Chelmsford 123
For those who remember, this was the title of an old Channel 4 sitcom, which seemed kind of an apt title as we are generally looking for a 1, 2 or 3 finish!
The All Weather (kind of ironically named as they do still get abandoned from time to time!) season is upon us so I thought I’d take a look for some systems in a similar way to the micro system approach in terms of selecting our group of trainers and jockeys to work with.
Chelmsford City is a track I never seem to have a lot of luck with so I thought I’d have a look and see if we can find some systems to run for the whole of 2026 and indeed from the time this article is published which should be mid/late November 2025.
We’ll use the years from 2022 to 2025 inclusive for all of our data so that will be virtually four complete years of data.
There are eleven trainers who have at least 20 wins at Chelmsford during this four year period.
Below is the list of all our profitable jockeys when only riding for any of the above trainers.
There’s a couple here, such as Dettori and Atzeni for example, that are not racing here now but we‘ll include them in our testing figures.
We’ll work through in order and start with Stuart Williams.
It looks like we’re starting from a pretty good place here with just one year showing a minus from all of his Chelmsford runners. If we can trim down our bet numbers a bit we could get something that looks really good.
Below is the table for their record with and without headgear and It would seem fair enough to drop all those who wore a hood with just one place from thirteen runs to show for its use.
A bit of an outlier here on the jockeys. Shepherd is 0 for 14, way out of sync with any other jockey used by Williams and with most of the rides being in 2022 and 2023 I think it’s fair to filter him out. He’s had just a single ride each of the last two years so he’s probably unlikely to be used much if at all anyway.
Race class throws up some more we can remove. While he has had a winner at Class 1 here, it’s the only winner from 13 runners in Class 3 or above and there are only 2 places from those as well. Class 4 to 6 seems to be the ideal level for his horses.
A look at individual months throws up something interesting. February and March have not seen a single winner in our four years. They’re split across the years and in fact in 2023 he didn’t even have a single runner here in those two months. The split is 3,3,0,9 in terms of runners from 2022 to 2025. This could just be noise and random chance as we’re only talking about 14 rides and 7 of them placed so I’m not going to remove them but I thought I’d flag it up out of interest.
His table for days since run suggests those coming off of a lengthy break seem to need the run and I think we can remove them.
This leaves us with this. A nice A/E for each year and a decent priced average win odds as well. 2025 was a bit down on strike rate but we know it has had 9 losing bets in February and March and no wins at all during the four years for those two months so that is an option to avoid those months if you wish.
For the record: Longest losing run to date in our data is 10. Longest losing place run to date is 7.
Richard Hughes is next up.
We’ll start by looking at the distance beaten last time out.
The next run for everything that finished 10 or more lengths back would seem to be best avoided.
Between them they accumulated just 1 win from 19 runs and only the 3 places as well.
And that’s really all we need, I think.
We have ourselves a nice simple little system for Hughes at Chelmsford.
Longest losing run to date in our data is 8. Longest losing place run to date is 4.
Charlie Johnston is next.
A look at his record in the different Classes suggests that we should just leave the higher class affairs and concentrate just on Classes 5 and 6. His record in the higher classes is just 4 wins from 47 runs.
Headgear figures of 2 wins in 13 wouldn’t appear to make a whole lot of difference so we’ll remove those as well.
And that will do us.
Longest losing run to date in our data is 10. Longest losing place run to date is 10.
Marco Botti up next.
There’s nothing particularly standing out on Botti so far apart from this table. This data is the horse’s best result in its last five runs.
As you can see below any horse who has won its last five races has only mustered 2 wins from the 20 occasions it’s happened. It’s a bit of an odd one to filter if I’m honest and at first glance it definitely strays into the back fitting trap. However, when thinking about it I considered that perhaps it was a case of a horse getting put up in the weights through that win and now being too well handicapped.
All well and good but the table below contains handicap and non handicap data. Splitting off those 20 runs though reveals that every single one of those races were in Handicaps so, on the face of it, my theory could very well be the reason for the lack of wins. In other words they’ve racing off a tough mark to win from. I could be wrong but the races are across all four years and all bar one of the years shows a loss so I’m going to remove them..
And that leaves us with a nice looking system.
Longest losing run to date in our data is 6 runs. Longest losing place run to date is 3.
|
The rest of this article is for Platinum members. You've just seen what our experts do with publicly available data — the Platinum section is where the specific angles, numbers and actionable conclusions live. Platinum members also get daily system selections in their inbox by 2am, tips from top tipsters, Win Big Golf selections, and access to 11 years of magazine archives. |
