End of the Year Handicap Trainers
Five trainers who excel with their three-year-olds in handicap company in the October, November and December period
This article can be viewed as the third and final part of a trilogy...
Part one being my article for the June issue of On Course Profits, where in that month’s issue I covered races restricted to three-year-olds and highlighted five trainers worth following in such races.
Part two of the trilogy came in the August On Course Profits issue, where I again highlighted a group of trainers that excelled with their three-year-old handicappers but opened up the race types to include ALL handicaps that three-year-olds are eligible for.
Here, in part three of the trilogy, I’m sticking with the three-year-olds and I’m going to highlight a batch of trainers that excel with these types during the final three months of the calendar year, again opening it up to all races that three-year-olds are eligible for but instead of just concentrating on turf races I’m also going to pull in the All-Weather racing for this report (as they finish on the turf in November).
So, the main filters used in this report will be the monthly filter (concentrating on the months of October, November and December) and I’ll also have the ‘Horse Age’ filter turned on and will only be looking at three-year-olds.
What follows in this report are five trainers that the stats are telling us are masters at having the three-year-old handicappers within their ranks still primed to fire in the final three months of the year... indeed some of them may have specifically kept certain horses back for this period of the year, choosing to go easy, or even avoid altogether, the main part of the flat season, with a view to picking off some ‘lower hanging fruit’ at the end of the year...
I’ve extended the time filter on this particular report back to 2014, so taking in the last ten full years, just to give a bit more of a chunky set of numbers for us to work with...
I’ll start with the trainer who sits at the top of the three-year-old handicapper pile on pure winners (in the October, November and December period) ...
Mick Appleby
Overall record since 2014 in Handicaps with three-year-olds (October to December)
62/512 | 12% S/R | -£6.32 BFLSP – W&P 166/512 | 32% S/R
11% below market expectation
A minor loss if backing all of the Mick Appleby three-year-olds in handicaps in the final three months of the year, although given the number of horses in the data set, that small loss to level stakes offers a solid starting point to begin building a workable angle from....
A couple of simple filters strengthens the figures up plenty...
First of all, I want to drop any of the Mick Appleby three-year-old handicappers that were beaten MORE than 10-lengths on their last start...
That group returned figures of 5/134 and a hefty loss of -79.39... so anything coming in off a wide-margin defeat I’m happy to ignore...
I also want to ignore anything that is trading at the really big prices... in this case I’m talking about those starting at an SP of 33/1 or bigger... as a group they are 0/59 and we don’t need to be shooting for these huge prices when it comes to this particular angle...
Removing those coming in off a hefty defeat (10L+) and those totally unfancied by the market (33/1+) leaves us with a much tighter set of Mick Appleby three-year-old handicapper figures...
57/350 | 16% S/R | +£101.07 BFLSP – W&P 132/350 | 38% S/R
3% below market expectation
Still a smidge below market expectation but the profits take a big upswing and put the stats in a much stronger position for us to keep digging...
The next filter I want to implement relates to distance move compared to the horse’s last start. Horses moving UP in trip by a furlong or further have left a big hole in the profits and I’m happy to ignore those types going forward from here...
down in trip, the same trip or up no more than half a furlong is all good... but up in trip by a furlong or further is a no no... removing those types leaves us with the following...
50/247 | 20% S/R | +£152.85 BFLSP – W&P 100/247 | 40% S/R
13% above market expectation
The last screw I want to tighten concerns underfoot conditions and I want to remove any ground that is riding on the slow side... so SOFT and HEAVY on the turf and STANDARD TO SLOW on the All-Weather.
When the Mick Appleby three-year-old handicappers tackle such conditions in the latter quarter of the year they tend to struggle to perform to their best, producing poor strike-rate levels and dropping plenty of the betting bank down the drain...
Adding that last filter gives us a solid looking Mick Appleby angle of...
JO-119-19-10-24: Mick Appleby | Three-year-olds | Handicaps in October, November and December | NOT Soft or Heavy (Turf) or Standard to Slow (All-Weather) | SP 28/1 or less | down in trip, same trip or up no more than half a furlong in trip from last start | Won or beaten 10-lengths or less last time out
47/202 | 23% S/R | +£183.83 BFLSP – W&P 89/202 | 44% S/R
26% above market expectation
Next on the list is a North Yorkshire based trainer that likes to keep plenty of three-year-old handicappers ticking into the winter months...
David O’Meara
Overall record since 2014 in Handicaps with three-year-olds (October to December)
60/410 | 15% S/R | +£197.06 BFLSP – W&P 134/410 | 33% S/R
17% above market expectation
Even without adding in any additional filters those overall, David O’Meara stats look seriously tasty... already firing above market expectation and returning an extremely healthy profit to Betfair SP...
We could, in theory, leave things as they are... but four of the years under analysis returned losses to level stakes (only very minor losses for two of the years, admittedly) and I prefer to have most if not ALL of the years ticking away in profit... so let’s start doing some data digging...
The first area I want to use to start knocking this into a bit more of a ‘user-friendly’ type of angle is Race Class... only one of the 60 O’Meara winners came at Class 2 level so I’m happy to drop the top class level from the dataset and concentrate only on Class 3 or lower levels...
That filter gives the figures a small tidy up to...
59/386 | 15% S/R | +£214.26 BFLSP – W&P 126/386 | 33% S/R
20% above market expectation
That was only a small trim of the data but for angle purposes it makes sense to give the top level (Class 2) a swerve...
Next up I want to ignore his three-year-olds that run in handicaps over trips of 1m3f and further. O’Meara does get the odd winner with these types over the longer trips, but as a group they have damaged the profit bottom line during the period under analysis and I’m happy to remove them from this particular angle...
That tightens up the stats to the following...
57/350 | 16% S/R | +£236.60 BFLSP – W&P 123/350 | 35% S/R
27% above market expectation
Next, I want to look into the number of Handicap starts already on each horses CV... the stats telling me that handicap debutants perform poorly (0/22) as do those with more than 17 previous Handicap starts to their name (0/19) ... so a bit of an upper and lower limit that we can knock on the head when it comes to number of previous Handicap runs...
Filtering those types out of the data tightens the stats to...
57/312 | 18% S/R | +£274.60 BFLSP – W&P 114/312 | 37% S/R
40% above market expectation
And finally... I want to remove those runners that are running off a break of 30 days or more... O’Meara can get those types to win at this stage of the season, but the percentage play is to concentrate on those with a run in the bank within the last 30-days...
Which gives us a final angle of...
JO-119-34-10-24: David O’Meara | Three-year-olds in Class 3 or less Handicaps | October, November and December | trips of less than 1 mile 3 furlongs | 1-17 previous handicap starts | Days Since Last Run 30 or less
54/250 | 22% S/R | +£311.42 BFLSP – W&P 100/250 | 40% S/R
56% above market expectation.
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