Draw bias pays off
Well I came away with a nice profit from following the draw bias at Redcar yesterday, I hope you did to.
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“The 2:27 has eleven running so we're looking at draws 1 to 4.
The favourite is drawn 5!”
I ignored the favourite because of the bad draw and instead had a small bet in the place market on the horses drawn 3 and 4, which turned out to be joint favourites in the end, they finished 2nd and 3rd so both my bets won at 2.25 and 2.04.
So a nice profit on that race.
“In the 2:57 there are 13 running so we are looking at draws 1 to 4 again.
This time the first and second favourite (Toralou and Havana Prince) are drawn 3 and 4.”
I missed this race because I got called away, but the horse drawn 4 won at 5/1
“In the 3:27 we have 12 runners and again we are looking at draws 1 to 4.
This time we have a short priced favourite (Barefoot Warrior) drawn in stall 1.
There is a big gap here between the favourite at 11/8 and the second favourite (Mr King) at 9/1 drawn in stall 3.
The third favourite (Classic Encounter) is drawn 2.
Currently you can get a bigger price on Mr King and Classic Encounter in the Place Only market than you can get on the favourite to win.
The place only market has a 25% overround currently so that price may improve, but regardless, so far I have had a small bet for Mr King to place at 3.2 and Classic Encounter to place at 3.3.”
Even though the market was at a 25% overround in the morning my bets at 3.2 and 3.3 still beat the BSP.
Classic Encounter won so my place bet at 3.3 paid out and Mr King wouldn't go in the stalls and in hindsight I should have layed that bet back at that point which I could've done for a small profit, but I didn't and eventually he went in and finished nowhere. The short favourite finished 3rd and I didn't bet that.
Next up for the draw research is Pontefract on the 18th, I used to do very well following the draw at Pontefract and I'm not really sure why I stopped following it, but I will be paying more attention on the 18th.
You can read Dave's full article detailing the top 5 draw biases in the UK here https://www.oncourseprofits.com/those-draw-biases-again/
Good luck with all your bets today.
All the best
Darren Power
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