Ludlow Horse Racing Tips for Today
The Racing Horse offers their Ludlow RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Monday 21 November 2022.
There is a 6-race card, and the going is expected to be good, good to soft in places.
Winning favourites (5 years) Non-handicap Handicap Hurdle 61-118 52% -4.72 47-112 42% +15.27 Chase 12-36 33% -14.89 49-124 40% +1.62 NHF 16-30 53% +16.25 0-0 Total 89-184 48% -3.36 96-236 41% +16.89 TOP 5 TRAINERS at LUDLOW past 5 years +/- E F O'Brien (17%) 23-109 21% -31.33 +4% 2 N Henderson (23%) 21-92 23% -34.15 +0% 0 D Skelton (19%) 19-95 20% -32.81 +1% 3 P Nicholls (24%) 17-71 24% -20.64 +0% 0 P Hobbs (15%) 17-83 20% +0.67 +5% 1 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at LUDLOW past 5 years +/- R P Brennan (18%) 19-78 24% -22.84 +6% 0 S T-Davies (15%) 18-133 14% -42.30 -1% 0 H Skelton (22%) 16-60 27% -8.26 +5% 0 N de Boinville (22%) 16-63 25% -20.13 +3% 0 TOP 5 OWNERS at LUDLOW for past 5 years +/- E J P McManus (17%) 8-50 16% -0.90 -1% 0 R Brookhouse (14%) 5-12 42% +23.53 +28% 0 B Davies (11%) 5-20 25% +8.25 +14% 0 Coley Porter (42%) 4-4 100 +3.99 +58% 0 Pitchall Stud (30%) 4-6 67 +5.45 +37% 0 FIXTURES Monday 21 November 2022 Wednesday 30 November 2022 (%): NATIONAL AVERAGE SAW: Since a win E: Entries R: Rides
FAVOURITES – One of the reasons we chose to produce a Ludlow Racecourse Template is because we wanted to alert members to the fabulous strike rates of winning favourites at this course across the board!
We believe the views of Mick Fitzgerald sum up the course precisely (see below).
Over the past 5 years winning favourites show 185-420 for 44.08% which is a huge strike rate given/measured against the national average of 32%. Those numbers produce a level stake profit of +13.53
NHF races produce star numbers with 16-30 for 53% (+16.25). Ironically, it is the chasers in non-handicaps that produce the worst figures scoring 12-36 for 33% (-14.89). In conclusion these are great figures for winning favourites, and it does not look a good idea to oppose them unless you have the perceived value and good reason for doing so.
TRAINERS – Whilst every Dan Skelton (19%) runner at Ludlow needs consideration, we note Feral O'Brien (17%) outscores him at this course at a better strike rate. They have 3 & 2 runners respectively. Philip Hobbs (15%) has a single entry and scores at +5% above his national average at the course.
Our hot trainer angle could be key, 6 of them have a single entry and Chris Gordon, who has been in great form for a while now, has 2.
HOT TRAINERS 22/10/2022 to 20/11/2022 +/- E C Gordon (16%) 10-35 29% -2.00 +13% 2 J Snowden (17%) 9-34 27% -6.00 +10% 1 D Pipe (14%) 14-56 25% +15.00 +11% 1 H Daly (14%) 7-30 23% +6.00 +9% 1 K Bailey (17%) 9-41 22% -3.00 +5% 1 H Fry (18%) 6-32 19% -1.12 +1% 1 A Honeyball (21%) 7-40 18% -14.00 -3% 1
JOCKEYS – None of our top jockeys on the leader board have a ride at Ludlow on Monday, in fact, generally the quality of jockeys riding this meeting is not at the highest, most have gone to Kempton!
Tom Cannon (15%) is one of the exceptions and is 9-51 for 18% (-5.00) and has 3 rides, he is a good bet to ride a winner!
- Cold Jockeys: Richard McLernon (9%) is 38 rides over 29 days without a winner and has 1 ride for the inform trainer Anthony Honeyball (sole runner). James Bowen (14%) has also started a losing run of 26 over 20 days and he has just the 1 ride also.
OWNERS – None of the top owners at Ludlow have a runner on Monday.
1.05
BRENTFORD HOPE (R Hughes) Smart Flat winner, far from disgraced when fifth in pattern company at Haydock (10.4f) in August. Tough to beat if taking to hurdling, Daryl Jacob rides and 44% on hurdling favourites
WESTERN ZEPHYR (C Longsdon) drops from Grade 2 to Class 4, Sean Bowen rides
MAJOR FORTUNE (T Lacey) trainer shows profit of £63.18 when one runner at meeting (hurdles), Tom Bellamy rides
1.35
JEAN GENIE (T Vaughan) beaten favourite last time out, Charlie Price (3) rides
BORN AT MIDNIGHT (B Turner) In control when falling 2 out at C&D on final run last season, after year off made amends when readily getting off the mark at Taunton (23f) 11 days ago. Can continue progress, Harry Kimber (5) rides
AIRTOTHETHRONE (T Vaughan) Runner-up on hurdling bow at Ffos Las (20f) last November. After almost year off, finished well-beaten fourth latest, now makes chase/handicap debut, Alan Johns rides
2.10
FARMER'S GAMBLE (D Skelton) beaten favourite last time out, Tristan Durrell rides (21 winners to date)
LANGLEY HUNDRED (P Hobbs) winner in the last 7 days, unpenalised, rates an obvious selection but Elizabeth Gale (10) rides? She won on this horse last week and now 1-33 for 3% lifetime.
2.45
ONLY MONEY (C Gordon) hot inform trainer, 23% with chasers up to 2m3f, Tom Cannon rides
DESQUE DE L'ISLE (V Williams) beaten favourite last time out, trainer 21% with chasers up to 2m3f, Shane Quinlan rides
3.15
MA BELLE NOIRE (H Fry) low mileage, trainer 20% early season, Sean Bowen rides
IF I SAY (C Longsdon) beaten favourite last time out, Bradley Roberts (7) rides
3.45
SEA THE CLOUDS (J Snowden) good start to hurdling career, trainer shows profit of £10.48 with hurdling favourites, 21% with hurdlers up to 2m2f, Will Featherstone (10) rides
GREAT HEART'JAC (F O'Brien) top trainer at track and 21%, Jack Hogan (6) rides
RED VISION (D McCain) Winner of 2 novice hurdles in March. Off 4 months, then beaten 22 lengths into second in 2m Bangor handicap on reappearance. More needed but this conditional handicap, Peter Kavanagh (3) rides
“My old boss, Nicky Henderson, loves Ludlow and the list of horses to have won there reads like a who’s who of jump racing stars. That’s because, in order to be successful, you need one with a lot of speed – and you can win races over two miles with a non-stayer, just as long it wastes little time in the air. The fences are easy – some horses practically hurdle them – but, until they re-sited the first fence in the straight, we used to call it ‘Trappy Trevor’. It doesn’t seem to catch so many out these days” – Mick Fitzgerald
Paul Moon – The Racing Horse
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