King George, Goodwood, York & St Leger

King George

Calandagan and Jan Brueghel can’t be split at the head of the ante post market. That’s fair given how closely matched they were in the Coronation Cup. Calandagan has since won a Group 1 in France. They set a high bar.

If the ground is on the easy side then Kalpana will have her say. But I must admit, I was all over her for the Pretty Polly where she couldn’t get the better of Whirl. Kalpana stays a mile and a half well, but Whirl powered away from her late on, which has brought me some concern with regards to Kalpana moving forward at this level.

At the price, I think Amiloc is worth a bet here. He has done nothing but improve, winning all five starts so far with each one being better than the last. I love the way he races. He’s a bit lazy and takes some cajoling into the race, but when he hits top gear he is a seriously powerful horse. Both his runs at Goodwood this season have shown how strongly he hits the line and over these distances, that’s the most important thing.

He may not have won by as far at Royal Ascot, but he had the race won 2f out and had the right horse in second in Zahrann. Amiloc showed he could win a different way and that’s hugely important with regards to tactical versatility.

Of course, Amiloc has to improve again, but there is nothing to suggest he won’t.

The main concern I would have is that if it’s fast ground, I imagine there’s a chance he doesn’t run. As vibes after Royal Ascot were that he’d like a bit more give. But I’m going to take the chance.

Recommended Bet

Back Amiloc @ 10/1

Lennox Stakes

This is a very open market at the moment and trying to decipher what is going to run is a little tricky. But one who I’d be surprised to not see run would be Paborus for Ed Bethell. He was bought by Wathnan after winning a conditions race at Thirsk with ease and so will likely have some lofty targets in his future, with the Lennox looking an ideal race.

Paborus was well-supported in the betting before the Criterion at York in June and he ran ok in third. The winner, Quinault, got his own way out in front that day and was never getting reeled in. The market support for Paborus was significant though and I wouldn’t be giving up on him just yet, as he’s been a progressive horse.

The likes of Kinross and Audience are nearer the end of their careers than the start and so this is an opportunity to blow the 7f division open.

Recommended Bet

Back Paborus @ 25/1

Nunthorpe Stakes

If Charles Darwin runs, he will bid to be the first two-year-old winner of the Nunthorpe since Kingsgate Native in 2007. Some have tried and come close, including Acapulco and The Platinum Queen, who both finished second. Charles Darwin looks like a very good two year old, but I think he’s a dreadful price at 5/2.

Mgheera is a sprinter on the up and is 2 from 2 since joining Ed Walker from France. She won a Group 3 at Longchamp before the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock, the form of which has been boosted massively with American Affair, Washington Heights and Rumstar all winning big races since (the former being the Group 1 at Royal Ascot). Mgheera looks ready to tackle a Group 1 and given how strong her form looks from last time, she’s a big price.

Recommended Bet

Back Mgheera @ 14/1

St Leger

We’ve got a bit of time until the St Leger, but I want to back Merchant now before he wins again. He’s pencilled in for the Gordon Richards Stakes at Glorious Goodwood and potentially the Great Voltigeur after that too.

Since stepping up to a mile and a half, Merchant has taken his form to a new level, winning both starts. He bolted in at York before claiming the King George V handicap at Royal Ascot, where he beat Irish Derby runner-up Serious Contender. That was a seriously impressive win as he came from way back and powered down the home the straight.

William Haggas seems to think he’s very good and he’s been given an entry in the King George, which backs that up. He can do everything, and stamina looks a really strong suit of his. The way he’s improving he definitely looks as though he can shape up into a St Leger horse and I’m excited by him.

Recommended Bet

Back Merchant @ 12/1

Alex Peperell

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