Cheltenham Festival Recap and The Grand National
Cheltenham Festival Recap
The 2025 Cheltenham Festival was a week full of drama and shocks. The Champion Hurdle chaos set the tone for the week and it never relented, making it one of the most dramatic in recent memory. There is a lot to digest and while the stories to come out of it will continue to evolve, there is already plenty to divulge. Hopefully, there is some useful analysis in here with some pointers to the future.
Majborough ran a remarkable race to finish as close as he did in the Arkle. I didn’t really think the nature of the old course would suit him, and I think that just about rang true. His jumping in the closing stages simply wasn’t good enough – he’s big and clumsy. To finish as close as he did in third shows just how much natural ability he has. A more conventional galloping track will suit him far better and while at a different venue I think he’d get away with two miles for now, his future most certainly lies over further. When he steps up in trip, he will be a proper force to be reckoned with as he has the scope for his jumping to improve.
From the same race, I think it’s quite clear Jango Baie isn’t a two miler, even though he won a Grade 1 at the distance. The two and a half mile novice chase at Aintree has got him written all over it. As long as the ground isn’t heavy, he’ll take the world of beating if he runs.
One horse that I backed who I won’t be giving up on yet is Whistle Stop Tour.
He’s a progressive stayer and had absolutely no chance in the Ultima after being severely hampered at the first fence by a faller. Completely write-off that run. He may well be given time to recover, but wherever he goes next over three miles, I’ll be backing him. As it’s also noteworthy that he was the choice of Derek Fox, despite the stable saddling the well-backed winner Myretown. Incidentally, the staying novice division in the UK is weak and you’d have to give Myretown a chance in the three mile novice chase at Aintree if he goes.
I imagine Resplendent Grey could be a horse people have put in their trackers following his running-on fourth in the National Hunt Chase. However, I think it’s the fact that he is just so slow that he can never get himself into the race, no matter how far it is. He runs on past beaten horses, and I couldn’t be backing him for anything.
Haiti Couleurs impressed me as the winner of the National Hunt Chase. He makes a brilliant shape over a fence – neat, accurate and fast. The fact he jumps that well along with having stamina in abundance, he effortlessly gets himself into a prominent position and can stay there. Rebecca Curtis mentioned the Irish National as a possible for him next and if he does go there, he’s well worth keeping on side.
The Turners Novice Hurdle was a proper race. The New Lion is a huge talent, and he will surely be a player in the Champion Hurdle division next season. If he runs at Aintree in a novice race, he’ll win. I loved The Yellow Clay’s effort as well and he’s one I’ll be backing at Punchestown whatever race he runs in.
I don’t think I’ll be going near Ballyburn in a chase. His jumping is terrible and he’s not a horse I can envision improving it. The shape he makes isn’t a natural one and he simply doesn’t look cut out for it. Avoid him. If he goes back over hurdles next season, then he’s a different proposition. Even though he was a disappointment, I don’t think it was a fluke from his stablemate Lecky Watson to win the Brown Advisory. He jumped well and galloped strongly through the line. He had some decent form the past couple of seasons without being top class, but he has clearly improved. I think he could be one that is overpriced if he goes to Punchestown.
The Champion Bumper surprised me as I generally don’t like the race. But they seemed to go quite slow and considering where Bambino Fever came from, I think she was a brilliant winner. The other one to take out of it is Idaho Sun. He lost his position quite badly rounding the bend, but he was the one who made dramatic headway in the final furlong. I’d like him if he goes to Aintree, but also next season as a staying novice hurdler.
Nurburgring was one who I thought had been laid out for a handicap and he possibly had. But he was weak in the market on the day of the race, and he never looked entirely comfortable to me. Whether it was the track I don’t know, but he came home well in the straight to finish fourth, which was a lot closer than I thought he was going to get. The distance was certainly no problem and he’s one I’ll be interested in for the remainder of the season at two and a half miles.
The Stayers Hurdle shocked me at the time, but looking back, I can see how it happened. In all of Bob Olinger’s hurdles runs at Cheltenham he has been electric; he’s a mile’s better horse there than anywhere else. I don’t think Teahupoo lost anything in defeat, and I’ll be backing him to retain his title at Punchestown. If he goes to Aintree instead, he’ll win that I would think.
I thought The Big Westerner ran a mighty race in defeat in the Albert Bartlett. She got blocked off at the second last hurdle which checked her momentum. There is no shame in losing out to last year’s Champion Bumper winner for Mullins and Townend. I would imagine the 2m4f Grade 1 Mares Novice at Fairyhouse will be on her agenda and over that trip I think she’s the one to beat back against her own sex.
The Gold Cup provided yet another surprise as Galopin Des Champs was usurped at the top of the staying division by Inothewayurthinkin. The reigning champion didn’t jump as he can and there’s a chance it was because the ground was a bit quick for him. Going into Punchestown, where Galopin Des Champs doesn’t produce his best, there will likely be value to be had. Fact To File was brilliant there over shorter earlier in the season, so he would be the one for me at this early stage. I thought Ahoy Senor emerged with credit before his fall and if he goes back to Aintree for another crack at the Bowl, he could go well.
Grand National
It will be an interesting lead up to the Grand National and if Inothewayurthinkin takes his chance. To see the Gold Cup winner running in the race would be brilliant for the sport. That being said, purely from a betting perspective, I don’t think he’s any value at 4/1.
Intense Raffles has been campaigned all season with this race in mind. However, all his best runs in Ireland have come right-handed and even though he did win at Auteuil as a three-year-old, a lot of water has gone under the bridge since then. I only mention it as he has had a tendency to adjust slightly right on the odd occasion this season, both left-handed over hurdles and at the second-last when coming under pressure at Fairyhouse. It’s nothing major, but I think it’s something worth noting.
Vanillier finished second in the Grand National in 2023 and I think he’ll put up another good effort. He disappointed in the race last year, but he hadn’t been in any form all season. It’s a different story this time around as he bolted up over the banks at Punchestown before finishing a running-on third in the Cross Country at Cheltenham, despite almost running out after nearly going the wrong way.
That was a great trial with a view to the Grand National and if he continues that form into Aintree, he’ll be bang there.
The other horse I want on my side is Kandoo Kid. He ran a blinder over the fences in the Topham last season when he was third. Stepping up in distance this campaign, he has taken his form to a new level. Winning the Coral Gold Cup was a great performance and it showed that he has stamina in abundance. His last run at Newbury in the Greatwood Gold Cup was purely a prep run for the Grand National so that can be ignored.
He ticks a lot of boxes in that he’s in the form of his life this campaign, has performed over the fences and has plenty of potential at the distance. He looks like an ideal type for the race.
Recommended Bet
Back Vanillier @ 20/1 Each Way
Back Kandoo Kid @ 25/1 Each Way
Alex Peperell
