Pens from FormHorse Select
Hi everyone, Paul Slattery here again.
Weight And Class
With the flat season just around the corner I thought I would give a few pointers towards the upcoming action. This jumps season has been a bit of a washout (literally at times). Too many abandonments and races run on bad ground have led to a fair few horses underperforming. This in turn is taking us towards one of the most open Cheltenham Festivals in recent years. Though the flat is not immune to these things it always feels to me that the form stands up better over the course of the season.
To be honest this section can be applied to both codes and of course All-Weather racing as well. It is a general overview of weight and class that can be applied to any race type. Of course, the most common race where the effects come into play would be handicap races.
Now, in my experience the class of the horse is more important than weight carried. That is to say that horses with more weight tend to be the classier animals. The simple fact is they can run faster than the lower rated runners. Even on bad ground. You will often hear the saying “he is at the right end of the handicap” meaning a lower rated horse with less weight. Now unless this horse is unexposed and going up through the grades it means nothing.
Another misconception, “back bottom weights on heavy ground”. Again, unless you have a solid reason or solid reasons to oppose the higher rated horses it can mean nothing form wise. Yes, bad ground can slow down a high weighted horse more than it normally would, but this is usually if the race is run at a fast pace or they cannot dominate. In a slowly run race the class will still usually come to the fore on bad ground as well.
One interesting angle where this doesn’t stand up is a race with draw and track bias. You are favourably drawn with the right run style against better horses badly drawn, maybe needing to be held up. This can also apply in conditions races where horses with seemingly uphill tasks at the weights can defy the odds. Generally, they will come into the race in good form looking like they are going up in class. If you can spot this type of scenario, you can find some decent priced winners as they are usually overpriced on the rating alone. This is an angle I have used for many years now and I have had some big priced winners doing this.
Hopefully, I am not shooting myself in the foot telling you!
Now, you will need to know about the draw bias but not at all the tracks. Also draw bias can change when the ground gets soft for example. Not all tracks but at some it can completely turn things on its head, and we need to be aware of that.
Getting back to handicaps more specifically and the fact that the higher class horses will generally outperform the lower class horses.
Backing horses dropping in class is far more favoured by the stats than backing one going up in class. I seem to remember it was almost double on some studies that a class dropper would deliver in a lower class. Of course, the stats are over a certain timeframe or number of bets but in one over the course of 2000+ bets the class dropper won 36% whereas the class riser only won 19% of the time with those staying in the same class winning 25% of the time. There were far fewer horses that went down in class compared to going up. Something like only a 3rd in comparison.
Now these are old stats, it would be interesting to see some more up to date but I suspect the scenario to be similar. Now of course I am only giving you the strike rate here. I don’t know the return on investment or level stakes profit. It could even be that there is more level stakes profit going up in class. Personally, I am not keen on horses going up in class in handicaps no matter what the stats say. As I said before, the only exception to this would be an unexposed horse ahead of his handicap mark or possibly a horse that has previously won in that class before. With this type we need to see if the ability still remains to deliver again back up in class. These two types will almost certainly be where the winners are coming from going up in class.
Writing this has reminded me of being on course in the early days and one of the angles that I still use to this day. I make no secret that I like winning form, horses with penalties etc. Well, the trainer that got me started on this really was Martin Pipe. Anyone remember him??
A total genius. Could turn average horses into winning machines. He was way ahead of his time, using training methods that others hadn’t even thought of at the time. He got his horses so fit that they would literally just keep on galloping. Invariably they would make all the running as well, particularly over hurdles which was my main focus with him. As a punter I always feel it is better to be making the running or at least up with the pace no matter what kind of race. The stats bear this out as well. He was breaking records on seasonal winners and one of the keys to this was his placing of horses. He would very rarely run a horse out of its class so to speak.
Many of his horses at the time would run up sequences of wins in low grade races but the main key to this success was they were almost always running in the same or a lower class.
This always stuck with me and I thought if he operates in this way almost exclusively then as a punter I need to try and think in the same way.
I think at the time he said something about it “seriously reducing the chances of losing by backing or running horses in the same or a lower class ideally.”
There are of course still a few scenarios where class can be negated. As ever with this great game, nothing is ever cut and dried. As I said before, a bad draw, being held up particularly in a big field against reasonable opposition or on a tight track. In fact, being in a bad position in a race is bad news no matter who you are. The class can only be shown if given a reasonable chance to do so. So as I said before in the earlier example with conditions races, there can also be opportunities to get some good value going against the class angle when the opportunity arises as they are generally near the head of the market.
As I have mentioned about the draw here it reminded me of something from back when I worked in the bookies. As you can imagine I do have a few stories from those days and from my days on course. The memory is a bit sketchy though so I need to be careful with the “facts”, particularly with the on course stuff as I don’t want to offend anyone! However, this is one I thought I remembered well but when I started checking it out I realised I had the wrong track and maybe the wrong thoughts about the bet?!!
|
The rest of this article is for Platinum members. You've just seen what our experts do with publicly available data — the Platinum section is where the specific angles, numbers and actionable conclusions live. Platinum members also get daily system selections in their inbox by 2am, tips from top tipsters, Win Big Golf selections, and access to 11 years of magazine archives. |
