Chepstow Horse Races Tips for Today
The Racing Horse offers their Chepstow Racecourse Template for Friday 26 July 2024.
There is a 7-race card containing 5 Handicaps, a Classified Stakes and a Maiden Race.
The going is expected to be good to firm, good in places.
CHEPSTOW FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap Handicap
2yo 17-47 36% -9.36 5-15 33% +0.75
3yo 25-47 53% -3.31 43-96 45% +18.01
4yo+ 2-7 29% +2.00 65-199 33% +2.46
TOTAL 44-101 44% -10.67 113-310 36% +21.21
CHEPSTOW FAVOURITES (current year)
Non-handicap Handicap
2yo 1-4 25% -1.38 0-0 00% +0.00
3yo 2-4 50% -0.72 6-12 50% +1.47
4yo+ 0-0 00% +0.00 9-28 32% -4.13
TOTAL 3-8 38% -2.10 15-40 38% -2.66
TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chepstow last 5 years +/- E
Tony Carroll (10%) 18-180 10% -31.30 +0% 3
Rod Millman (12%) 16-111 14% -24.12 +2% 1
Archie Watson (14%) 14-60 23% +18.71 +9% 0
John O'Shea (8%) 14-128 11% -44.12 +3% 4
Ralph Beckett (18%) 13-41 32% +7.58 +14% 0
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chepstow last 5 years +/- R
Hollie Doyle (15%) 23-93 25% +8.29 +10% 0
Gina Mangan (10%) 17-112 15% -32.64 +5% 6
Rossa Ryan (16%) 13-79 16% -30.10 +0% 0
William Cox (5%) 13-113 12% +18.95 +7% 0
David Probert (12%) 13-128 10% -79.61 -2% 0
TOP 5 OWNERS at Chepstow last 5 years +/- E
Cross Racing Club (10%) 7-44 16% -6.62 +6% 1
Tidball & Millman (16%) 5-13 38% +10.00 +22% 0
P & A de Weck (8%) 5-42 12% -19.33 +4% 0
James & Llewellyn (15%) 4-12 33% +6.62 +18% 0
S R Whistance (15%) 4-13 31% +31.50 +16% 0
Upcoming Chepstow Fixtures:
Friday 26 July 2024
Thursday 8 August 2024
CHEPSTOW CONFIGURATION: Left handed, undulating. Oval-shaped track, about two miles in extent, with a run-in of 5 furlongs. All races at up to a mile are run on the straight course. While not an out-and-out galloping course, owing to the pronounced undulations, the track puts the emphasis on stamina almost regardless of ground.
FAVOURITES: It's official, Chepstow is a punter-friendly racecourse and we have the receipts. Over the past 5 years winning favourites at the course show 157-411 for 38.20% so +5% above the national average. Note, all 3 categories (age-groups) of winning favourites in handicaps produce a profit to level stakes and score well above the national average of 29%, something very unusual in a Racecourse Template! Best category for winning strike rate are 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps who show 25-47 for 53% (-3.31).
TRAINERS: Top trainer at the course is Tony Carroll (10%) has 3 runners including LOCAL BAY 7.20, HEADSHOT 7.55 & HAWAJES 7.55.
Rod Millman (12%) horses look out of form currently or at least gone off the boil and the recent numbers back the fact up. He is 1-25 for just 4% over the past 14 days and 0-23 within those figures. He runs the 6yo mare FOUR ADAAY 6.50 to be ridden by Danny Muscutt, and despite the form of the trainer she remains on a good mark and could surprise
JOCKEYS: Of the top 6 jockeys at the course only Gina Mangan (10%) is involved, she has 6 rides including DESTINY'S SPIRIT 5.40, JAX EDGE 6.50, MACS DILEMMA 7.20, KENSTONE 7.55, MY CLEMENTINE 8.25 & JENSON BENSON 8.55. She was our Red Flag at the last meeting and she duly obliged at 13/2, bigger prices were available! She is in great form currently and in the last month or so shows 4-19 for 1% (+6.00)
OWNERS: Cross Racing Club (10%) have a single entry in ROMANOVICH 7.55 trained by John O'Shea and ridden by William Carson.
RED FLAG: LUKE MORRIS (9%) has ridden 47 winners at Chepstow so now approaching 50 not out.
He combines 396-2141 for 18% when riding for Sir Mark Prescott and he has 2 rides for him at Chepstow from his 7 rides and also a 2yo for Ollie Sangster that catches the eye: BANTRY 5.40. BOB MALI 6.15 (O Sangster), RHUBARB 6.50, JAZZ SCENE 7.20 (M Prescott), HEADSHOT 7.55, OVERTURUE 8.25 (M Prescott) & TIMELY ESCAPE 8.55. He is the jockey to follow for this meeting!
Pertinence and Pertaining
5.40
BELIEVE YOU ME (H Main) C&D winner last time out, now 2-3 at the course and capable of following up, Jack Doughty (5) rides
DYNAMITE KATIE (G Harris) beaten favourite last time out, Kieran O'Neill rides
DESTINY'S SPIRIT (D F-Davis) course winner, weighted to win 63 > 46, Gina Mangan (3) rides
6.15
CUBAN STAR (J Jones) 3-9 first time up 2yo winners past 2 years, Dylan Hogan rides
SILCA BAY (E Johnson-Houghton) showed plenty first time out and may take a significant step forward under trainer astute with 2yos, George Downing rides
FAR ABOVE THE LAW (A Haynes) most experienced and top rated. Trainer +£12.33 with favourites and £34.33 with horses stepped up in trip. Kieran O'Neill rides
6.50
MOKAATIL (I Williams) weighted to win 85 > 55, well on top at finish under this rider over C&D last week and same mark, boasts obvious claims of following up. Millie Wonnacott (5) rides
JAX EDGE (C Mason) C&D winner now 2-4 at the course, Gina Mangan (3) rides
7.20
JAZZ SCENE (M Prescott) beaten favourite last time out, Hamilton win boosted by runner-up since, latest run probably too soon, Luke Morris rides
MACS DILEMMA (J O'Shea) 4 course wins, weighted to win 74 > 71, trainer won 2 of the last 10 runnings. Gina Mangan (3) rides
7.55
FACT OR FABLE (J Moore) in reasonable form, including good second in similar race at Ffos Las last month. Millie Wonnacott (5) rides
KENSTONE (A Wintle) C&D winner, 0-14 for 2023 but good 3 of 9 over C&D 48 days ago, Gina Mangan (3) rides
HAWAJES (T Carroll) Southwell winner in February. Good 2 of 9 in Leicester Classified 8 days ago, now significantly back up in trip. Jack Doughty (5) rides
8.25
MONKEY MISS (D & C Kubler) trainer 12-37 for 32% past 30 days, trainer +£30.19 when one runner at a meeting. William Carson rides
MY CLEMENTINE (A Wintle) C&D winner last time out, likely to remain competitive if cheek pieces work again. Gina Mangan (3) rides
8.55
MAMDOH (O Burrows) trainer 22% with horses 10f+ and 22% in mid-season, Danny Muscutt rides
BOBACIOUS (G Nicholls) beaten favourite last time out, Joshua Bryan rides
DAPPLED LIGHT (A Wintle) weighted to win 56 > 52, Jack Doughty (5) rides
Chepstow takes a fair bit of getting. Because it’s so up hill and down dale, stamina has to come into play and it’s also worth noting that the straight is quite long, meaning that some horses start to race a lot earlier than is ideal. If you’re on one that wants to make the running, for example, you’ll often get a few keen to take you on earlier than you might like, so patience is vital for a jockey. Long-striding horses can often go well on the straight track but, as it’s quite stiff, they definitely need to get home.
– Jason Weaver
Paul Moon – The Racing Horse