Sires and Courses
By the time many of you are reading this the 2018-2019 NH season will have come to an end. Mind you the 2019 -2020 NH season will have already begun.
The flat season is now well under way. The month of May begins with the first English Classics at Newmarket. Quickly followed by Chester’s May Festival and York’s Dante Meeting. So, there is plenty of good flat racing to look forward too.
Normally, in these monthly articles I tend to focus on trainers but occasionally I move away from the norm and this is one of those months. This month I am going to look at Sires and Courses and how you can build a profitable betting portfolio that you can use for the rest of the flat season.
There are some situations where sire stats really come into their own, as the total data from the siblings of a horse can indicate if that horse will be suited to certain conditions. These are not stats from the results of the sire itself, but stats from the results of the progeny of the sire.
The most useful sire stats I find are:
- Going
- First Time Out
- Runs After a Lay off.
- Age
- Course
Some sires have a strong bias to a certain type of going. Some sires are good at producing first time out juvenile winner’s other’s produce progeny who need a run or two before they are ready to win. Others produce horses who can win off a lay off.
In this article I am looking at the last on the list sires and courses. As we know UK & Irish racecourses have a rich variety of configurations. Some are flat, whilst others are undulating like Goodwood. Some have tight turns such as Chester or wide sweeping bends like York and of course some are left handed and others are right handed.
As ever the excellent www.horseracebase.com with its mine of detailed information and stats is the starting point for this month’s investigation. To have a decent sample size I have concentrated on those sires who have had at least 20 runners at a particular track.
Here is a list of the top sires by racecourse ranked by win percentage.
Let’s start at the top of the table:
Dubawi – Bath
Dubawi’s Progeny have
an exceptional strike rate at Bath, at near 48%-win strike rate, and are
performing 74% better than market expectations.
I suspect his progeny will continue to be profitable again this season at Bath.
You can back them blind.
System 39: Back Dubawi Progeny at Bath.
Smart Strike – Southwell
Smart Strike was a
Canadian bred horse who became a noted sire of dirt horses. Sadly he died in
2015 so there are no more of his progeny to come through the ranks but as the
figures show any of his runners on the Southwell’s fibresand will continue to
be worth noting for the time being.
System 41: Back Smart Strike’s progeny at Southwell.
Sea The Stars – Newcastle
Sea the Stars progeny have really taken to Newcastle and it’s tapeta surface. If you had backed all his progeny running at the course since the start of 2015. You would have made a £51.59 profit to a £1 stake.
As with Dubawi you can back his Newcastle qualifiers blind. However, if you want an even more niche angle. You could do worse than back his progeny that are either racing at the same distance as their last run or stepping up in trip.
This angle has been given plenty
of coverage in the media so whether it will continue to provide as much value
as it has in previous seasons remains to be seen but it should continue to
provide plenty of winners.
System 42: Back Sea The Stars Progeny at Newcastle.
Declaration Of War – Dundalk
The progeny of Declaration of War have really taken to Dundalk’s tapeta surface. Since 2017 they have produced the following set of results.
When trained by Aidan O’Brien Declaration Of War, a son of War Front, won his only start at Dundalk and his form figures on the all-weather were 1113 that final placing was achieved when beaten just ¼ length into 3rd in the 2013 Breeders Cup Classic at Santa Anita.
The sire’s record at Dundalk is a standout but it may also pay to note any of his progeny that runs at Southwell going forward.
System 44: Back Declaration Of War’s Progeny at Dundalk.
Other Sires Worth Noting
That’s the top four sires in
terms of racecourse.
Which are the others in the table that are worth looking at? For me there are
another four.
Shamardal – Chester
The progeny of Shamardal clearly
seem to enjoy the twists and turns of Chester.
System 45: Back Shamardal’s Progeny at Chester
War Front – Newmarket (July)
War Front’s progeny go well on
Newmarket’s July Course and I suspect they will continue to do. The going on
the July Course tends to be on the quick side of good and the sire’s progeny do
seem to be at their best on a sound surface.
System 48: Back War Front’s Progeny at Newmarket’s July
Course.
Dubawi – Epsom
The undulations of Epsom clearly
hold no terrors for the progeny of Dubawi.
System 46: Back Dubawi’s Progeny at Epsom
Piccolo – Ripon
Ripon is very much a ‘horse’s for
courses’ track. Some horses just don’t handle it. Clearly the progeny of
Piccolo handle it well enough.
System 47: Back Piccolo’s Progeny at Ripon
Negative Sires and Courses
Finally, on the flip side there are also sire’s whose progeny who don’t go well at certain racecourses.
Notes
I mentioned how well the progeny of Piccolo do at Ripon compare his record with that of Exceed and Excel. He’s had just one winner from 63 runners at the track since the start of 2015. But, his expected number of winners should be eight.
- Intense Focus has just had one winner at Lingfield and his expected wins should be ten.
- Oasis Dream ‘s progeny are struggling at both Redcar and Goodwood
- Captain Rio’s progeny are 2 winners from 119 runners at Lingfield & Dundalk.
- Excelebration progeny are 1 winner from 62 runners at Kempton
- Rock Of Gibraltar progeny are 2 winners from 90 runners at Newcastle.
It is important to remember that there won’t be many qualifiers during
the season so there may well be to few bets for you, depending on your betting
strategy.
Like many such methods, the above figures are based on historical data and
whilst history has a good habit of repeating itself, it often doesn’t.
Until next month.
