The Pep Talk – The Oaks – 31st May
We’re nearing the end of the jumps season so I’m switching my attention to the flat, with the first classics of the season not far away. I already advised Fallen Angel for the 1000 Guineas and I’m still feeling good about that one. I’ve only had one other bet for the flat season so far, which I’m sharing below.
I just don’t know enough about running plans to have any other bets at this stage and the other markets available just aren’t appealing yet.
The Oaks – The market for the Oaks is a bit uninspiring in a way, as a pair of Aidan O’Brien fillies lead the way then it’s 16/1 and bigger the rest. That tells me there is a slight lack of competition in the division this year and if anything is to challenge the top pair, they will need to emerge in the next month or so.
For that reason, I think Ylang Ylang is a decent bet here.
She had a bit of an up and down season last year, winning her first couple of starts easily before bombing out in the Moyglare. Her best performance came over a mile in the Fillies Mile at Newmarket, where she was very strong at the finish.
She seems better ridden more patiently and it seems to really bring her stamina into play as she winds up and hits top gear, she can sustain her effort.
Based on what we saw from her in her final couple of runs last season, I imagine she’ll improve for stepping up distance this year.
I don’t think she’ll have enough to beat Fallen Angel in the Guineas, but the Oaks will be a different story. But if she were to win the Guineas, she’ll shorten markedly for the Oaks.
Opera Singer is at the top of the market with Ylang Ylang, but she missed a bit of time and O’Brien has stated the earliest likely starting point for her will be the Irish Guineas. That is only a week before the Oaks, so I’d be surprised if she went to both races, which paves the way for Ylang Ylang to be the stable number one.
She cost an eye-watering 1.5 million guineas and I like that O'Brien wasn’t shy of running her last season, as those are the types he tends to do best with.
There are middle-distance horses in her pedigree, and everything points to her being a high class filly over those sorts of trips this campaign.
Recommended Bet
Back Ylang Ylang @ 8/1
Alex Peperell
Editor’s note: We posted the recommended bet in the Platinum Members Area on 14th April, the price quoted was generally available at that time. We have also added the above runner to our tracker as a reminder.
