My place or yours

I mentioned last week that for On Course Profits Platinum members that Sean Trivass shared a list of trainers that are profitable with their first time chasers.

I'm going to start betting the selections and I'm going to bet them to place only.

Note: If you would like to be added to our mailing list to receive these messages – Please Click Here

This idea was triggered by something that Paul Slattery told FormHorse Select members and a couple of members of the service emailed in to say they were betting the selections place only, which boosted the strike rate to 80% which in turn allows them to run with a smaller bank or up their stakes.

So looking at the list of first time chasers for the named trainers running since we published the list, the win profit is + 7 points with a 21% strike rate from 14 bets.

Betting them all to place only would have produced + 6 points profit with a 50% strike rate.

They weren't all tiny prices either with a couple at 6.0 and bigger to place.

Now you might think well the profit was smaller so what's the point!

But the point is that at a 50% strike rate the longest losing run calculator estimates a longest losing run of 9.

At 21% strike that longest likely losing run is 29.

That means I can set aside a 30 point bank for these bets instead of a 90 points bank. (I like to go 3 times the longest expected losing run)

Which means if I set aside say £500 I can bet £16 on each bet as opposed to £5, which means if I'd started on the 23rd when we published I would be + £96 so far instead of + £35.

As far as FormHorse Select goes I'll bet whatever Paul advises, but for my own bets I'm going to re assess and see if a Place only strategy might be better. 

What do you think about betting place only?

If you want to upgrade to Platinum and get the list of profitable trainers go to https://www.oncourseprofits.com/upgrade

If you want a proven tipster to tell you what to bet and how you can join FormHorse Select here - https://bluedelta.thrivecart.com/formhorse-select-monthly

All the best

Darren Power

PS This month's sponsor is BetBold – The Secret To Winning A Massive, Life Changing Payday! – Click Here to Start Today

PPS If you have questions hit reply and myself or one of the team will get back to you

PPPS You can cancel any paid for service at anytime by following the link in the footer of this mail

Betting all my adult life, firstly at the greyhound track where my dad was a trainer more recently horses.
A fan of systems based betting which I've been practicing and writing about since 2004 which was the last time I had a real job.

Related posts

  • Specialisation is the way

    ByDarren Power

    Specialise, that's Dave Renham's advice and that's how he achieved success when he operated a tipping service. In this month's mag Dave applied that approach to 6 furlong handicaps at Kempton. Today we have two 6 furlong handicaps at Kempton. You can read Dave's research here  https://www.oncourseprofits.com/specialising-over-a-specific-course-and-distance/ Here's a quick summary as it applies to…

  • Incy wincy profit

    ByDarren Power

    It was a teeny weeny profit for me yesterday on the two selections shared. If you're a Platinum member Sean has more profiles for today's races here. https://www.oncourseprofits.com/the-statman-the-grand-national-meeting/ The big success of the day was Alex Peperell who had three from three yesterday including a 14/1 winner, 17.85 on Betfair. He's got three again today…

  • Dublin down

    ByDarren Power

    First up today a quick note about our tipping competition. If you want to enter for February you can do that here - https://memberarea.co.uk/tipster_comp_entry_form/?id=856   If you are already in the January contest you don't need to re-enter, just keep posting selections. The prize for the monthly winner is a 3 month membership of one of…