Betting on Golf
Hi All
Whilst On Course Profits is primarily focussed on the horse racing scene, since the start of 2023 we have also been running a live trial on betting on Golf both across the main PGA Tour as well as the DP World Tour which encompasses what used to be known as the European Tour.
Those of you that haven’t previously dabbled with betting on Golf may be thinking why not and am I missing out on an opportunity?
We believe that there is indeed a punting opportunity and with an event going on mostly through the calendar year there is plenty of action to get involved with and with dedicated TV channels such as Sky Sports Golf you can while away a few hours watching how the player(s) you have bet on are getting on over the four rounds.
Ask yourself a question….when was the last time you backed a 60/1 winner or maybe even a 110/1 winner plus a 110/1 placer and 50/1 placer in the same event?
At the time of writing the PGA Tour are getting set to stage the second Major Golf event of the year with the US Open at Los Angeles Country Club.
A quick look at the head of the betting market via Oddschecker shows the following:-
As you can Scottie Scheffler heads the market at a general price of 6/1. Now consider that there are 155 other players competing for the prestigious title including the majority of which are from the top ranked golfers in the World.
Originally there were a record 10,187 entries, and the final line up will consist of 10 previous winners, 19 amateurs, and 19 local qualifiers.
So you have 155 opponents that on their day are more than capable of playing out of their skin to lift the trophy after 4 rounds and 72 holes of golf. Does the 6/1 tempt you when considered in that context?
Yes Scottie is a proven winner since he turned pro in 2018 and has experienced playing in 104 professional Golf events….but has only won 6 times to date! Just from a simple math’s perspective that represents a 5.77% strike rate or converted to odds would represent roughly a 16/1 shot.
Looking at the list of odds on Oddschecker it shows that 33 of the field are priced at 90/1 or less which means that 123 players can be backed at 100/1 or more….let that sink in for a moment.
Alongside the outright winner the bookmakers also offer Each-Way betting which on the US Open is generally 8 places although the Betfair Sportsbook and Corals have 12 places on offer with the former at 1/5 odds for a place.
Let’s say you either have knowledge of golf or maybe you have read Ben Coley’s column in the Sporting Life and you fancy someone like the American golfer Russell Henley who can be backed at 110/1 with bet365 who are offering 8 places on their Each-Way terms. That works out at 22/1 for a top eight finish, so Scottie could win and you still have 7 other places to land your EW bet at much bigger odds.
A quick visit to the Betfair Exchange shows that you can even back Russell Henley at 140 in the win only market and the further away from the market favourites the bigger the win only prices are on the Exchanges.
If we refer back the live trial that is being carried out at On Course Profits we have tips in the US Open that can be backed on the exchanges all the way up to 960 in decimal terms, 959/1 in old money but you would also have to factor in the commission which is generally 2-5% off your winnings.
That particular Golf Tip is generally priced up at 275/1 with a few bookies offering those odds with Each-Way terms of 12 places.
Now we have set the scene on the level of the opportunity that Betting on Golf may have to offer the next and most obvious question for those newbies out there is how do you select a golfer from a field of 156 players that has a decent chance of either winning or make the places that the bookies offer in their Each-Way terms?
The OCP Golf Trial has two facets to it, firstly Robert Reed who already runs a successful horse racing service called Winning Favourites, is a keen amateur golfer himself and has refined a method to help him hone in on a shortlist of potential contenders.
He considers the most recent three seasons and looks for players that have consistently made the cut. For those of you not familiar with that term at the halfway stage, after 2 rounds, the organisers whittle the numbers down roughly by half by selecting a total score which is used to determine which players continue on to play the remaining 2 rounds.
From there Robert considers the odds and in the main discounts the bookies favourites as they are too short in the betting. He then considers if the shortlisted players have a track record at the course the event is being played at.
Roberts’s method clearly has merit as at the time of writing his Golf Trial selections have recorded a profit of 52pts coupled with a tidy +12% Return on Investment.
The other facet to the OCP Golf Trial is the Value Picks which totally ignore most of the factors that you would normally expect to be considered such as current form, experience of the course etc. Instead it uses the market itself to highlight Golfers that appear to be overpriced either in the Win or Each-Way betting.
If we now use our earlier example Golfer in the US Open, Russell Henley, the betting exchange odds for a place generally don’t match the bookmaker’s terms but the exchanges do offer a Top 5 and Top 10 finish market.
Without trying to baffle the reader with maths if you take the average of Top 5 and Top 10 it is the equivalent of Top 7.50 which is pretty close to the bet365 Each-Way terms of 8 places.
The Each-Way price on bet365 for Russell Henley was 110/1 so this pays out at 1/5 the odds for placing in the top 8 which is 22/1.
The exchange prices are at the time of placing the bets were 21 and 7.60 respectively so the average is 14.30.
So our interpretation is that the 110/1 odds which offer 8 places at 1/5 odds means that the place odds of 22/1 (100/22) equates to a probability of 4.55%.
If we now consider the average odds available on the exchanges which were 14.30 (100/14.3) that equates to a probability of 6.99%.
In simple terms the place odds offered by the bookmakers on this particular golfer are +53% higher than the market expectation of the exchanges.
However we also need to consider the possibility that the golfer actually wins which is one half of the Each-Way wager.
If we refer back to the bet365 odds which were 110/1 that equates to a probability of (100/110) of 0.909%, whilst the exchange outright win odds were 140 so if take off 5% commission this works out to 133 and a probability (100/133) of 0.752%.
Clearly that reduces the overall value that the wager may offer but even taking that into account we still have a value edge of circa 15-20%.
Since the start of 2023 the Value Picks have achieved a profit of +120 points coupled with a +15% Return on Investment.
The selections from Robert’s method and the Value Picks are made available to Platinum Members on Wednesday afternoons allowing plenty of time to get the bets on for the first Round which starts on Thursday’s, although the time can vary depending on the time zone the event is taking place in.
In conclusion if you are looking to add to your punting portfolio we would suggest that you take a closer look at Betting on Golf.
Fore!
Steve Carter
Since we ran these trials we now have an established golf tipping service
