Chester’s May Festival: Home of the Historic Chester Cup

This is the first in a series of articles where I will be looking at some of the big British & Irish handicap races in the flat racing calendar. Highlighting some key race trends and some possible contenders. I’m going to begin by looking at the Chester Cup which is run each May.

Chester, it’s all about Racing and Romans

Chester Racecourse known as the ‘Roodee’, or “Rood Eye”, meaning “The Island of the Cross”, lies on the banks of the River Dee and was originally the site of large harbour during the Roman period. Eventually the area silted up making sea bound navigation impossible and the harbour was no more.

If reports are correct Chester racecourse is also the oldest racecourse still in use in England, with racing dating back to the time of King Henry VIII.  Not only is it probably the oldest racecourse it’s also the smallest in the UK at just 1m 1f.

Part of the track touches onto the city’s historic walls from which people can watch the action which is unique to any British racecourse. When people say Chester, racecourse is a natural Amphitheatre for watching horse racing they are not far wrong.  

Chester’s May Festival with its mix of competitive handicaps and Group races make it one of the key spring flat racing festivals.

We lost last year’s May Festival due to the Covid19 pandemic and its lockdown. Thankfully it’s back in 2021. Sadly, due to ongoing government Covid restrictions this year’s festival will have to be held behind closed doors. There will be no paying spectators this year but at least owners will be allowed to attend.

You will of course be able to see all the best of the action on ITV or Sky Sports Racing.

The Tote Chester Cup remains the most valuable race in the Chester racing calendar and for me and many other it’s the most exciting race of the three days. 

The race which was first run in 1824 and was known as the “Chester Tradesman's Cup”, has often produced may exciting finishes during its long history. It has also produced some very easy winners. None more so than the 2019 winner Making Miracles.

Expertly steered by jockey Franny Norton. Making Miracles overcame what looked a hopeless draw in stall 16 to get across into the lead. He was never headed and stayed on strongly all the way to the line to win by an easy six lengths.

You can watch the 2019 race by clicking on the video link below.

Few jockeys ride Chester as well as Franny Norton but this success was his first in the race and it was also trainer Mark Johnston’s first Chester Cup success.

There have been nine dual winners of the race including Sea Pigeon back in 1977 & 1978, Top Cee’s in 1995 & 1997, Rainbow High in 1999 & 2001 and more recently the late Michael Jarvis trained Anak Pekan in 2004 & 2005.

Chester is unique a left-handed track with its “twists and turns” horses are always on the turn. Go out to wide and you are losing lengths and using up valuable energy.

On the other hand, in a big field like the Chester Cup going down the inside can lead to problems of its own as horses can find their passage blocked and have little time to recover.

Raced over two miles, two and half furlongs the Chester Cup used to be held on the first day of the meeting. However, in 2018 there were changes made to the running order and the race was moved to the final day.

Chester Cup Trends

The big betting race of the three days and an interesting race from a trend’s perspective.  Looking at the 10-year trends on the ever-reliable www.horseracebase.com.

The results below contain 10 winners from 166 runners 39 placed.

Chester Cup Trainer Statistics

Since 2010 Irish trained runners are 0 winners from 17 runners. However, it was worth noting seven of them have placed in that time.

Looking at the individual trainer stats:

Donald McCain – 2 winners from 9 runners +8.5 3 placed.

Mark Johnston – 1 winner from 11 runners +6 4 placed.

Marco Botti – 1 winner from 2 runners +9.

Nicky Henderson – 1 winner from 2 runners +10.

Ed Dunlop – 1 winner from 6 runners + 5 2 placed.

Andrew Balding – 1 winner from 6 runners +11 2 placed

Ian Williams – 1 winner from 11 runners -2 (Also trained the 2008 winner)

David Pipe – 1 winner from 3 runners + 5

Richard Fahey – 1 winner from 16 runners -3 6 placed (Also trained the 2007 winner)

Other notable trainer trends:

Dermot Weld – 0 winners from 4 runners 3 placed

Alan King – 0 winners from 4 runners 3 placed

Willie Mullins – 0 winners from 3 runners 2 placed

Hughie Morrison – 0 winners from 3 runners 2 placed

Draw:

Making Miracles win in 2019 was a real trends buster as far as the draw is concerned. As he became the first horse in a stall higher than 13 in the period under research. Mind you the horse got a masterclass ride from the jockey. Being able to get the front from his wide draw with a minimum of fuss.

Official Rating:

Those runners outside that Official Rating band 93 to 99 are 2 winners from 84 runners 19 placed and they have performed 69% below market expectations.

Age:

Looking at the age stats. Six-year-old’s have performed best with 50% of the winners and that age group has also had more placed runners than four- & five-year-olds combined.

Odds SP:

All the last winners of the race were returned at 16/1 or less. Those sent off 20/1 & bigger are 0 winners from 70 runners 5 placed.

Other Notable Trends:

Course Form

Despite the unique nature of the track. Those runners with two or more runs at Chester are 1 winner from 40 runners 9 placed and if you had backed them all you would have lost £27 to a £1 level stake. Previous course winners are 0 winners from 24 runners 6 placed.

Last Race Code:

Runners coming into the race after running in a NH race are performing 47% above market expectations and have a healthy win & place strike rate.

Meanwhile horses whose last run came on the all-weather continue to disappoint with 0 winners from 37 runners 5 placed.

Odds Last Race

Those runners sent off 14/1 and bigger on their last start are 1 winner from 52 runners 7 placed and If you had backed them all you would have lost £43 to a £1 level stake.

Chester Cup Micro Angles:

For those looking for Chester Cup micro angle you could probably do worse than look for horse with the following traits.

Those simple trends have found 90% of the winners from just 27% of the total runners

Or you could go even more niche with this one.

It’s found 70% of the winners from just 14% of the total runners.

Chester Cup 2021

The entries for this year’s race are out and most bookmakers have priced it up. Here are a few contenders that I like that this early stage.

Postileo. The Roger Varian trained 4-year-old put in a career best effort after 8 months off the track when finishing runner-up in the Queen’s Prize at Kempton. He’s lightly raced and is open to more improvement this season. He will win races this year, but he does have that all-weather stat to defy.

Last year’s winning trainer Mark Johnston could saddle Trumpet Man.  The 4-year-old improved for stepping up to 2m in the second half of the season and will be sharper for his recent seasonal appearance at Musselburgh. A prominent racer could be well suited to the track.

Glencadam Glory who finished runner-up in last season’s Ebor Handicap, now 4lb lower, also ran in the Musselburgh race and wasn’t subjected to hard race on his return to action.

Two places in front of him was the Ian Williams trained Indianapolis who was having his first start for the trainer and is another who should come on for his seasonal reappearance.

Dermot Weld has a couple of entries in Falcon Eight & Dalton Highway.  Both would be contenders should they come over from Ireland. The first named is a classy sort who has been gelded since his last run last summer.

Like most of these big race trend articles. The above figures are based on historic data and whilst history has a good habit of repeating itself, it often doesn’t.

Well, I hope you found this article informative and hopefully it will enable you to find this year’s winner of the Chester Cup.

Until next time. 

John Burke