Bath Racing Tips for Today
The Racing Horse offers their Bath Racecourse Template for Saturday 15 June 2024.
There is a 7-race card containing 5 Handicaps and 2 Novice Races.
The going is expected to be good to firm, but the UK has been promised rain and this could change. Going to be updated at 08.30 Saturday.
Bath FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicaps Handicaps
2yo 28-64 44% -5.47 5-14 36% +0.60
3yo 26-62 42% -12.36 51-157 32% -16.45
4yo+ 4-14 29% -2.50 80-255 31% +10.13
TOTAL 58-140 41% -20.34 136-426 32% -5.72
TOP 5 TRAINERS at Bath past 5 years +/- E
Clive Cox (14%) 26-100 26% +33.59 +12% 1
Tony Carroll (10%) 24-261 9% -76.25 -1% 2
Adrian Wintle (9%) 23-127 18% +22.40 +8% 1
Eve J-Houghton (12%) 20-107 19% +8.33 +7% 0
Rod Millman (12%) 19-122 16% +1.36 +4% 0
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Bath past 5 years +/- R
David Probert (12%) 30-184 16% -6.19 +4% 0
Hollie Doyle (15%) 18-97 19% +2.90 +4% 0
Charles Bishop (9%) 18-157 11% -48.16 +2% 0
Luke Morris (9%) 17-162 10% -80.32 +1% 0
David Egan (12%) 15-58 26% +66.32 +14% 0
TOP 5 OWNERS at Bath past 5 years +/- E
Adrian Wintle (13%) 13-45 29% +46.70 +16% 0
M S Teversham (13%) 6-22 27% +10.49 +13% 0
2 Counties Rac (11%) 6-26 23% +9.08 +11% 0
N Sfrantzis (13%) 5-14 36% +28.12 +23% 1
Godolphin (25%) 5-15 33% +3.53 +8% 0
FIXTURES:
Monday 24 June 2024
Wednesday 3 July 2024
CONFIGURATION: Left handed, galloping. The round course is an elongated oval track, just over twelve furlongs in extent, with a run-in of nearly half a mile, those that commit for home early in the straight often proving vulnerable in the closing stages, this due to the steady climb to the finish. The camera angle in the straight makes it one of the trickiest course in the country for in-running bettors as it's head-on from two furlongs out to inside the last. The highest course in the country, with no watering, so the ground can get very firm during a dry spell.
WINNING FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Bath over the last 5 years show 194-566 for 34.28% (-26.06) so just above the national average of around 33%. Best category for strike rates are 2yo favourites in non-handicaps showing 28-64 for 44% (-5.47) whilst the worst performing category are 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps scoring 51-157 for 32% (-16.45) for a differential of 12%.
TRAINERS: Clive Cox (14%) is top trainer at the track and he has a single runner in MISS SHOW DOWN 2.10 but hard to see this one winning in what looks to be a competitive race!
Tony Carroll (10%) is second best trainer at the course and he has 2 runners including SECOND COLLECTION 3.30 & LOCAL BAY 5.15. Carroll has a national average that hovers between 9% & 10% but is currently in fantastic form scoring 7-31 for a big 23%. The number is massively upgraded if we consider his winners have been at prices 6/1, 16/1, 4/1, 5/6, 5/1, 20/1 & 10/1. These numbers give extra credence to LOCAL BAY 5.10 who at 7/2 (Bet365 19.25) looks a fabulous each way bet to nothing and we have staked accordingly!
JOCKEYS: None of the top 5 jockeys at the course have a ride at this meeting so we need to delve a little deeper. We feature Pat Cosgrave on our Red Flag segment as he looks likely to ride at least one winner, but Sean D Bowen's (11%) jockey bookings have interest. He is not deemed to be in form given his 1-25 for 4% over the past 14 days, but he has 3 rides including TAXIING 1.45, MEET ME IN MERAKI 4.40 & ANDROMEDAS KINGDOM 5.15.
Trevor Whelan (9%) is also 4% over the last 14 days with 1 winner from 26 rides. He has 4 rides including HAVANA DANCE 2.20, NILOUFAR 4.05, NEWFANGLED 4.40 & OWER STARTLIGHT 5.15. Of all the UK racecourses this jockey has his second best winning number with 17 at Bath and one of those jockeys who is better than his 9% national average.
OWNERS: N Sfrantzis (13%) has a single entry with a winning chance in course and distance winner last time out LOCAL BAY trained by Tony Carroll (10%) and ridden by Jack Doughty (7). This is a 6yo horse and he improved on recent efforts to win easily a 10-runner handicap here 8 days ago. Looks the one to beat based on that run but he needs a good early gallop to drop his head and there looks to be pace on in this race, will race in last place early on.
By the way, claimer Jack Doughty has a national average of 13% and not ridden a 2yo in a race to date, but he is 8-47 for 17% (+19.63) with 4yo+ on turf, so good figures in his first season weighing just 7st 9lb. He has 3 rides today and his mounts are worth a look!
RED FLAG: The vastly experienced Pat Cosgrave (12%) has 5 rides tomorrow at Bath and we note some interesting numbers.
His rides include VIOLET LOVE 2.20, ACCRUAL 2.55, ORGANIC 4.05, LENNON 4.40 & CEILIDH 5.15 and he looks good for a winner or even two! But, he carries a set of negative figures we have been aware of for some time and it has stopped us wagering on his good chances. At Bath he shows 20-170 for 12% (-65.73) so a strike rate that matches his national average of 12%. He has also recorded 22 second places, 19 third places & 18 fourth places. Those 20 wins look a weak number against 22 second places and that is without considering the other placed efforts.
His 5-year UK figures replicate this negative balance showing 134-1107 for 12% (-235.30) with 142 second places, 140 third places & 131 fourth places. We cannot find another experienced jockey of his class with a set of similar figures. Cosgrave has 3 rides for George Boughey and they combine to score 11-51 for 22% (-4.37) so numbers well above both national averages. The suggestion is a winner will come from this trio and our angle into the meeting!
Pertinence & Pertaining
1.45 (Winning favs: 31%)
KISS MY FACE (A Ralph) beaten favourite last time out, first time tongue strap, Jack Doughty rides
ROBEAM (M Mullineaux) drops from Class 4 to Class 6, Alec Voikhansky rides
AL SAYAH (N Mulholland) big improver over hurdles, Callum Hutchinson rides
2.20 (Winning favs: 44%)
VIOLET LOVE (G Boughey) winner in the last 7 days, RPR 85, Pat Cosgrave rides
MISS SHOW DOWN (C Cox) drops from Ascot Class 2 to Bath Class 4, John Fahy rides
KODIBEAT (P & O Cole) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, trainer 7-20 for 35% last 30 days. Georgia Dobie (3) rides
2.55 (Winning favs: 42%)
CAPO VATICANO (A Balding) drops from Class 2 to Class 5, Jason Watson rides
CARRIBEAN WIND (J Channon) form figures 22, trainer +£34.20 when one runner at a meeting. Edward Greatrex rides
3.30 (Winning favs: 31%)
FRANK THE SPARK (P Midgley) long traveller 246-miles, Kieran O'Neill rides
MEDIA GUEST (M Gillard) 1-35 but good consecutive second places, J F Egan rides
SUANNI (D Holland) C&D winner, latest win at Lingfield (AW) in April. Competitive form, Jason Watson rides
4.05
ORGANIC (G Boughey) winner in the last 7 days, 1-1 in this class, Pat Cosgrave rides
NILOUFAR (H Charlton) latest win at Lingfield in April, ran well upped in grade when 4 of 13 in Newbury 29 days ago, with 8 runners great each-way sort, Trevor Whelan rides
SURFER DUDE (O Sangster) drops from Class 4 to Class 6, Adam Farragher rides
4.40 (Winning favs: 32%)
BLENHEIM STAR (W Knight) seeking hat-trick, trainer 27% last 14 days with 4 winners. Jason Watson rides
MEET ME IN MERAKI (D Evans) C&D winner, Sean D Bowen (5) rides
LENNON (G Boughey) trainer 18% with handicap debutants, Pat Cosgrave rides
5.15 (Winning favs: 31%)
ANDROMODA'S KINGDOM (M Appleby) C&D winner, seeking hat-trick, Sean D Bowen (5) rides
HAVANA GOLDRUSH (J Flint) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out, front-runner, William Cox rides
LOCAL BAY (T Carroll) C&D winner last time out easily, 4lb rise might not stop him, Jack Doughty (7) rides
Bath races are usually run at a true gallop and, sometimes, horses start getting a bit too competitive a long way out. The sharp home turn makes it almost a specialist’s track and you see plenty of runners struggling around it. But, if you’re on one that rails and is fleet of foot, that bend can be a good point to grab an advantage, by turning the taps on while others are having trouble. The finish is quite stiff, so you need to get home, but you would love to be on a front-runner that handles the ups and downs.
– Jason Weaver
Paul Moon – The Racing Horse
