Trainers to follow in September. When Autumn Leaves Start To Fall
The month of September brings a change of season. The warmth of summer gives way to mornings with a touch of chill in the air, the evenings come earlier, as the days shorten and with it the ending of turf evening meeting.
Hard to believe but by the time you read this we’ll be just two months from Cheltenham’s first meeting of the National Hunt season.
For punters September can be a tough month, as the change in season often ushers in a change in the weather. The good to firm ground of the previous months can quickly be replaced by softer underfoot conditions.
September is also a month when those flat horses who were given a summer break return for an autumn campaign adding a further layer of complication to form study.
It all makes for some interesting weeks which are all dependent on the weather.
Will there be an ‘Indian Summer’ or will it be a month of wind and rain?
Whatever the weather does. There’s plenty of great flat racing to look forward to both sides of the Irish Sea.
It all begins with the 32Red Sprint Cup festival at Haydock at the start of September. Quickly followed by the St Leger Festival & Irish Champions Weekend. Ayr’s Western Meeting takes centre stage later a week later and at the end of the month Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire Meetings brings down the curtain on what is sure to be an exciting few weeks of racing.
In last month’s Acorn’s I highlighted those trainers who have done well with their runners in August. That theme continues, as I look at those trainers worth following during September.
There are six trainers, three of them on the flat, two on the all-weather and one over jumps.
As ever the excellent www.horseracebase.com with its mine of detailed information and stats is the starting point for this month’s investigation.
Before analysing further, to keep the data as relevant as possible, my starting point is all flat turf races run over the last two years only.
The only specific filters I have used at this point are that the runner’s SP is 20/1 or shorter and the trainers had a minimum of 25 runners in the period under research.
September Trainers – Flat Turf
Let’s begin by looking at the top trainers in the month ordered by winners on the turf.
John Gosden – The first trainers’ runners to catch the eye are John Gosdens.
He’s fourth in the table numerically but has an excellent 28% win-strike rate during the month.
Digging a bit further and looking at non-handicap & handicap races:
There’s not much to see here with no real difference between the two race types.
Now breaking down by age and race class:
September is month when the John Gosden juveniles are getting into the winner’s enclosure with a near 32%-win strike rate.
His runners go well in all race classes during the month but his record in Class 1 races looks good with a 34%-win strike rate.
Looking at race fitness and horses runs in the previous 90-days:
His runners that had 1 to 3 races in the previous 90-days look interesting.
Finally checking by last time out placing and days since last run.
Looking at his last time out placing stats, his racecourse debutants are worth opposing. However, a healthy profit can be made by looking at his runners who finished first or second on their last start.
If we look at his 2yo and 3yo runners racing within 21 to 75-days since their last run has produced the following set of results:
They have performed 61% better than market expectations. The high chi score indicates this is down to skill and not luck and given we have over 21 Exp/Wins the sample size is good. The trainer has made a profit with such runners in each of the last four years.
System 55: Back John Gosden 2yo & 3yo runners in September who last raced 21 to 75 days previously and are 20/1 or under in the betting.
Clive Cox – Clive Cox lurks at the bottom of trainer’s winners list with 30 winners.
Breaking it down by non-handicap & handicap races.
We don’t have to look too far as his non-handicap runners are clearly the ones to focus on in the month.
Digging further and looking at career runs and horses age:
Those runners making their racecourse debut or had one previous career run for the trainer are 3 winners from 38 runners 8% -8.5 A/E 0.65 12 placed 32%.
He’s 0 winners from 10 runners 1 placed with his older horses which means you can likely focus on his 2yo and 3yo’s.
System 68: Clive Cox September Back 2yo & 3yo runners that have had 2+ career runs and are 20/1 & under in the betting.
Kevin Ryan – Our final flat trainer is Kevin Ryan.
The Yorkshire based trainer has had a 14%-win strike rate overall with his runners sent off 20/1 & under, during the period under research.
Looking at his record with such runners in September, that increases to 18% and his runners have even been profitable to follow.
Firstly, looking at his runners by SP:
He’s had a handful of big priced winners, but it might be wise to concentrate in his case on those 10/1 & under in the betting. Such runners have produced the following results:
Those of his runners that were either making their racecourse debut or had finished 1st or 2nd on their last start.
A near 34% win-strike rate is excellent and such runners are performing 59% better than market expectations. The Chi score is also good and with Exp/Wins at 14 we have a good sample size.
Looking at the results by year.
An excellent 2018 for the trainer but also a profit in each of the previous four years. There’s no reason why another profit cannot be achieved this time around.
System 69: Back Kevin Ryan’s September turf runners that are 10/1 & under in the betting that are either making their racecourse debut or finished first or second on their last run.
September Trainers: All Weather
Having looked at our turf trainers it’s time to look at all-weather racing which really starts to crank into gear during the month.
Let’s begin by looking at the top trainers in the month ordered by winners on the all-weather.
Two trainers worth analysing further are Hugo Palmer & David Simcock.
Hugo Palmer
Starting with age:
The standout age group for the trainer are his 3-year-old runners. Breaking it down by year:
He had as many runners last year as he had in the previous three years. Apart from 2015 you would have made decent profits in the past three seasons.
System 70: Back Hugo Palmer trained 3-year-olds on the all-weather that are 20/1 & under in the betting.
David Simcock – Now moving onto this month’s second all-weather trainer David Simcock.
The Newmarket based trainer has had 16 winners during the month since 2015. All but one of those winners was in the first three in the betting.
Breaking it down by year:
Three profitable years out of four. Although there was a slight blip in 2017, five of his six winners did place.
System 71: Back David Simcock all weather runners in September that are in the first three in the betting and start at 20/1 or shorter.
September Trainers – National Hunt
Having looked at our turf & all-weather trainers it’s time to take a quick look at the National Hunt trainers.
Let’s begin by looking at the top trainers in the month ordered by winners over jumps:
The standout trainer in that list isn’t Gordon Elliott or Willie Mullins but it is Charlie Longsdon’s record that takes the eye.
Charlie Longsdon
Breaking the trainer’s runners down by National Hunt race type.
His hurdlers are performing reasonably well but nothing special. Focusing on his chasers and bumper runners looks the way to go. These runners have produced the following set of results.
Looking at his results by year:
A profit from each of the last four years and there’s no reason why that can’t continue in 2019.
System 72: Back Charlie Longsdon’s September National Hunt runners in Chase & National Hunt races only, that are 20/1 & under in the betting.
Like many of these methods. The above figures are based on historic data and whilst history has a good habit of repeating itself, it often doesn’t.
It is important to remember that these bets are purely for the month of September and as such there maybe too many or indeed to few qualifiers for you, depending on your betting strategies.
Until next month.
John