Aintree Grand National 2021 - Selection Method

The 2021 Grand National

Since 2015 there have been 196 runners in the Grand National (2020 was cancelled due to COVID restrictions), and the largest priced winner during that period was the 33/1 shot in 2016 Rule The World with last year’s winner coming in as the 4/1 favourite, Tiger Roll.

Could this year see an upset and a win of the likes of Mon Mome back in 2009 at 100/1? Your guess is as good as ours, but we do know that with a race like this there is always the chance of a large, priced winner snatching the race.

Keeping things simple, in the last 5 runnings of the race it has been won by an 8 or 9 year old and in fact 8 year olds have placed just over 20% of the time.

Backing these 8 year old runners blindly each way would have secured 24.25 points profit to standard place terms at ISP.

Of those 8 placed runners, 7 had, had 1 or 2 runs in the last 90 days, which given the nature of the race we would expect as it is a true test of stamina.

In fact, of the 61 horses which have run in the race since 2003 that had NOT had a run in the last 90 days only 5 managed to finish in the places, and none have won the race.

All 7 of the placed horses in the last 5 years were carrying the same or lighter weight than their last run.

Currently the following 8 year old runners are entered for the 2021 Grand National

Burrows Saint (16/1)

Canelo (40/1)

Deisa Aba (40/1)

Discorama (40/1)

Lord Du Mesnil (40/1)

Milan Native (40/1)

Agusta Gold (50/1)

Minella Times (50/1)

Pym (50/1)

The Jam Man (50/1)

Captain Drake (66/1)

Mister Malarky (66/1)

Musical Slave (66/1)

Storm Control (66/1)

Tout Est Permis (80/1)

Aforementioned (100/1)

Plan Of Attack (100/1)

Roaring Bull (100/1)

The Hollow Ginge (100/1)

In the last 17 runnings of the race the winners have come from 15 stables, and the only stable to have won the race since 2003 more than once…Gordon Elliot, having won the race in 2007 and then in 2018 and 2019 with Tiger Roll.

Armed with these simple statistics we’ll aim to find one or two who may run close at reasonable prices, and who knows, maybe even land the top spot.

After all, we all know that the Grand National is really a lottery of sorts.

UPDATE 9th April

Of the above list of runners there are 8 qualifying runners tomorrow:

Burrows Saint (10/1)

Canelo (40/1)

Discorama (16/1)

Lord Du Mesnil (33/1)

Milan Native (33/1)

Minella Times (10/1)

Mister Malarky (40/1)

Tout Est Permis (125/1)

Of the shortlist of 8 runners with a recent run we have tentatively picked out 3 we will risk backing each way at the prices currently on offer: Canelo (40/1), Lord Du Mesnil (33/1) and Mister Malarky (40/1).

Good Luck! 🙂