Irish Derby Weekend
Pretty Polly Stakes
There aren’t any prices out for this race yet, but I wanted to write about it anyway as I’ve got such a strong view. Kalpana will win this.
If you read my write-up on her for the Fillies And Mares race on Champions Day last year, you will know how much I like her. She is so straightforward and uncomplicated. Juddmonte sent Bluestocking over to win this prize last year and it looks as though they have the same plan in 2025.
Her form is top drawer, especially up against her own sex. She was beating the boys as well last year and her comeback run in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, where she finished a close third behind Los Angeles and Anmaat, with White Birch in fourth, was a belter of a return. That form alone is far and away the best in here, let alone what she was doing last season. She is a genuine King George contender and I’m just waiting for prices to come out for this. I hope she’s not too short. I seriously think anything odds against is a bet.
There is hope for some odds against if some of the three-year-olds run, most notably Whirl, who finished second in the Oaks. It’s hard to tell how that level of form will shape up against the older fillies, but for her to be reaching Kalpana’s level, she’s going to have to be in the top echelon and that is completely unknown. I’m happy to take my chances. Even more so because a three-year-old hasn’t won this since 2017.
If there is danger from the older horses, it would likely be Estrange, who put in a brilliant performance to win a Group 3 at Haydock on her return. However, that was over a mile and a half; that win and her efforts prior to that all point towards her being more effective over that distance. I don’t think she’d be able to match Kalpana’s speed over a mile and a quarter.
Recommended Bet
Back Kalpana @ 1/1 or bigger
Irish Derby
Lambourn was a runaway winner of the Derby, doing what Serpentine did from the same yard 5 years earlier.
Was he the best horse on the day? Absolutely.
Did he get the best ride in the race? Absolutely.
The way Epsom was riding both days of the Derby festival, Lambourn immediately had an advantage after the first furlong.
Of the 13 races that were run around the bend over the weekend, 7 of those winners sat either first or second throughout. It was such an advantage. That’s not to take anything away from Lambourn as he had the pace and was willing on the day to do that, but I think on a different day on a different track, you would get a different result.
And that’s what the Irish Derby is.
Odds on is a terrible price for Lambourn in my view and there is immediate value against him with the current second favourite in Tennessee Stud. He was third at Epsom but came from the back, as did Stanhope Gardens.
I’m not saying they will reverse the form, but they definitely can, given how the race played out and at the prices, I’d rather be with them than the favourite.
But, for a bet right now, I think Green Impact is well worth a punt.
I liked Delacroix for the Derby and whether he didn’t stay or what, I don’t know, but I like him as a horse and therefore his form lines. Green Impact beat him twice last season.
The fact he repeated that feat in the Champion Juvenile at Leopardstown was no fluke. He is a horse that tries and tries, but doesn’t do anything flashy or in a hurry.
The distance is an unknown as he is stepping up three furlongs from when he won at Leopardstown last time and until he tries, you sort of have to trust that he will stay and at the price, I feel that’s factored in.
Green Impact also won this season at a time when Jessica Harrington’s horses were only just getting started.
She has only had 10 winners so far this season and 5 of those have come since the 4th June. So, her horses are clearly starting to come right. If the distance is within his compass, he’s got a right chance.
Recommended Bet
Back Green Impact @ 14/1
Alex Peperell
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