Draw Bias – Any Profitable Angles?

My favourite time of the year for horse racing research is primarily the winter as it is when I do all my number crunching for the next flat season. I have always preferred flat racing over jumps racing, and as I bet far less on the horses in the winter it gives me that extra time I require.

For this piece I am going back to my original stomping ground of the draw. In the 1990s before draw bias became well known to the masses, the opportunities to exploit it were huge. For me, that period coupled with first few years of the Noughties, provided me with numerous great opportunities and consistent profits. However, as with many things, when a value method becomes more widespread and better understood, the edge starts to gradually disappear.

This is very much an example of ‘shelf life’ – good ideas gain an edge because the majority of people do not use them.

As time passes however, the betting public and the more importantly bookmakers become aware and catch up. As a result, the prices start to contract, and the edge or value soon disappears.

In general, this is what has happened with draw bias over time. Also, such biases are less prevalent now than 25 years ago, due to far better watering systems and rail moving.

Back in the first lockdown I shared with readers two draw articles comparing the bottom half of the draw with the top half at all UK courses (5 furlongs to 1 mile 10+ runner handicaps). For this article I am solely trying to find ways to profit from the draw. Is it still possible? I am going to look at three options. So, let’s see ……

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David Renham