What does the formbook say about Sharp courses?

This month we focus on racecourses described as ‘Sharp’. Here’s the list:

Aintree, Bangor-on-Dee, Brighton, Cartmel, Catterick, Chester, Epsom, Fakenham, Fontwell, Goodwood, Hereford, Kelso, Kempton, Lingfield, Market Rasen, Musselburgh, Newton Abbot, Plumpton, Ripon, Sedgefield, Southwell, Stratford, Taunton, Warwick, Windsor, Wolverhampton, Chelmsford City.

We look at the performance of favourites over the last 10 years, calculated to Betfair Starting Price. Let’s take a look. Each month, look out for the influence that pedigree has on profit/loss. We’ll take a first look at the most profitable betting angles first where profit has breached £1000 to £10 stakes.

3yo + 55 race classification

LAY BACKER’S STAKE – £100 into £1118 to £10 level stakes

78.5% strike rate

Average Odds: 4.27

Longest Winning Sequence :22

Longest Losing Sequence: 5

SPECIAL REMARKS: Bank never in the negative.

Headgear P1 (cheek pieces for the first time)

LAY BACKER’S STAKE – £100 into £1214 to £10 backer’s stake

73.3% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.57

Longest Winning Sequence: 17

Longest Losing Sequence: 4

SPECIAL REMARKS: Lay Fixed Liability at odds between 1.01 and 5 has turned £100 into £663 to £10 fixed liability

Race Distance LTO – 24 furlongs (3 miles)

BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £1329

37.2% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.53

Longest Winning Sequence: 7

Longest Losing Sequence: 16

SPECIAL REMARKS: Lower profit but smoother graph if backing odds on favourites (decimal <2.00)

Horse Aged 7

BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £1371 to £10 level stakes at odds of >4.00 decimal

22.9% strike rate

Average Odds: 5.06

Longest Winning Sequence: 5

Longest Losing Sequence: 24

SPECIAL REMARKS: Never bankrupt. 2024 profit

Easy Course LTO (Last time out)

BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £1445 to £10 level stakes

36.3% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.40

Longest Winning Sequence :6

Longest Losing Sequence: 13

SPECIAL REMARKS: One of the better profits over time

21-30 miles travelled to the course

BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £1495 to £10 level stakes

34.4% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.63

Longest Winning Sequence: 7

Longest Losing Sequence: 15

SPECIAL REMARKS: Never bankrupt. 2024 profit

22 to 28 DSLR LTO (Days since last run Last Time Out)

BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £1728 to £10 backer’s stake

34.9% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.47

Longest Winning Sequence: 7

Longest Losing Sequence :20

SPECIAL REMARKS: Very impressive returns since 2020.

Handicap Limit 70

BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £1855 to £10 level stakes

32.1% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.77

Longest Winning Sequence :6

Longest Losing Sequence: 20

SPECIAL REMARKS: Profits continue into 2024

Trainer Tim Easterby

LAY FIXED LIABILITY – £100 into £363 to £10 fixed liability

75.4% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.78

Longest Winning Sequence: 12

Longest Losing Sequence: 4

SPECIAL REMARKS: Better profit to backer’s stake but more erratic profit graph.

One Run in the Last Year

LAY BACKER’S STAKE – £100 into £589 to £10 backer’s stake

61.9% strike rate

Average Odds: 2.88

Longest Winning Sequence: 17

Longest Losing Sequence: 7

SPECIAL REMARKS: Since May 2016 £875 has been made to £10 backer’s stake

Trainer Marco Botti

LAY BACKER’S STAKE – £100 into £610 to £10 level stakes

9.533.6% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.27

Longest Winning Sequence :20

Longest Losing Sequence: 5

SPECIAL REMARKS: 4 winners in the last 5 races does dampen the long term profit, hopefully temporarily.

Dam Sire Anshan

BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £619 to £10 level stakes

45.7% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.21

Longest Winning Sequence :6

Longest Losing Sequence: 6

SPECIAL REMARKS: Another smooth profit graph should instil confidence.

Damsire Cadeaux Genereux

LAY BACKER’S STAKE – £100 into £624 to £10 backer’s stake

71.5% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.47

Longest Winning Sequence: 10

Longest Losing Sequence: 4

SPECIAL REMARKS: Bank has never been negative. Solid to Lay 1-4 staking plan. Very smooth profit graphs throughout

Position LTO 9^th

LAY BACKER’S STAKE – £100 into £626 to £10 backer’s stake

72.8% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.84

Longest Winning Sequence: 15

Longest Losing Sequence: 5

SPECIAL REMARKS: Lay 1-4 Staking Plan particularly good, £100 into £2331 to £10 backer’s stake

2 runner races

LAY FIXED LIABILITY – £100 into £709 to £10 fixed liability

34.7% strike rate

Average Odds: 1.44

Longest Winning Sequence: 3

Longest Losing Sequence: 8

SPECIAL REMARKS: Laying to a fixed liability produces a better profit. Why? The shorter the odds we can get beaten, the bigger the profit. In May 2019, a selection at odds of 1.04 made a £237.50 profit by losing!

DSLR (Days since last run) 12 days

BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £709 to £10 level stakes

35.5% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.52

Longest Winning Sequence :6

Longest Losing Sequence: 11

SPECIAL REMARKS:

Evens ISP (Industry Starting Price)

LAY FIXED LIABILITY – £100 into £742 to £10 backer’s stake

55.5% strike rate

Average Odds: 2.13

Longest Winning Sequence: 13

Longest Losing Sequence :8

SPECIAL REMARKS: Profits to level backer’s stake and impressively with Lay 1-4 staking plan

Class H LTO

LAY BACKER’S STAKES – £100 into £763 to £10 backer’s stake

66.6% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.10

Longest Winning Sequence: 19

Longest Losing Sequence: 7

SPECIAL REMARKS: Given the longest winning sequence of 19, a mild loss retrieval staking plan like the Lay 1-4 Staking Plan as really boosted profit. £100 into £1967 to £10 starting stakes.

LTO course Musselburgh

BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £764 to £10 level stakes

34.1% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.67

Longest Winning Sequence :6

Longest Losing Sequence: 16

SPECIAL REMARKS: The profit has really taken off since 3^rd December 2020 so ‘get em while they’re hot!’

Jockey LTO (Last Time Out) Dane O’Neill

BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £771 to £10 stakes

46.9% strike rate.

Longest Winning Sequence :8

Longest Losing Sequence: 6

SPECIAL REMARKS: Very smooth profit graph. Do note that Dane O’Neill might NOT be the jockey for today’s mount. He must, though, have been the jockey last time out.

LTO Course Redcar

LAY BACKER’S STAKE – £100 into £775 to £10 stakes

73.6% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.58

Longest Winning Sequence :20

Longest Losing Sequence: 4

SPECIAL REMARKS: Profits both to a fixed liability and, impressively, with the Lay 1-4 Staking Plan

SP Rank 8 LTO

LAY BACKER’S STAKE – £100 into £832 to £10 backer’s stake

73% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.94

Longest Winning Sequence: 16

Longest Losing Sequence: 6

SPECIAL REMARKS: Smoother profit to a fixed liability. Lay 1-4 staking plan £100 into £3683 to £10 backer’s stake.

24 furlongs (3 miles)

BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £945 to £10 level stakes

25.5% strike rate

Average Odds: 5.00

Longest Winning Sequence :4

Longest Losing Sequence: 19

SPECIAL REMARKS: Backing at odds of 4+ decimal odds improves the smoothness of the profit graph.

Sire Mahler

BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £968 to £10 level stakes

47.9% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.23

Longest Winning Sequence: 6

Longest Losing Sequence: 10

SPECIAL REMARKS: Never bankrupt. Solid smooth profit graph.2024 profit. Pedigree the key to unlocking profit on certain courses?

Sire Exceed and Excel

BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £979 to £10 level stakes

36.1% strike rate

Average Odds: 3.55

Longest Winning Sequence: 6

Longest Losing Sequence: 15

SPECIAL REMARKS: Never bankrupt. 2024 profit

Conclusion

The most profitable angles can be found at the start of the article. I would also suggest a focus on ‘smooth profit graphs’ as these indicate some potential future solidity. These include: