Trainers and Apprentice Jockeys - July On Course Profits

Well I’m writing this article on the eve of Royal Ascot. By the time you read this not only will the big Royal Meeting be over for another 12 months, but we will also have seen the back of four of the five English Classics. July should be the height of the flat season and it can be a time when Trainers and Apprentice Jockeys can offer up a profit.

If the weather is anything like last year we should be enjoying long hot sunny days and quick going across all racecourses. However, this is British Isles so it could easily be cool, rainy and soft ground.

There’s plenty of high-class horse racing for us to enjoy.

We begin the month with the Coral Eclipse at Sandown, which is the first opportunity for the classic generation to meet the older horses over middle distances.

During the middle of the month it’s the July Festival at Newmarket and at the end of the month it’s one of the great races of the flat racing calendar the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

If the big race action couldn’t get any better the last few days of July also sees the start of the ‘Glorious Goodwood’ and the Galway Festival.

In last months ‘Acorns’ article I looked at profitable racecourses for favourites.

This month I’m back over more familiar territory looking at trainers. In this case trainers who are adept at using apprentice jockey’s in handicap races.

Apprentice Jockeys

Let’s begin by looking at why a trainer would utilise an Apprentice jockey in an open race.

Go to the British Horseracing Authority (BHA) website and you will see the following:

“To compensate for an initial lack of experience at the beginning of their careers, Apprentices are entitled to a weight allowance when riding against full professional Jockeys. The ‘claim’ will depend on how many winners the Apprentice has ridden (Rule (F)140):

7lb until they have won 20 races
5lb until they have won 50 races
3lb until they have won 95 races”

https://www.britishhorseracing.com/faqs/what-are-the-claim-allowances-for-apprentice-jockeys

There are several reasons why a trainer would want to book an Apprentice. The most common is that that the trainer needs the jockey’s allowance.

For example; if a horse is raised 4lb from its last race it makes sense to get another win from the horse using a jockey who can claim 3lb, 5lb or 7lb off the horses back.

Now apprentice jockey’s lack the race experience of their more established colleagues in the weighing room but at the same time a good 5lb or 3lb claiming jockey can be worth their weight in gold in a tight handicap.

As ever the excellent www.horseracebase.com with its mine of detailed information and stats is the starting point for this month’s investigation.

Apprentice jockeys have won just under 9% of all handicaps in the period from the start of 2015. They have a poor win strike rate and you would be losing a lot of money if you had backed them all.

As ever there’s angle in and it’s looking at trainers who utilise a jockey’s claim successfully.

Trainers and Apprentice Jockey’s

So, who are the trainers you should be concentrating on for profit?

Here are the top performing trainers using apprentice riders in terms of win strike rates. To obtain a decent sample size I have concentrated on those trainers who had a minimum of 25 qualifiers since the start of 2015.

The best stat that you can use is the Actual versus Expected (A/E) stat.

Top of the table is Dennis Coakley.

Not many bets but you could have backed apprentice ridden runners in handicaps blind and made a nice profit.

System 56: Back Denis Coakley apprentice ridden horses in non-apprentice handicaps.

Likewise, Karen McLintock, John Berry Mike Murphy and Ismail Mohammed have done well utilising apprentice jockeys. More on those four trainers later. Firstly, let’s look at two trainers who have used apprentices the most: Saeed Bin Suroor & Ralph Beckett.

Saeed bin Suroor

Has used apprentice jockeys and their claims more than any other trainer. Despite his good win strike rate at almost 23%. If you had backed all such runners, you would have lost £15.95 to a £1 level stake. However, there is a potential profitable micro angle to be exploited by adding just two simple factors.

It’s clear then that that the trainer’s qualifiers are normally well fancied in the betting and are either on the same mark or racing off a lower mark than their last race. It looks like the trainer is giving his runners dropping down the handicap an extra chance by booking a claimer to take off a few more lbs.

System 2: Back Saeed Bin Suroor handicap runners ridden by a 3lb, 5lb or 7lb apprentice that are in the first three in the betting and either lower or off the same mark as their last race.

Ralph Beckett

The trainer has an 18%-win strike rate when booking an apprentice jockey and they are performing 25% better than market expectations.

I wouldn’t suggest you back all his apprentice ridden runners. However, like the previous trainer is there an angle in?

One way in could be look at the class of the race.

Looking at those stats it seems that the trainer utilises apprentice jockeys in Class 5 handicaps with most success. The only problem is the lack of bets.

Adding two simple filters:

Odds SP: 12/1 & under.
Class Move: Dropping or Same.

System 3: Back Ralph Beckett handicap runners ridden by a 3lb, 5lb or 7lb apprentice, that are 12/1 & under and either dropping down in class or racing in the same class as their last race.

Other Trainers:

Here are the four trainers I mentioned earlier with their most profitable angles when using apprentice jockeys.

Karen McLintock

System 4: Back Karen McLintock handicap runners ridden by 3lb or 5lb apprentice, that are between 2lb lower & 5lb higher than their last race and are 10/1 & under in the betting.

Ismail Mohammed

System 51: Back Ismail Mohammed handicap runners ridden by 3lb, 5lb or 7lb apprentice in Class 3 or 4 races only.

John Berry

System 54: Back John Berry handicap runners ridden by 5lb or 7lb apprentice.

Mike Murphy

System 5: Back Mike Murphy handicap runners ridden by 3lb, 5lb or 7lb apprentice, that are 16/1 & under in the betting.

It is important to remember that there won’t be many qualifiers during the season so there may well be too few bets for you, depending on your betting strategy.

Like many such methods, the above figures are based on historic data and whilst history has a good habit of repeating itself, it often doesn’t.

Next month I will be looking at profitable trainers in the month of August.

Until next time.

John