go at Kempton, he grabbed the ground and accelerated. He was so unlucky not to win the Albert Bartlett last year.
Whatever Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott throw at him this year, I think he’ll hold them off.
Recommended Bet
Back The Jukebox Man @ 5/1
Mares Novices Hurdle
Willie Mullins was farming this race when it was first brought into the Cheltenham Festival programme, but he’s yet to win any of the last four. It has become a much more open contest.
The market leader is Maughreen, who is yet to jump over hurdles. So, I think there must be value to be had in this market.
The one who I think is overpriced is Diva Luna.
She was a particularly good bumper horse last season, winning a Listed contest as well as the Grade 2 Mares Bumper at the Grand National Festival.
Surprisingly turned over at odds of 4/11 on her hurdling debut, I can forgive her that given it was her first start in the sphere against a race-fit rival. Diva Luna duly made amends at Cheltenham next time against the geldings. She jumped particularly well and even though it was over two and a half miles, it at least showed that she likes the track.
The form isn’t anything to shout home about, but we know she has the ability from last season anyway. The more experience she gets the better she’ll be over hurdles.
Recommended Bet
Back Diva Luna @ 14/1
Ryanair Chase
This seasons Ryanair Chase could cut up massively. Going through those near the head of the market – Fact To File will likely run in the Gold Cup; Banbridge could run, but has other options and is pretty ground dependent; Gaelic Warrior will likely run in the Champion Chase; we haven’t seen El Fabiolo all season and possibly won’t until this day; Il Est Francais could run in either the Champion Chase or Gold Cup; Energumene will surely run in the Champion Chase and Grey Dawning will run in the Gold Cup.
There could be a huge amount of the market taken up by horses that won’t even run. Therefore, I think Jungle Boogie is a solid bet here.
He’s an 11 year old who has only had 7 runs in his life, winning 5 of them. He won the New Years Day Chase at Tramore last year and subsequently went for the Gold Cup.
To be honest, he ran really well in it, but it was ultimately a bridge too far as he was too free during the race. Finishing 6th was no disgrace at all.
Dropping back in trip on his seasonal reappearance at Ascot, he beat the small field easily from the front. He jumped well throughout, albeit to his left, but that shouldn’t be a problem around Cheltenham.
This looks like his optimum trip, and he’s done very little wrong in his career. His form entitles him to be shorter than 20/1 and given the potential lack of runners in the Ryanair, he could well be much shorter on the day.
Recommended Bet
Back Jungle Boogie @ 20/1
Alex Peperell
