Wolverhampton and a lesson in looking at past profit figures

Trying to find systems which work for us year in year out is something which we probably all strive for, but it is much harder than it appears. In truth possibly the only true way of getting ahead in this racing game is to have a nod and wink from the inside.

There are so many variables for us to work with in any one race that there are times when we think we’d be better placed throwing a dart at the race card (though that may damage our screens – does anyone use paper anymore?)

All these variables never stop us striving for that winning position though and so we continue to interrogate the rafts of historical data on offer in the hope that we may find something which works and can offer a modest return for our hard earned efforts.

We all love those big meetings with 30 runner handicaps which we have just witnessed at Royal Ascot, but the bread and butter racing is where our heart lies.

The Wolverhampton All Weather course also known as Dunstall Park is located on Gorsebrook Road, WV6 and currently offers 80 racing fixtures throughout the year along with the customary “music” events and entertainment. Racing has taken place on the site since the late 19^th century.

The course is a flat Tapeta course (Tapeta installed in 2014 – The first British course to change to the Tapeta surface. Also, Wolverhampton was the first British course to install floodlighting in 1994) and is a left handed, oval track which is just under 1mile in length and is consequently a tight track with sharp bends.

In addition, the final run to the winning post is short, just two furlongs, hence horses that can gain and hold an early good position are better placed here than those who need to find their stride on the run in.

The Trainers to Follow

* Period for review 2017-to date

Currently we have identified six trainers which we feel may be worthy of a more detailed investigation for success at Wolverhampton.

Andi (Andrew) Brown’s results show up as with just a handful of runners in his stable at Newmarket, having in the past worked for the likes of John Gosden and Jeremy Noseda.

Given the small number of runners (just 18 in 5 ½ years) at Wolverhampton, there is probably little merit in looking into his runners any further. That said all 7 of his placed runners from the 18 in total have been placed in Handicap races with 6 of those coming over a mile. So, we may pencil in a note to keep an eye on any future handicap runners entered at Wolverhampton over more than a mile.

JMP Eustace (James Eustace) has now retired and in 2021 handed the reins to his son Harry. And when we add in Harry to the mix well, he hasn’t performed as well at Wolverhampton sadly.

19 horses have run under the Harry Eustace banner and none of them have made it to the winners post first, though in fairness 7 have placed in their races but not at prices to generate a profit backing Each Way.

JR Gask (Jeremy Gask) – All profits from this trainer occurred in 2017. The trainer returned to his homeland of Australia at the end of that season. (If he sends one over to sunny Wolverhampton we’ll be backing it! That’s one hell of a distance travelled …joke).

Now we can see a name we possibly all know Donald McCain.

Donald McCain (D McCain Jnr) – Surely Mr McCain can give us something to work with!

Based in Cheshire it’s a little less than one and a half hours drive down to Wolverhampton, for the trainer who is possibly better known for his National Hunt runners rather than his All Weather runners.

Interestingly backing his runners blindly on the All Weather over the period concerned would have seen you make a small profit so we may have something to work with here…finally!

The strike rates aren’t overly encouraging but we’ll delve in a little deeper anyway in hope…

First, we can see that he never really travels too far from home when sending out a runner on the All Weather.

And of those we can also see that Newcastle is possibly one to avoid (or maybe we should look at laying his runners at this track, we don’t seem to be finding profits elsewhere currently).

Of the remaining runners at Southwell and Wolverhampton it pays to look at the handicap runners. Probably no surprise there.

But look for those runners in 3yo+ Handicaps. Positive profits from these runners have been forthcoming in all but 1 of the years (2019 -1.00pt).

System 7: Back Donald McCains runners at Southwell (AW) and Wolverhampton when running in 3yo+ Handicaps at BFSP.

The runners of Jose Santos are up next. Who? Well don’t get too excited. The strike rates and profit figures look tidy don’t they?

And then…yep, he’s no longer training.

Okay, so everything now lies on the shoulders of Bill Turner (WGM Turner)

Bill Turner – Well he’s still training so that’s helpful! And an initial look at the results for Wolverhampton look promising (Tries not to get too excited).

And there we have it!

2019 throws us in to the wonderful world of anomalies!

Remove 2019’s profits and the picture is totally different. Our healthy profits have disappeared!

If you think you have a winning formula you’d like us to research for you then please let us know, we’d love to hear from you. You can make a suggestion here https://www.oncourseprofits.com/suggestion-box/