Trainers Who Excel with Unexposed Handicappers (July-August)

It’s a simple fact that some trainers are significantly more skilled at successfully placing their young un-exposed Handicappers than some of their counterparts.

As always, these opportunities need to be exploited by us shrewd punters. If there is an edge available, then we need to be all over it and filling up our betting banks with the profits.

It also must be said that certain trainers are superior with their unexposed handicappers at different periods of the season. Some like to have them ready to fire as soon as the flat season is underway, whilst others take a bit more of a measured approach to things and spark their unexposed types to life once we are a bit deeper into the season.

What follows in this report are four trainers that the stats are telling us are masters at finding winning (and profitable) openings for the un-exposed handicappers within their ranks, specifically in the months of July and August.

I’m ignoring horses aged two for this particular report (so those that would be running in two-year-old nursery handicaps when they start appearing on the calendar) as I personally feel this is a different and arguably more niche of a skill than preparing three-year-old and older horses in the early stages of their handicapping careers.

I’m also keeping things relatively recent and only using data from between the years of 2018 and 2022 (so the last 5 full seasons only) as, for various reasons, training methods and mindsets can and do change over time.

I’ll start with the trainer I feel is one of the current best around for finding the perfect place to start off his unexposed handicappers in the July to August period…

William Haggas

Overall record since 2018 with 3yo+ horses on first or second handicap start (July-August)

49/205 | 24% S/R | -£10.88 BFLSP – W&P 84/205 | 41% S/R

7% below market expectation

So, a small loss and slightly below market expectation for Haggas with his unexposed handicappers in July and August, but a strong starting point and a healthy supply of winners for us to start digging a bit deeper…

First up I want to drop any of his horses coming off a break of 57 days or more (so more than eight weeks rest). This makes perfect sense as come July & August you will almost certainly, in the main, be taking on race fit rivals and any chinks in race fitness will likely be cruelly exposed. With these types (DSLR 57+) Haggas is 0/22 and I’m happy to ignore those without at least one run on the track in the last eight weeks.

I also want to drop horses running at the same track as their last start. Horses doing ‘something different’ than their last run is often an angle I like to look at/consider and in this case, Haggas sending an unexposed type back to the same track as their last run is something I’m happy to exclude (this comes from previous research I have done and would be an article in itself).

Next up I want to remove the Haggas Colts from the equation and only include his geldings and fillies. This makes sense to me as the colts in these races may have found themselves dipping into handicap company after not quite living up to their initial promise, whilst those that have been gelded are likely to have had handicaps as the plan for some time. He does win handicaps with unexposed colts, but they are generally very well found in the market and are hard to make a profit from (when going at things from a system/angle style approach) and in this instance they would have returned -£5.97 BFLSP and were running 17% below market expectation.

So as things stand the angle is looking as follows…

William Haggas | 3yo+ Geldings & Fillies on first or second handicap start (July-August) | DSLR 56 or less | Different track to last start.

41/138 | 30% S/R | +£27.09 BFLSP – W&P 66/138 | 48% S/R

12% above market expectation

System 65:  William Haggas | 3yo+ Geldings & Fillies on first or second handicap start (July-August) | DSLR 56 or less | Different track to last start. With the following Betfair SP Stipulation.

The final nut I want to tighten up comes on the price side of things, which can often be the most vital of all filters when it comes to certain trainers, or at least certain strings of a trainers bow.

If we use the exchange starting prices as our guide and only concentrate on the unexposed Haggas handicappers that start at BFSP 7.00 or less (so 6/1 or less) then the strike-rates tighten up significantly and leaves us with a very solid angle to go to war with…

William Haggas | 3yo+ Geldings & Fillies on first or second handicap start (July-August) | DSLR 56 or less | Different track to last start | BFSP 7.00 or less.

38/102 | 37% S/R | +£31.06 BFLSP – W&P 57/102 | 56% S/R

16% above market expectation.

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