The Pep Talk – The Ayr Gold Cup
Unfortunately, there were a couple of non-runners last month with neither Amiloc nor Paborus taking their chances. I’m also very disappointed that Merchant was taken out of the St Leger. Considering the way he won at Glorious Goodwood, I don’t really understand the decision, but I’m not the trainer.
I was going to go in again in the St Leger, but Scandinavia is rightly the heavy favourite having won the Goodwood Cup. If he runs, he’ll take the world of beating and nothing appeals in the market now.
There aren’t many markets to go at and so I’m not going to force it in races where I have no real opinion yet. So, it’s just the one this month, but this could be massive value.
Ayr Gold Cup
There are times when ante post prices jump out as huge value, and to me, this is one of those times.
Almeraq has only run four times, but he’s won two of them and gone off favourite in the last three. I read that he was only just ready to run on his first start of the season at Yarmouth when he was beaten by Spy Chief. The form of which has been franked by the winner finishing runner up in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Next time, in the Ayr Gold Cup Trial over the same course and distance as this race, Almeraq was smashed in the betting, going as short as 6/4.
He absolutely hosed in by five lengths, demolishing his rivals with ease. It was a monster performance. It’s worth noting that he was, and still is at the time of writing, entered in the Sprint Cup at Haydock. That is a massive clue to the regard with which he is held in by his trainer. William Haggas doesn’t tilt at windmills and if he’s entering Almeraq in Group 1s, then take note.
There is no doubt in my mind that this is group horse, and so for him to be 10/1 for this seems massive. Especially considering the number of races they could have gone for; they decided to send him all the way up to Scotland for the trial for the Ayr Gold Cup. That can’t be a coincidence and there has to be a very realistic chance he runs here before going onto group races. I think the 10/1 is absolutely massive as if he were to run, he’s probably going to be 3/1, or possibly shorter. That being said, there is a genuine possibility he runs here, reading between the lines, and so it’s well worth a punt at 10/1.
Recommended Bet
Back Almeraq @ 10/1
Alex Peperell
