Trainers for the All Weather
Research Corner
We greatly value David Renham’s research articles as he is the master of investigating the stats, and so given his earlier article on the All Weather and given the often unpredictable UK weather during the winter months, we thought we’d take a dive into the All Weather using his research as our guide to see if we can flag up some possible trainer angles to add to our betting portfolio.
If successful all credit will go to Dave, if a disaster, on our head be it!
Chelmsford
Dave flagged several trainers who are worth staying on side with at Chelmsford and we can see that backed up in the figures below.
Combined the trainers of Ralph Beckett, John Quinn, Michael Bell, Charlie Hills and Charlie Johnston would blindly have turned a profit in four of the past six years.
And the best races to back in, in terms of return would have been the Non Handicaps.
These figures here though are skewed with a couple of large, priced winners in the Non Handicaps, notably 33/1 paying 60.43 Betfair SP and 40/1 paying 87.98 BFSP. Removing those runners going off at 33/1 or larger paints a different picture.
Backing in all races we still show a nice profit for these trainers and in fact produce a pretty much break even or profit for each of the years shown limiting our bets to those runners going off at less than 33/1 in Non Handicaps.
The figures for Charlie Johnston are limited for 2023/2024 since taking over from Mark Johnston and so to that end we are going to ignore his runners for the time being.
The bulk of the profits from these trainers have come in the 3rd and 4th quarters of the year, so we may have missed the boat for this year.
But we like the idea of loading this one to test for December and see where that takes us.
Ideally, we always like three months of testing but we as we are coming late into the game, we will see what December delivers and if positive, put this forward for 2025.
A combination of trainers means that we are potentially backing multiple runners in a race, but equally that will mean we have more than one bite at a potential profit.
System: JO-121-95-12-24
Kempton AW
Dave’s research picked up some useful angles from the following four trainers when backing their runners on the Kempton All Weather
But unlike our previous example the AE Actual/Expected return is below the magic figure of 1.00 and the suggestion is that these winners are short priced.
Blind backing would see us end up poorly though as combined we would have lost in the previous 5 years.
This is why it pays to look at the alternative angles offered up by Dave in his article as our simpler approach means that we will not look further at Kempton All Weather.
As has been pointed out concentrating on the top end of the market has the potential to offer up more lucrative returns.
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