HH shortlist notes
No winners on the Handicap Hurdle shortlist yesterday!
Today I'll answer a few queries and questions.
Note: If you would like to be added to our mailing list to receive these messages – Please Click Here
What about Course and Distance winners, we've had a few people ask about this as John's original outline included C&D's.
Looking at the data back to 2014 if I add a filter to only include horses with a course win the ROI drops from 0.5% to -1.58%.
Adding a win at the distance does bring it up, but including it makes this year to date a losing year and the overall profile is less consistent.
To my mind we are creating a shortlist and course and distance suitability are factors for us to consider when finalising which ones we want to bet and which to skip.
As one reader commented, you want to know that the horse can perform over the distance, but having a strict rule that it has to have run the exact same distance is not helpful.
The other question that popped up a few times is around days since last run and specifically should there be a lower boundary EG if a horse raced just 2 days ago can it really be expected to run well today. Especially as the season gets busier.
Looking back over the last 10 years horses that last ran 1 day ago is a big negative, profit wise, but the strike rate os a decent 22% so they do win.
Two days is a big positive with a 40% strike rate and a 27% ROI.
In the end I stuck with 1 as the lower limit and went with a reader suggestion of 35 days for the upper limit, which looks to be optimum. Again factor this into your study when you finalise your bets.
So to confirm, what I'm sending out are horses running in Handicap Hurdles that last ran between 1 and 35 days ago and in their last race placed in the first four.
I expanded it to the first four because horses that finished fourth are more profitable than those that finished in the first three, probably because a first three finish is seen as a positive and they are overbet.
This profile will find the winner of Handicap Hurdles 46% of the time.
I suggest to finalise your selections you check suitability to the going and distance and if you have access to the Geegeez pace maps factor that in also.
If you're not yet on the list to receive this shortlist each day you can get on that here…
If you missed the previous mails on this subject you can read those here https://www.oncourseprofits.com/category/todays-message/
All the best
Darren Power
PS This month's sponsor is FormHorse Select, Paul Slattery won our tipping competition with a strong profit and a huge strike rate – Click Here to lock in the introductory price
PPS If you have questions hit reply and myself or one of the team will get back to you
PPPS You can cancel any paid for service at anytime by following the link in the footer of this mail
