Horseracebase – How to Find Winners – Part 2

Part two of my review of the horseracebase site. 

In Part One I gave you a flavour of some of the basics of the site that I use in a daily basis such as the race cards and excellent stat attack feature.

In this part I will highlight tools like Hot & Cold Races.

How you can profile a horse through the site and following the form of big races.

As with last month’s piece I will do it through a tutorial format giving examples from the site on the way.

On Course Profits free Horse Racing magazine

Bear in mind, it’s been written with the ‘newbie’ in mind but even more experienced users will hopefully find it helpful.

Hot and Cold Races, Horse Profiles & Big Race Trends

Hot and Cold Races

Hot and Cold Races is an excellent tool for the serious punter.

When you come onto the site you will see the research tab on the top. When you click on the tab you will come to this page.

Click on Hot/Cold Races and you get the following menu:

You have plenty of ways to dig into the hot/cold races function. For the purpose of this exercise I have set the filters to hot races, UK not Ireland and horses that are racing today.

When you click on Go you will normally be faced with a long list of hot races, of course you can use more filters, such as handicap races only, which will cut down the number of races looked at.  Below is just a snap shot of some hot races within the last 30-days.

At the top you can see a Thirsk handicap for which four horses have subsequently won.

That’s a race worthy of further inspection.

When you click on the race you get this page.

Ten runners have come out of this Class 6 handicap with four of them winning another two having placed.

Neat thing is you can be notified when any horses from this race run again.

You can follow the horses on just their next run, second run or third. 

When you click continue you will see this page.

Here’s another example of the tool at work:

The Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot has at the time of writing now produced four winners after Motakhayyel went on to Bunbury Cup at Newmarket’s July Festival.

You can also find Cold Races in the same way as you do hot ones.

Looking at the Class 3 Betway Handicap run at Doncaster on June 13th.

As you can see there have been 12 subsequent runs from horses from the race with not one placing.

Likewise, this year’s G2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot isn’t working out too well so far.

Five horses have come out of the race and none of them have placed on their next run.

Now three of them finished unplaced in the Epsom Derby but still it’s form to be cautious of.

As with Hot Races you can get the site to notify you when horses from races are running.

In summary: The Hot/Cold Race feature is an excellent tool to identify those races where the form looks worthy of a second look or those where the form could be worth opposing. 

I probably don’t use the feature enough but others I’m sure do use it with great success.

Horse Profiling

I don’t use the previous feature enough but I do use the database to profile a horse. Most of you will probably understand the concept of horse profiles. For those of you unsure by the term. It’s basically finding a horse’s favourite and not so favourite conditions.

As ever the best way to show you how I profile a horse in horserace base is to show a couple of practical examples. Let’s have a look at Dakota Gold who was an improving sprinter in 2019. You can go into the database and find his race record.

And there’s more.

There’s a wealth of information at your fingertips on a horse’s record on the going, race class, track. distance, days since last run, month, etc. You can even filter it to show placings which is a nifty feature as it gives you a nice at glance look at a horse’s form figures.

The stand out for me is his form at York over 5 ½ f & 6f.

He’s never been outside the first two at the track over those two distances. His one poor run at York came over 5f, on good ground in May 2018. As he showed last season, he can win over minimum 5f but needs a stiff track and likely plenty of juice in the ground.

His two runs so far this season have been disappointing but they have both been on good ground and both over 5f.  He’s one I will be noting when he returns to York over 5 ½ f/ 6f.

Look at the record of another handicap sprinter the Jedd O’Keeffe trained Air Raid. He has won on good ground but his record on soft ground is notable.

Looking at course & distance his record at Hamilton over 6f really catches the eye.

His form since his last win hasn’t been great as you can see here.

There are probably some excuses for those poor runs. His return to action was on good ground in the Wokingham Handicap and his poor run in last year’s Goodwood Stewards Cup came on good to firm. His run at York is less excusable on ground that should have suited but he did sweat up badly before the race which may explain that poor performance.

Air Raid is now just 2lb above his last winning mark and if he gets soft ground at say Hamilton must have a good chance of adding another win to his cv. I have just skimmed the surface in regard to horse profiling.

You just as easily identify horses that are at their optimum when racing within a certain number of days of their last start or maybe better going right-handed rather than left-handed. There certainly plenty for you to play about with this feature.

In summary: Another great feature that enables you to spot horses at a glance that could go off at a value price and will be missed by other punters.

Trend Races

When I say trend races here, I’m not going to trend a big race which I have done before in past articles, but look at a relatively new feature on horseracebase and its one I started to us more and more of late. Probably one of the most underused tools on the site is the follow trend form from big races.  When you go to the big race trends page you will see the follow tab.

Clicking on that brings up this page.

Testing just the winner of the 1000 Guineas on their next start.

As you can see you would have made a profit backing the 1000 Guineas winner on their next start and even bigger one if they are sent off favourite as this year’s winner Love was in the Oaks.

The Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot presents a slightly different picture.

Backing every Jersey Stakes winner on their next start would have seen a loss of £2.25 to a £1 level stake.  However, if you backed the winner only if they were favourite or second favourite on their next start you would have had 5 winners from 14 runners 8 placed and made a profit of £6.25 to a £1 level stake.

I would definitely be interested in this year’s winner Molatham if he was to be favourite or second favourite on his next start. Digging a bit further and looking at the first three home in the race.

Backing the first three home in the Jersey Stakes blindly on their next start isn’t profitable as you can see. However, if they go off favourite on their next run then you should take a note as they have produced 10 winners from 24 runners 19 placed with a £7.44 profit to a £1 level stake.

Looking at the July Cup.

It’s been profitable to follow the first three home in the July Cup on their next start if they start favourite.

The July Stakes at Newmarket also produces some interesting results.

This 2-year-old race was won by Tactical in 2020 and if we look at the race’s trends, we can see he would be interesting if running back in Group 2 company on his next start.

Compare their record when racing in Group 2 to racing in Group 1 races on their next start.

Onto the Epsom Derby.

If you had backed blindly all Epsom Derby runners on their next start you would have made a profit.

Backing only those running between 16 to 30 days of the race produces an even bigger profit of £65.42 to a £1 level stake.

In summary: Once again I have just skimmed through this very exciting tool and indeed, I could devote a whole article to looking at following big race form, which I may do at a future date. Trust me this tool is going to a big help in your punting going forward.

I hope I have given you more of a taste as to the awesome power of HRB that’s available at your fingertips.

Next month I will focus on the System Builder. Arguably this is the most powerful and versatile area of the site.  It’s here where you can build and store your own systems. I will also share with you a couple of systems.

If you wish to take advantage of 7-day free trial of the service you can do so here http://www.horseracebase.com/extended.php . During that time, you'll be free to use all of the functionality of the site without constraint.

If you’ve got a question about HorseRaceBase that you would like my help with, use the Suggestion Box link to send it in and I’ll get back to you – Suggestion Box

Until next time

John Burke

Horse Race Base Part I
Horse Race Base Part III

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