February 26, 2021

Cheltenham Festival 2021

In this month’s article I have looked at The Cheltenham Festival. Below you can find a few micro angles and pointers, firstly for ‘the big beasts’ in the training ranks, and two high profile owners. My 2020 Festival Trainer Micros pulled in around +27 points BFSP and with any luck the three below will add to those profits.

As always, if you would like to be sent more free reports & stats, including for The Festival, sign up to my free email list HERE>>>

For now, let’s crack on…

The Cheltenham Festival 2021

(stats look at the previous 12 Festivals unless stated)

Trainer Profiles/Pointers

Those trainers with 20 or more winners >>>

The four ‘big beasts’ have won 155 of the 327 races in the period, 47% or so, from 26% of runners.

Just looking at the last three Festivals, just three trainers are responsible for 46 of the 84 winners, 55% of race winners, from 28% of runners…

  • Gordon Elliot: 18/118, 47p, +65 BFSP
  • Willie Mullins: 18/117, 51p, +100 BFSP
  • Nicky Henderson: 10/101, 27p, +28 BFSP

For now I will just focus on those three above, for the previous 3 Festivals and highlight a micro angle or two…

Trainers

Gordon Elliot

Micro 1

  • Race Type: Novice Chase, Handicap Chase, Handicap Hurdle
  • Elliot had 1 or 2 runners in the race only

33 bets (23 races) / 10 wins / 17 places (inc wins) / +68 SP / +95 BFSP / AE 2.44

Willie Mullins

Micro 2

  • Non-handicaps
  • Horse age 4 or 5
  • Horse career wins: 1 or 2

21 bets (13 races) / 6 wins / 11 places (inc wins) / +90 SP / +141 BFSP / AE 2.82

Nicky Henderson

Micro 3

  • Race Type: NOT Novice Hurdles
  • Horse Runs Prev 90 Days: 1 only

26 bets (22 races) / 7 wins / 14 places (inc wins) / +51 SP / +90 BFSP / AE 2.42

Owners

JP McManus

The last couple of seasons could indicate a more concerted effort by JP McManus and his team to target and plunder Festival Handicaps.

In handicaps at the last two Festivals, he’s now 7/42, 10p, +19 BFSP (24% place SR)

In the six seasons before that in Festival handicaps JP was 3/129, 27p (21% place SR)

2019/2020…

Looking at the last two Festivals and some handicap pointers…

  • All handicaps / aged 8 or younger … 7/31, 10p +29
  • Handicap hurdles / aged 8 or younger… 6/20, 7p, +32 BFSP
  • All handicappers / 0-1 career win (in UK/Ire)… 4/8,4p, +29 BFSP (all in hcp hurdles).

Gigginstown

While JP has had a couple of good years with his handicappers, the same cannot be said for Gigginstown. Whether that’s a result of the operation slowly winding down, I’m not sure. Or again, just the cyclical nature of racing and the Festival.

Looking again at handicaps, at the last two Festivals they’re 1/30, 9p, -20

In the five seasons before that they were: 8/36, 11p, +104 BFSP

However, their placed stats have remained consistent so maybe they’ll have more luck this year.

Going back to the 2014 Festival, all handicap winners have been sent off at 16/1 or shorter SP: 9/46, 19p, +103 BFSP

In handicap chases: 5/14, 7p, +81 BFSP  (inc 1/4,2p +7 last year)

Hopefully there’s something above that helps you land on a winner or two at Cheltenham this year. Elliot, Mullins and Henderson won’t always dominate, but I can’t think of a logical reason for why they won’t in the next few seasons.

Arguably you could just focus on their runners as a ‘way in’ and if you can’t make a case for a horse, move on to the next race. For all that Nicholls, Henry De Bromhead, Joseph O’Brien and a few others are always worth attention also.

Happy Punting, Josh

www.racingtoprofit.co.uk

PS: Join my free email list HERE>>>

Featured Image: (CC BY 4.0)https://www.flickr.com/photos/vegaseddie

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Steve Carter

Steve Carter is the Associate Editor of On Course Profits magazine. He has relied on his betting skills and knowledge for his income for the past 15+ years. He specialises in horse racing and football betting & trading and knows what it takes to make a living from betting. He is always looking for new angles for himself and On Course Profits readers.

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