Twice as likely to win
On Saturday our free tips were both placed (6 places on the National) for 2.46 points profit on the day, but Aintree was 1.54 points lost for the free tips overall 🙁
Twice as likely to win, that's the message from Dave Renham about low draws at Redcar over 7 furlongs and a mile.
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Dave says that 46% of Handicaps with 8 runners or more over those distances are won by horses drawn in the lower third.
Today we have the 2:27, 2:57 and 3:27 over those distances.
The 2:27 has eleven running so we're looking at draws 1 to 4.
The favourite is drawn 5!
In the 2:57 there are 13 running so we are looking at draws 1 to 4 again.
This time the first and second favourite (Toralou and Havana Prince) are drawn 3 and 4.
In the 3:27 we have 12 runners and again we are looking at draws 1 to 4.
This time we have a short priced favourite (Barefoot Warrior) drawn in stall 1.
There is a big gap here between the favourite at 11/8 and the second favourite (Mr King) at 9/1 drawn in stall 3.
The third favourite (Classic Encounter) is drawn 2.
Currently you can get a bigger price on Mr King and Classic Encounter in the Place Only market than you can get on the favourite to win.
The place only market has a 25% overround currently so that price may improve, but regardless, so far I have had a small bet for Mr King to place at 3.2 and Classic Encounter to place at 3.3.
My likely plan for the day is mainly a watching brief, but with small stakes bets to keep me interested.
You can read Dave's full article here https://www.oncourseprofits.com/those-draw-biases-again/
Good luck with all your bets today.
All the best
Darren Power
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