Wolverhampton Horse Racing Tips for Today
The Racing Horse offers their Wolverhampton Racecourse Template for Friday 19 January 2024.
There is a 7-race card containing 5 Handicaps, a Classified Stakes Race and a Novice Stakes Race.
The Tapeta going is expected to be standard.
Wolverhampton FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicaps Handicaps
2yo 100-236 42% -35.78 38-111 34% +15.80
3yo 139-288 48% -14.41 223-651 34% -38.09
4yo+ 67-149 45% +6.05 343-1121 31% -121.05
TOTAL 306-673 45% -44.14 604-1883 32% -143.34
TOP 5 TRAINERS past 5 years +/- E
Tony Carroll (9%) 73-809 9% -128.80 +0% 2
Michael Appleby (11%) 61-514 12% -7.54 +1% 3
Mark Loughnane (9%) 57-562 10% -109.17 +1% 5
David Evans (11%) 55-483 11% -94.04 +0% 0
George Boughey (17%) 47-306 15% -65.30 -2% 1
TOP 5 TRAINERS for 2023 +/- E
Mark Loughnane (9%) 23-170 14% -34.20 +5% 5
Tony Carroll (10%) 22-248 9% -73.30 -1% 2
Michael Appleby (11%) 19-119 16% +52.72 +5% 3
David Evans (11%) 15-98 15% -12.91 +4% 0
George Boughey (17%) 13-95 14% -40.28 -3% 1
HOT TRAINERS 20/12/23 to 18/01/24 +/- E
R Carr (8%) 6-19 32% +31.50 +24% 1
R Varian (20%) 8-29 28% +6.87 +8% 1
H Palmer (14%) 6-24 25% -1.00 +11% 1
S & E Crisford (20%) 5-23 22% +9.25 +2% 1
COLD TRAINERS SAW E
M Wigham (10%) 32 117 days 1
R Fahey (11%) 24 19 days 1
G Harris (6%) 21 71 days 2
TOP 5 JOCKEYS past 5 years +/- R
Luke Morris (9%) 97-866 11% -234.87 +2% 0
Rossa Ryan (16%) 88-457 19% +34.82 +3% 0
Hollie Doyle (15%) 80-518 15% -131.52 +0% 7
Jack Mitchell (17%) 70-383 18% -104.99 +1% 4
Daniel Muscutt (13%) 66-412 16% -61.24 +3% 4
TOP 5 JOCKEYS for 2023 +/- R
Rossa Ryan (15%) 37-176 21% -3.64 +6% 0
Billy Loughnane (14%) 35-184 19% -4.31 +5% 0
Luke Morris (9%) 26-209 12% -39.48 +3% 0
Oisin Murphy (19%) 24-87 28% +23.38 +9% 0
Daniel Muscutt (13%) 24-112 21% +36.93 +8% 4
HOT JOCKEYS 20/12/23 to 18/01/24 +/- R
Billy Garritty (11%) 7-24 29% -1.00 +18% 1
Joanna Mason (10%) 9-35 26% 28.12 +16% 3
Jack Mitchell (17%) 12-60 20% -4.38 +3% 4
David Probert (12%) 12-61 20% -4.43 +8% 6
Gina Mangan (10%) 6-32 19% +6.26 +9% 2
COLD JOCKEYS SAW R
Oisin Orr (13%) 22 56 days 3
Morgan Cole (9%) 22 45 days 1
TOP 5 OWNERS past 5 years +/- E
Godolphin (25%) 51-171 30% -19.05 +5% 0
Saeed Manana (15%) 23-103 22% +12.43 +7% 0
Ahmed A Maktoum (23%) 20-51 39% +4.48 +16% 0
Power Geneva (16%) 19-106 18% +1.77 +2% 0
Antony Brittain (8%) 14-187 7% -75.33 -1% 0
FIXTURES:
Friday 12 January 2024
Saturday 13 January 2024
CONFIGURATION: The all-weather course at Wolverhampton forms a flat, left-handed oval circuit of just under a mile in length. It was relaid in summer 2014 and the surface was changed to Tapeta. The bends are fairly sharp and with a straight of under two furlongs in length it favours horses with the ability to hold a good position as opposed to those who need time to find full stride.
WINNING FAVOURITES: Given the amount of the poor quality of racing at Wolverhampton, we are continually surprised as to the high strike rates of winning favourites generally – but especially in non-handicap bargain-basement type races! So why is that?
Our only conclusion is the wisdom of the crowd is in regular play with horses they know! Worth pointing out the 5f, 7f and extended 1m starts can be tricky for the jockeys, and even the 1m4f start can cause a problem – the high strike rate is continually produced despite those negative draw concerns.
The big sample size at this course means the figures are real and unlikely to suffer fatigue in the future, so trusted, at least to a relative extent.
Over the past 5-years, winning favourites at the course show 910-2556 for 35.60% so 3% above the national average, though a level stake loss to SP of -£187.48 to a £1 win stake. Winning favourites in non-handicaps score at 45% whilst those in handicaps score 32% for a significant 13% differential.
TRAINERS: We note the top 4 trainers at the course have national averages of between 9% and 11% reflecting in the quality of racing at the course.
Mark Loughnane (9%) was top trainer at the track in 2023 and he has 5 runners tomorrow. Top trainer at the track over the past 5 years is Tony Carroll (9%) and he has 2 runners.
JOCKEYS: From our leader boards both Jack Mitchell (17%) and Danny Muscutt (13%) have 4 rides, whilst hot jockey David Probert (12%) has 6 rides. Along with Hollie Doyle (15%) this trio should be amongst the winners!
OWNERS: None of the top owners have a runner at the course tomorrow.
RED FLAG: Let's face it, Hollie Doyle (15%) has not got going since her return from Japan! Since her UK resumption she shows 4-54 for 7% (-41.88) and included in those figures are just 4 second places.
We are reminded of her moderate October figures (before she went away) of 12-122 for 9.8% (-56.63) meaning her last quarter or so scores 16-176 for 9.09%. Make no mistake, she will be aware of figures not commensurate of ability or effort.
TRH does not use the words due or luck in betting, but we can prepare and expect an upturn in the figures of Hollie Doyle anytime soon!
It could start tomorrow where she has 7 rides including CAREY STREET 1.05, HAALAND 1.40, WISEACRE 2.15, OK PAL 2.50, NOBLE SOVEREIGN 3.25, TATATEO 3.55 & ELUSIVE TIGER 4.25.
Pertinence
1.05
BLETCHLEY STORM (M Wigham) formerly with M Bell, betting watch, Paddy Bradley (3) rides
CAREY STREET (Mrs L Stubbs) C&D winner, weighted to win 70 > 55 though 0-18, good 3rd doing too much too soon last time out, Hollie Doyle rides
1.40
AQWAAM (I Williams) beaten favourite last time out, Alistair Rawlinson rides
EDUCATOR (M Appleby) beaten favourite last time out, drops from Class 2 to Class 4, Jason Hart rides
PALACE BOY (R J Smith) landed gamble over C&D last time, George Rooke ride
2.15
AL FARABI (R Varian) beaten favourite last time out, lightly raced, Jack Mitchell rides and 36% on favourites
EDEN STORM (M Botti) C&D winner, trainer +£39.67 when one runner at a meeting, Benoit Sayette rides
FOLLOW YOUR HEART (M Loughnane) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, David Probert rides
2.50
KRAKEN DIAMOND (B Toomey) formerly with J McConnell, David Probert rides
FIELDSMAN (A Carroll) C&D winner, scored at Southwell in December, found one too good there last time out, in form, Jack Doughty (7) rides
OUTREACH (M Usher) winner last time out, George Bass (3) rides
3.25
FAST AFFAIR (J Fanshawe) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out, Danny Muscutt rides and 36% on favourites ELLEXIS (R Teal) trainer +£102.54 when one runner at a meeting, Lewis Edmunds rides
DARING GREATLY (Mrs Ilka Gansera-Leveque) trainer +£26.87 when one runner at a meeting, Benoit Sayette rides
3.55
HISSYAAN (S & E Crisford) Street Sense colt. Dam once-raced half-sister to US Grade 1 1¼m (Arlington Million) winner Hardest Core out of US winner up to 8.5f (2-y-o 5.5f winner) Lillybuster. Trainer 22% at the course, Harry Davies rides. KALPANA (A Balding) Study of Man filly. Half-sister to 3 winners, including winner up to 9f Vividly and 7f/1m winner Floating Spirit. Yard have had a number of successful newcomers this winter and this isn't a deep race. Hayley Turner rides and 36% on favourites
4.25
PYRRHIC DANCER (G Brown) seeking C&D hat-trick, Taylor Fisher rides and 37% on favourites
TWISTALINE (M Appleby) beaten favourite last time out, Alistair Rawlinson rides
ELUSIVE TIGER (A Watson) course winner, last time out winner, Hollie Doyle rides
Wolverhampton’s 5f, 7f and extended 1m starts can be tricky from a jockey’s point of view, because they’re very much draw-dependent. It’s a big advantage being among the low, left-hand numbers. The 1m4f start can also be a slight problem, but at least from there you’ve got a longer trip to get sorted out. Nobody went round the inside in the early days and, while I’m not sure it’s a disadvantage to be there now, most jocks still shy away from that rail. It’s a tight course, but well laid-out and very fair
– Jason Weaver
Paul Moon – The Racing Horse