What does the formbook say about galloping courses?

This month we focus on racecourses described as ‘Galloping’. Here’s the list:

Ascot, Ayr, Bath, Chepstow, Doncaster, Haydock, Newbury, Newcastle, Newmarket, Nottingham, and Redcar.

We look at the performance of favourites over the last 10 years, calculated to Betfair Starting Price. Let’s take a look. Each month, look out for the influence that pedigree has on profit/loss. We’ll take a first look at the most profitable betting angles first where profit has breached £1000 to £10 stakes.

Official Going Good to Firm

BACK LEVEL STAKES- £100 into £2216 to £10 level stakes. Price Filter: Back at odds of greater than, or equal to, 4.00 decimal

22.3% strike rate

Average Odds: 5.20

Longest Winning Sequence: 4

Longest Losing Sequence: 24

SPECIAL REMARKS: The most eye catching profit. Remember that price filter is the key to success here. Official Going is distinct from Actual Going. The Sporting Press do make the distinction when referring to Official Going.

Draw 5

LAY BACKER’S STAKE – £100 into £1469 to £10 backer’s stake

69.7% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.51

Longest Winning Sequence :22

Longest Losing Sequence: 6

SPECIAL REMARKS: Watch out for those favourites drawn in Stall 5! Very layable indeed on galloping tracks. I would surmise that Newcastle is the primary driver to this angle.

Horse Age 7

BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £1371 to £10 level stakes at odds of >4.00 decimal

22.1% strike rate

Average Odds: 5.26

Longest Winning Sequence: 6

Longest Losing Sequence: 20

SPECIAL REMARKS: Note the Price Filter. It is key to profit here with these O.A.P.s

5 runs in the last year

BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £1224 backing at odds of >4.00 decimal.

37.2% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.53

Longest Winning Sequence: 7

Longest Losing Sequence: 16

SPECIAL REMARKS: Lower profit but smoother graph if backing odds on favourites (decimal <2.00)

The month of March

LAY BACKER’S STAKE – £100 into £1180 to £10 backer’s stake

68.4% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.50

Longest Winning Sequence: 20

Longest Losing Sequence: 7

SPECIAL REMARKS: Why March? I’m not sure but it’s a very simple and profitable strategy. When March arrives, lay those favourites on galloping courses.

43 -56 DSLR (Days since last run)

BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £1129 to £10 level stakes

34.5% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.65

Longest Winning Sequence :7

Longest Losing Sequence: 17

SPECIAL REMARKS: A 92 point profit since 1^st September 2021 suggests that this is one of those ‘get ‘em while they’re hot’.

Actual Going – Slow

LAY BACKER’S STAKE – £100 into £979 to £10 backer’s stake

70% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.47

Longest Winning Sequence: 13

Longest Losing Sequence: 6

SPECIAL REMARKS: Slow would refer to an all weather venue. Newcastle would fit the bill there. Results from 2016 onwards only too.

Jockey Claim LTO 7lbs

BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £918 to £10 level stakes. Price Filter: Odds of >=4.00 decimal

24.2% strike rate

Average Odds: 5.20

Longest Winning Sequence: 3

Longest Losing Sequence: 17

SPECIAL REMARKS: The price filter proves significant again. LTO refers to Last Time Out

No runs in the last 3 month

LAY FIXED LIABILITY – £100 into £753 to £10 fixed liability only at odds of <=2

43.7% strike rate

Average Odds: 1.69

Longest Winning Sequence: 7

Longest Losing Sequence: 18

SPECIAL REMARKS: A solid profit considering we are laying odds on favourites. Remember that in laying odds on favourites using fixed liability, our returns increase the shorter the odds of the horse that we can get beaten.

Trainer Peter Bowen and Jockey Sean Bowen

BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £745.55 to £10 level stake

42.7% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.56

Longest Winning Sequence: 5

Longest Losing Sequence :8

SPECIAL REMARKS: A particularly good 2024 to date augurs well for continued progress. Trainer Peter Bowen and Jockey son Sean Bowen are worth backing to level stakes too. A 44.5% strike rate. £100 into £582 to £10 level stakes.

Handicap Limit 125

BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £694 to £10 level stakes

30.5% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.80

Longest Winning Sequence: 5

Longest Losing Sequence: 18

SPECIAL REMARKS: The profit is even more impressive if you use this, Price Filter. Back favourites at odds of greater than, or equal to, 4.00 decimal odds.

A much smoother price graph, and £100 into £944 sees a slightly lower strike rate but average odds are 4.95.

SP Rank 8 LTO

LAY BACKER’S STAKE – £100 into £677 to £10 backer’s stake

73.6% strike rate

Average Odds: 4.00

Longest Winning Sequence :20

Longest Losing Sequence: 5

SPECIAL REMARKS: SP Rank 8 LTO means: Today’s favourite on a galloping track must have been the 8^th favourite in its race last time out. Is that leap to favouritism significant? Well, it is for the layer. £761 make to £10 backer’s stake since July 2019 is a trend to surf.

Sheikh Mohammed Al Makhtoum

BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £646.94 to £10 level stakes

40.7% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.26

Longest Winning Sequence: 5

Longest Losing Sequence: 16

SPECIAL REMARKS: My apologies to the Sheikh if I butchered his name there. Have dosh, will win! It’s the kind of price graph you like. Bottom left to Top right trajectory.

91 to 150 DSLR LTO

LAY BACKER’S STAKE – £100 into £637 to £10 backer’s stake

70.8% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.70

Longest Winning Sequence: 14

Longest Losing Sequence :5

SPECIAL REMARKS: £903 made since June 2020 is superb and why I mention this angle. The accompanying video will take you through how to find qualifiers.

Trainer A P O’Brien

LAY BACKER’S STAKES – £100 into £582 to £10 level stakes

69.5% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.22

Longest Winning Sequence :10

Longest Losing Sequence: 3

SPECIAL REMARKS: 2024 has seen a loss but that’s the only poor year in a long while. Jockey Ryan Moore is layable on all of his rides, as well as those for his main employer Mr. O’Brien. £100 into £545 laying Moore’s rides on favourites to £10 backer’s stake. This profit for the layer particularly prevalent since July 2019

25 furlongs (with 8 furlongs to a mile, this is 3 miles and 1 furlong)

LAY FIXED LIABILITY – £100 into £346 to £10 fixed liability

72.3% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.78

Longest Winning Sequence :15

Longest Losing Sequence: 5

SPECIAL REMARKS: A specialist distance troublesome for favourites on galloping tracks? Do note this is fixed liability profits. Modest but note that 2023 and 2024 ticked along nicely.

4 runners

LAY FIXED LIABILITY – £100 into £602 to £10 fixed liability. PRICE FILTER: Lay favourites only at decimal odds of equal to or less than 1.5

33.1% strike rate

Average Odds: 1.34

Longest Winning Sequence :4

Longest Losing Sequence: 14

SPECIAL REMARKS: Odds on favourites and fixed liability work well together here. The bank has increased by 1/5^th this 2024!!

Conclusion

The most profitable angles can be found at the start of the article. Official Going Good to Firm is the absolute standout angle. I would also suggest a focus on ‘smooth profit graphs’ as these indicate some potential future solidity. These include: