The Reverse Veitch Method
In his book Enemy Number One, Patrick Veitch gives a ‘tongue in cheek'laying method which is described on P243 as now probably the best laying system in racing, for those that who want to play bookmaker is to lay all horses trained by Stuart Williams. Anybody following this system would have shown a huge profit. The market and the press have managed to convince themselves that every horse the stable runs is a potential gamble.
Now when someone of Patrick Veitch's reputation makes a statement like that you have to stand up and take notice. It certainly got my research glands all of a buzz, and I set out to investigate the claims further. Given the book was published in April 2009 I decided to concentrate on the trainer's performance during the period from April through to the end of December 2009.
During this time Stuart Williams sent out 269 runners, of which 33 actually won, achieving a strike rate of 12.27%. Interestingly placing a theoretical £1.00 level stake on each runner did in fact return a loss of £86.25. This was to the industry standard SP and we all know that the betting exchanges lay prices are on the whole considerably more, which would have eaten further into any potential profit if following this route.
At this stage I have to mention that my personal preference is for backing rather than laying as I have to my cost in the past found it so frustrating when your profit from a series of winning lays is wiped out by that bigger than it should have been losing lay. With the advent of the Betfair SP facility I have found some really incredibly priced winners by backing when the layers decide to take one on because it was trying a new trip or was unproven on the going.
With this in mind I decided to delve further into the trainer's patterns and results to see if there was a backing option available.
Breaking down the 269 runners mentioned earlier reveals the following:
| TYPE OF RACE | NO OF RUNNERS | NO OF WINS | STRIKE RATE |
| SELLING STAKES | 12 | 1 | 8.3% |
| CLAIMER | 16 | 1 | 6.2% |
| MAIDEN | 59 | 1 | 1.7% |
| AMATEUR | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| SELLING HANDICAP | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| HANDICAP | 172 | 29 | 16.9% |
| GROUP STAKES | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| OTHER FLAT | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
| 269 | 33 | 12.27% |
| AGE OF HORSE | NO OF RUNNERS | NO OF WINS | STRIKE RATE |
| 2 | 70 | 1 | 1.4% |
| 3 | 98 | 22 | 22.4% |
| 4 | 52 | 6 | 11.5% |
| 5 | 19 | 0 | 0% |
| 6 | 4 | 0 | 0% |
| 7 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% |
| 8 | 12 | 2 | 16% |
| SEX OF HORSE | |||
| MALE | 199 | 27 | 13.6% |
| FEMALE | 70 | 6 | 8.6% |
| JOCKEY | NO OF RUNNERS | NO OF WINS | STRIKE RATE |
| W A CARSON | 89 | 18 | 20.2 |
| SALEEM GOLAM | 72 | 2 | 2.8% |
| C CATLIN | 18 | 2 | 11.1% |
| OTHER | 90 | 11 | 12.2% |
The patterns that stand out for me are: (2023 Updates in brackets)
- Williams rarely has a 2yo winner, in fact during the last five seasons he has managed just 10 from a total of 184 runners, which if you were so inclined provides a healthy start for a laying method. (12% win strike rate last 5 years & a decent profit backing them, don't lay his 2 year olds)
- The vast majority of the stables winners were in handicap type races, which makes sense as the horses aged 3yrs and upwards should be able to start off on a lowly mark given the form showed as two year olds. (Handicap/non Handicap strike rates similar. Big profit backing all this trainers non handicap runners – 10% strike rate 66% ROI BSP)
- Saleem Golam seems to be the jockey used for, how should I put it, schooling the horses. Yes he does ride the odd winner but when the money is down a different jockey is aboard. (Saleem Golam no longer rides)
- Each season Williams manages to identify an up and coming Apprentice Jockey, in 2009 this was William Carson, who gave the added benefit of being able to claim weight off already well handicapped horses. Quite a few of the winners are turned out quickly to run under a penalty before being reassessed by the handicapper, this claim again is a benefit. Carson's claim is now down to 3lb but continues to ride winners for the stable, but it may be worthwhile keeping an eye out for the next up and coming claimer if recent history is to be repeated. In Veitch's book he often refers to wanting jockeys to ride in a certain way or on a particular part of the track, who better to follow these instructions than a youngster trying to make a career for themself in a very competitive sport.
To summarise all of the aforementioned information I would propose that we have the makings of a potentially profitable backing method as follows:
Back all Stuart Williams trained runners when running as a 3yr old or older in handicap races when ridden by any one other than Saleem Golam.
(This system worked well until around 2016 but since then the profit has subsided and now it is a losing system)
Without any other filters or form study the raw figures would have been as follows:-
| NO OF RUNNERS | NO OF WINS | STRIKE RATE | EST PROFIT / LOSS @ BETFAIR PRICES |
| 124 | 27 | 21.7% | +66.36 |
Just from this basic method a very healthy 53.5% return on investment would have been achieved.
How has 2010 faired so ..
| NO OF RUNNERS | NO OF WINS | STRIKE RATE | EST PROFIT / LOSS @ BETFAIR PRICES |
| 16 | 5 | 31.2% | +17.77 |
As you can see the New Year has started off in a very promising position………
As with all types of methods based on past results it pays to keep a close eye on and developments or changes in trends. Early in the fast approaching new Turf Flat season we will see very quickly if Stuart Williams is aiming to repeat his past trends by simply seeing how his two yr olds are performing, if as I am hoping for they do not start winning on a more regular basis then that will give me more confidence to expect a profitable 2010 backing his older handicappers. Happy punting!!
Steve Carter