Simple Saturday system
Harris English tied for 2nd place last week at Quail Hollow, we had him at 100/1 1/5 odds, so that added a little excitement to our weekend.
If you want to get involved with Win Big Golf you can join here - https://www.oncourseprofits.com/sales-page/win-big-golf/
Note: If you would like to be added to our mailing list to receive these messages – Please Click Here
My mention of horses not knowing the day earned me some feedback.
The main one being that trainers do know and because handicap marks are only adjusted once a week on a Monday, trainers can take advantage of that and hence the day of the week might be relevant.
More relevant to my mind is when the horse last raced in relation to today's race.
A winner of a handicap will have to carry a penalty if it runs again before it's handicap mark has been adjusted, but a horse could improve more than the penalty it carries, or a claimer could be jocked up with an allowance that negates the penalty.
So I thought I'd have a quick look in HorseRaceBase and see what I could find. Looking at penalties carried there looks to be some profit on the National Hunt but a big loss on the flat.
Next I ran the numbers in the simplest way I could think of without just looking at penalties carried, which was only looking at Handicaps run on Saturdays and backing any horse that last ran and won within 5 days, so who's handicap mark has not yet been amended.
That got me a loss of 19% ROI on the Flat and small profits on the All Weather and National Hunt.
But when I removed the criteria that the horse had to have won last time out I got a + 49% ROI over the last three years on the flat, big losses on the AW and NH.
The strike rate is very low at around 14% but the average odds are pretty high at 13.09.
Something worth investigating further!
Good luck with all your bets today.
All the best
Darren Power
PS This month's sponsor is The Postman, he delivers early, Click Here to take a trial just £4.99
PPS If you have questions (non urgent) hit reply and I'll do my best to answer them, if you have questions about subscriptions payments etc that need a prompt reply please use the helpdesk link - https://customerserviceserver.com/help/
PPPS You can cancel any paid for service at anytime by following the link in the footer of this mail
