Christmas Racing
King George
It doesn’t look like Fact To File is going to be lining up here, but we’re still in for a great race.
Gaelic Warrior heads the market and understandably so, given that he’s won his last 3, including a scintillating win in the John Durkan last time. You have to wonder if that race will have left its mark, as he went so hard and had to fight to get back up past Fact To File. He obviously has speed because he’s an Arkle winner, but I’m just not sure he’ll be that suited by Kempton.
Following his win at Ascot, Jango Baie deserves to be near the top of the betting. He was seriously impressive. A bit like Gaelic Warrior, he has speed because he won an Arkle, but I do think he’s a bit of a grinder. I can’t help but feel the Ascot race fell apart a bit and that it was slightly flattering. He has a jumping mistake in him too, which he won’t get away with in a race like this.
I can’t get away from The Jukebox Man; this horse is made for jumping fences at Kempton. He is so slick. His jumping is so electrically fast and accurate that the jumping and speed test this race provides is going to see him at his peak. It was an incredibly pleasing comeback run at Haydock where he did what he was entitled to.
I have no doubt that his season revolves around this race and, providing a smooth run round, he will produce a career best. Whether that is good enough, we won’t know until the time. But the way in which he jumps, we could see something special. The other advantage with him is that we know he stays 3 miles, as he won the Kauto Star here last year.
Recommended Bet
Back The Jukebox Man @ 5/1
Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase
I’m hoping they turn Majborough around quite quickly and run him here following his slightly disappointing second in the Hilly Way. His jumping wasn’t any better than it was last season, but the engine is most definitely there. There is no doubt he has to improve in that department, but that’s why I think Leopardstown is the place to back him. Hopefully he runs and I think he will, as they need to get jumping practice into him.
The latter part of chase races at Leopardstown demands very little when it comes to jumping, which is a huge positive factor for Majborough. There is a long way between the second last and the last, then a good run into the line. Providing he doesn’t make any calamitous mistakes, I envisage his raw ability seeing him through this, even with some jumping blemishes. If he jumps cleanly, then everyone else is playing for places.
Majborough does have a tendency to go left, and that’s better at Leopardstown than it would have been at Cork, so that combined with some race-fitness should easily be enough for him to turn the tables with Found A Fifty.
Marine Nationale will be having his first run of the season, and I can’t imagine he’ll be close to primed for it.
Recommended Bet
Back Majborough @ 9/4
Savills Chase
Fact To File looks to be going here over Kempton, but I’m not convinced he wants 3 miles. His best trip is two and a half, but I’d rather see him try 2 miles again rather than 3 as I don’t think stamina is something he has in abundance. That, somewhat, opens the market up.
Galopin Des Champs could return here, but he could also go to Tramore on New Years Day for a likely easier option on his seasonal bow.
I feel there is value in Fastorslow here. He also has the option of Kempton, but I imagine this will end up being a slightly “softer” option and so Martin Brassil will elect to keep him in Ireland. I would say his trainer was extremely satisfied with his return 3rd in the John Durkan, where he was allowed to run his own race rather than engaging in a battle with the top 2. He jumped well and beat the rest.
Stepping back up in distance will certainly suit Fastorslow and given previous form over the distance, beating Galopin Des Champs and finishing second to him here last year. If he runs, I can’t see him being anywhere near the 14/1 currently on offer.
Recommended Bet
Back Fastorslow @ 14/1
Alex Peperell
