Bless you 🤧

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No joy with Bronte Beach yesterday but the 66/1 chance that Martin mentioned as an extra paid off, I got 10.0 in the 4 places market and it finished 4th 🙂

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It's another no bet day for our sponsor Travelling Profits so I'll keep talking about Smart Value Tips who continue to impress.

I've got a strong dose of the man flu so I'm going to take the easy option and just give you one of the four Smart Value Tips bets for today.

This is the last of the four to run, normally I would share the first to run but for various reasons I couldn't share the earlier selections. 

Thursday Feb 26  16:10  Wetherby  Arcadian Star  1.00  Point  Win & Place (Betfair)

16.10 Wetherby – Class 3 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle

My sole UK bet comes in what looks a competitive contest on paper, but the standout statistical profile belongs to Stuart Edmunds. He saddles handicap debutant ARCADIAN STAR, ridden by Charlie Hammond. Wetherby has been a profitable track for Edmunds over the past five years despite relatively few runners: 14 runners, 4 winners, 9 placed. Of those, Hammond has partnered 5 runners, producing 3 winners and 1 placed effort, notably with four different horses. Edmunds’ record at the course in Handicap Hurdles is also strong. He won this very race last year with Outer Banks — who was also making a handicap debut — and has had 3 further placed from 4 runners in this discipline at the track.

The profile strengthens further when focusing on handicap debutants with prior seasonal experience (5-year record): 8 runners, 3 winners, 4 placed, and in February specifically: 3 runners, 2 winners, 3 placed.

Interestingly, he has had 3 winners from 4 runners who, like Arcadian Star, had three prior runs during the season before their handicap debut.

Those are figures that would stand up strongly in most races. However, this is a competitive field with several credible rivals, so I’d suggest keeping stakes small. At around 7-1, Arcadian Star looks an excellent each-way play based on the strength of the data.

If you'd like all of today's bets from Smart Value Tips you can sign up here – https://memberarea.co.uk/join?id=860

All the best

Darren Power

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