From the desk of Andrew David

If you’re really serious about making betting profits, then don’t overlook the obvious.

I recently had an email from a chap I will call ‘Peter’ who was having problems with continuing to bet when he encountered losing runs of 7 or 8 from the strategy he was following.

I then asked him what stakes he was using, and he told me they were flat £10 stakes. I advised him to simply lower his staking to £5 to which he replied, “I thought about that, but it will take a lot longer to achieve my targets”.

Well, I said to him that he will never reach his targets if he gives up after just 7 or 8 losers? I further went onto say “stake lower and you will get there quicker” and gave my reasoning. Seems like a paradox but let me explain…

There is a saying in India aimed at speedy car and moped drivers “go slower to get there quicker’. My interpretation of that saying is at least you will get there, however going hell for leather and you may never arrive if you my catch drift?

I told him to at least give it a try and report back in 3 months. He did just that and was delighted to tell me he was actually now staking £15 level stakes, some 50% more than he was originally uncomfortable with.

You see when hitting 7 or 8 losers on his reduced stake of £5 he ‘carried on betting’ and was glad he did as he told me after a recent run of 9 losers, he hit 2 x 7/1 winners on the 10^th & 11^th bet. Whereas previously he admitted he would have considered throwing in the towel at the 8^th or 9^th bet even though his past data collection showed losing runs of this length were in fact commonplace. Yet in ‘real time’ betting he still found it hard to carry on and lost confidence.

However, since he took my original advice he has since increased his unit stake by 50% more than when he first emailed me! A case of one step back and two steps forward.

Peter’s dilemma was a classic case of someone staking too high, and even though he knew his strategy was sound as evident by his own recorded data he still got the jitters too often to make any real money from it.

It’s vital that you measure how you feel about the monetary loss after lengthy losing runs or the ‘pinch point’ as I like to call it. If you are made uncomfortable by that figure, then you are doomed to fail from the start.

Remember you are more likely to carry on betting with money already won rather than money derived from your own pocket which naturally you have a greater emotional tie to. It’s just simple human emotion at work.

For example, let’s say you start betting with a £300 bank derived from your ‘own’ hard earned cash and then doubled it to say £600. You then decide to withdraw and bank your original £300 investment with your local high street bank.

You then begin betting again with the £300 won, I bet as sure as night follows day you would ‘take on’ more risk with the £300 won, simply because you will be comforted in the knowledge that whatever happens from thereon you can’t lose a dime of your own money – nice feeling.

So, the case is clear, ‘stake lower and get there quicker’.

Sometimes we have to take a step back staking wise to gather momentum and then climb the ladder. Peter now tells me he plans to go up to £20 very soon and all because he overcame one of the biggest hurdles all gamblers face, and that is how to handle and overcome losing runs in order that you ‘Carry On Betting’ through thick and thin.

All the best

Andrew David

Featured Image: Photo by engin akyurt on Unsplash