6 hours in a box
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Travelling Profits, our sponsor this month have one selection today.
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It is now a joint favourite currently 3.35 on Betfair.
This service made big gains backing big priced selections that won, so a joint favourite isn't what I was hoping to see today, but we will look at the facts and see what we think of the selection which is Exmoor in the 5:12 Newcastle.
Exmoor is trained by Andrew Balding who is based in Hampshire which is about 300 miles from Newcastle which must take more than 6 hours by horse box.
Since 2018 Mr Balding has sent 242 horses on that long journey and 66 have won for a 27% strike rate and a Profit at BSP of 143.32 points. The A/E of these runners is 1.21.
Interesting!
When he only sends one, as he has today, the strike rate is the same but the ROI reduces which suggests that people see this as a signal and overbet, but they still have a 36% ROI (Solo Balding runners sent to Newcastle)
So the trend is on our side, but what do we think about Exmoor?
Well honestly, this isn't a race I would be betting in, it's a novice stakes with not a lot of form available.
Looking back at the Betfair price chart I can see that some lucky punters got matched at 8.0 last night and at that price I would day that Exmoor is a value bet just based on Andrew Balding record at the course.
It could well win but at the current price I feel the value has gone somewhat, I will have a small bet based on the Balding/Newcastle record.
If you want selections with these sorts of stats everyday you can join Travelling Profits here – https://oncourseprofits.com/sponsor136
All the best
Darren Power
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