Qipco Guineas Festival Preview

John Burke gives us a Qipco Guineas Festival Preview this month with a few suggestions on how to find possible selections worthy of our hard earned cash.

I am writing this on the day of the Grand National and watching the chasers going around the Aintree fences on heavy winter jumping ground it’s hard to believe that the Qipco Guineas Festival is just three weeks away.

The highlight of Day 1 of the Festival is the first colts’ classic of the 2018 turf season the 2000 Guineas and the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes for the older middle distance horses. On the Sunday it’s the fillies who take centre stage with the Qipco 1000 Guineas and the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes for the older fillies & mares over 1m 1f.

This article takes a look at how you can make some profits, as simply as possible, from a meeting which if the past is any guide will provide us with some good races and even better performances. The first part highlights the most notable trainer stats at the meeting.

Trainer stats for four of the biggest races at the meeting and finally a handful of trainer micro angles.

Trainer Stats:

As some of you will be aware I am a big fan of trainers at those racing festivals being a great believer that trainers are “creatures of habit”, in that when they have success in the race, at a particular track or indeed a Festival they like to go back and repeat that success.

So, let’s begin by highlighting some of the meeting stats since 2013. The figures contained here are 70 winners from 747 runners 195 placed.

The top four trainers numerically are:

• Aiden O’Brien – 6 winners from 27 runners 22% -3.2 A/E 1.11 13 placed 48%

• Sir Michael Stoute – 5 winners from 23 runners +16 A/E 1.26 10 placed 45%

• John Gosden – 4 winners from 24 runners 17% -13.12 A/E 0.64 8 placed 33%

• Charlie Appleby – 4 winners from 22 runners 18% +5.25 A/E 1.16 10 placed 45%

Trainers Records In Group Races:

Breaking down those stats further, beginning with the Group races only:

25 winners from 281 runners 66 placed.

The top three trainers numerically are:

• Aiden O’Brien – 6 winners from 26 runners 23% -2.2 A/E 1.17 12 placed 46%

• Sir Michael Stoute – 4 winners from 7 runners 57% +20 A/E 2.23 5 placed 71%

• Andre Fabre – 3 winners from 6 runners 50% +11.25 A/E 2.29 5 placed 83%

Significantly the above three trainers have won 52% of the Group races from just 14% of the runners.

Trainer Records In Handicaps:

Now switching to the handicap results:

30 winners from 345 runners 90 placed

The top three trainers, that have had at least three runners are:
• Ralph Beckett – 2 winners from 4 runners 50% +18 2 placed 50%

• James Fanshawe – 2 winners from 5 runners 40% +24 2 placed 40%

• Charlie Appleby – 2 winners from 8 runners 25% -1.755 placed 63%

Individual Races:

Moving onto some of the individual races at the two-day meeting:

1. 2000 Guineas
The Irish have won six of the last ten renewals of the race with one trainer having a stand out record.

Aiden O’Brien – 4 winners from 22 runners 18% +0.38 5 placed 23%

2. 1000 Guineas
Seven of the last ten renewals have been won by Irish or French trained horses. Once again Aiden O’Brien has had the most winners.

Aiden O’Brien – 3 winners from 20 runners 15% +18.1 9 placed 45% (That profit is down to the 25/1 win by Homecoming Queen in 2012 race).

I would always keep a French trained horse in the race onside and it’s worth noting that Andre Fabre is 1 winner from 1 runner having taken the 2014 renewal with Miss France and he has a possible contender for this year’s race in Wind Chimes.

3. Dahlia Stakes
Three trainers have won seven of the last ten races with the record of
Newmarket trainer Sir Michael Stoute the stand out one.

Sir Michael Stoute – 5 winners from 8 runners 63% +8.74 6 placed 75%

Andre Fabre – 2 winners from 3 runners 67% +6.25 2 placed 67%

Aiden O’Brien – 1 winner from 1 runner 100% +1.63

4. Jockey Club Stakes

Sir Michael Stoute – 2 winners from 40% +11.5 3 placed 60%

Mark Johnston – 2 winners from 5 runners 40% +1.5 2 placed 40%

Roger Charlton – 1 winner from 1 runner 100% +7.5
Aiden O’Brien – 1 winner from 1 runners 100% +0.57

Luca Cumani – 1 winner from 2 runners 50% +6 2 placed 100%

Andre Fabre – 1 winner from 2 runners 50% +0.75 1 placed 50%

No stand out trainer here but you can see plenty of top trainers are among the recent winners of this 1m 4f Group 2 race.

Guineas Festival Trainer Micro Angles:

To give a larger sample size for the micro angles I have also looked at the results for the last 10-years.

Systems:-

1. Sir Michael Stoute

Race Distance: 1m 1f+

11 winners from 34 runners 32% +24.99 A/E 1.45 17 placed 50%

2. Henry Candy

Horses Age: 3-year-old only

4 winners from 4 runners 100% +26.6 6 placed 100%

Trainer hasn’t had a 3-year-old runner at the Guineas Festival since 2015 but take extra note if he has won this season, given the above stats.

3. John Gosden

Race Distance: 1m 1f+

Distance Move: Up 2f

7 winners from 14 runners 50% +19.38 A/E 1.88 8 placed 57%

John Gosden has had 8 winners from 51 runners at this meeting in the last 10 years but if you focus on his runners racing 1m 1f and further and moving up 2f in distance from their last run has been the way to go at this meeting.

Like many methods. The above figures are based on historical data and whilst history has a good habit of repeating itself, it often doesn’t.

Well, I hope you have found these trainer stats useful and they can enable you to pinpoint some winners at the upcoming Guineas Festival.

John