A Q and A with Jon Roberts of Football Advisor

We are pleased to welcome Jon Roberts of Football Advisor this month to our Q and A session. Hi Jon, and many thanks for joining us this month, first off would you start by telling our readers a little about yourself and your background?

Sure thanks for having me here today.

Before moving to do this full time, I spent many years in the digital marketing world where I found I had an interest and mind for analytics and analysing data. I guess I’m one of those rare people who actually enjoys spending hours deep inside excel sheets!

Back in the early to mid 2000’s I found that the wealth and ease of access to data when it came to Horse Racing was far beyond anything you could get at the time when it came to Football, and although football has always been my passion, horse racing was a natural place for me to start when I decided to take my betting more seriously. Horse Racing was definitely where I originally cut my teeth in the betting world and found it was something that I could generate profits from.

Over the years I have built and developed various models and markers for analysing racing, football and other sports, allowing me to find an edge and develop profitable strategies. I would say my style of betting is 80% stats based (objective) and 20% opinion (subjective).

In the early days it was probably more like 60/40 but statistics, trends and models has become increasingly important to my betting approach over the years.

I first got involved on the tipping side around 2007/08 when I took over the running of a popular horse racing website called SystemLays.co.uk. It was something I really enjoyed and during this time I learned a huge amount, both from my own betting perspective and also what I felt was required to run a successful, popular and honest tipping service.

After a few years of running the site, I sold it on to concentrate solely on my own betting (sadly the site is no longer in existence) but it didn’t take long for me to return to the tipping world, this time with the intention of focusing on my true passion, which was football betting, with Football Advisor (www.FootballAdvisor.net) being born in early 2014 and just in time for that year’s World Cup.

I was fortunate to have retained a good bunch of loyal followers from my System Lays days and after resisting their calls to include horse racing selections in our offering, I relented about 18 months ago. What we offer members has significantly expanded and diversified over the last couple of years. So despite the Football Advisor name, we now offer Football and Horse Racing and a variety of betting types and strategies under this umbrella.

What attracted you to the world of football and what do you enjoy most about the sport? Do you have an interest in any other sports particularly and if so which and why?

As mentioned, Football has always been a passion of mine and it was the first sport I got actively involved in from a participation perspective. It was a natural progression to look at a way to profit from my personal knowledge, experience and passion for the sport.

It’s certainly a harder sport to make consistent long-term gains from, compared with say Horse Racing. My approach is similar to my Horse Racing betting, where I looked to source as much data as possible to build my own models.

This used to be quite a time consuming process as it was a lot harder to do find the data I wanted and, even then, a lot more work was required to make the data work the way I wanted to. This was one of the motivations for building Predictology (www.Predictology.co). which is a football betting system analyser and building platform – it has saved me personally hours and hours a week as I can automate a large part of the data crunching now, while also discovering new angles for our football betting. Over the last couple of years, we have made the platform available publicly allowing those that want to build their own systems a user friendly and accessible platform to analyse and develop their own football betting systems.

We now have over 200,000 matches in our database and it continues to grow.

What led you to set up footballadvisor.net? What do you feel Football Advisor offers its clients that other Football tipsters can’t?

I’ve been involved with offering tipping services since around 2007; I took a short break between selling System Lays and launching Football Advisor. In that time, I found that I had missed the interaction with members, the feeling of helping others make a success from their betting. I also found that by running a publicly available service it is a great motivator and provides structure and variety to my day, rather than if I was solely betting in isolation for my own ends.

Would you say that you have a “typical” working day, and how would you describe it?

I’m naturally a pretty early riser and as I’m not based in the UK right now, it gives me a head start on the analysis and markets before the UK really starts to wake up.

I’ve got a pretty structured process each day now for all the sports and markets that I work in. From start to finish, it usually takes me 2-3 hours each day purely analysing, running systems and preparing the days selections for each of our services. It can take a little more or little less depending on the day of the week (e.g. Saturdays naturally take longer). But this is something I do pretty much 7 days a week.

After that,

I’ll probably spend an hour catching up with emails and chatting or assisting members. The rest of the day can vary, sometimes it will be spent working on content for the website or newsletter, conducting longer term analysis or working on the website (which can feel like a full time job in itself sometimes). On other days, I may take some time off to do other things before settling in for the start of racing or the football in my evening – it’s nice to have the flexibility to chop and change my days when I feel the need.

What do you think of the world of sports tipping in general and what do you think people are in search of when it comes to their hunt for a successful tipster?

I feel there are a few issues and challenges when it comes to the punter/tipster relationship.

On the one hand, we have a big responsibility as tipsters to help educate and set realistic expectations and understanding about how much you can make from your betting. (expectation versus reality).

This can get lost in the supposed need for constant marketing of our services, results and returns and it has created a lot of scepticism and short term thinking in punters.

It’s got to the point where we have ended up writing a Football Advisor manifesto, as part of our relaunched product offering more of a betting portfolio approach. We share this with all readers for free, along with a free guide to setting up a profitable betting portfolio.

We strongly believe that a betting portfolio is the most effective approach for the majority of punters and we are trying to get off the marketing hamster wheel and it is our preference to look to work more closely with a smaller group of aspiring punters. We also want to offer more value and make the overall costs for accessing tipster’s services more cost effective and within reach for the normal punter.

In our main portfolio, we have now included something called The Lab, which we feel is unique in the market. We share live, every day 6-8 strategies that we have been working on and testing for some time and members can follow along for free. Once they reach a point where we feel it is 100% viable and validated, it will be moved into our portfolio and continue to be free to members. So over time, our members should get more and more profitable services, strategies and angles, while their membership stays the same.

We spent nearly a year reanalysing all of our services, working with mathematicians to model 1,000s of different scenarios against our results so that we could confidently develop our betting portfolios. Everything is covered when members sign up to their chosen portfolio type, getting their betting bank right, with three risk grading’s, their staking and most importantly the right expectations for the short and long term returns and profit potential.

Then those that want it, we are happy to work 1-on-1 with them to iron out any mistakes or knowledge gaps so that they can follow and run their portfolio effectively and profitably

Do you regularly bet yourself? What style of approach do you take to your betting? What do you think of staking plans, loss retrieval systems etc.?

80-90% of the bets we put forward on Football Advisor I will follow myself. The ones I don’t come down purely to logistics such as the time zone I may be in, running out of time in my day, or simply not have access to the bookmaker or market due to my own restrictions.

Outside of this, there are a few other sources that I’ve cultivated over the years that have experiences in sports or areas beyond my own expertise and I believe in their approach.

For example, I love Tennis, both watching and betting on but it’s not my area of specialism, yet sadly I am yet to find a reliable source for this but if any of your readers want to recommend one, I’d be happy to take a look.

As for staking and loss retrieval. Like most people, I’ve tried most things in the past, but for me, taking the Portfolio approach and sticking to level or adjusted stakes based on odds/value/edge is the one that works best to me. I’m yet to see a loss retrieval system that inspires me with enough confidence that it will work in the long term.

What traits do you think a good tipster should possess?

A good tipster needs the same traits as any punter who wants to be successful, perhaps even more so. They need to be mentally resilient, diligent, patient, organised and truthful – both to members and themselves.

Beyond that, we as Tipsters need to be realistic and transparent. There is no point putting up odds with one bookmaker and claiming that in our results if it’s not realistic that members could also get that price.

We take this quite seriously at Football Advisor and we have a member of the team who monitors prices at the time we issue them, 15, 30 minutes and 2 hours after issue as well as the off / kick off.

For example, on our FA Racing service. We only advise the Bet365 price shortly before sharing our selections. We believe this offers a fair mid-point market on prices and with a bit of effort on the punters part, they can realistically expect to match or beat or price on a regular basis. We also record our results at Betfair SP for comparison as well and the service is again profitable here, albeit with a slight drop in overall ROI.

New and old punters alike can struggle to make a success of their betting. If you could give them just one piece of advice to improve their profitability what would it be?

I believe you have to treat betting like any other investment vehicle. Think of it like a job, you need to do your research, be consistent, remove as much emotion as possible and have a long term focus and plan.

Honestly, the more successful I have become at betting the less enjoyment I take it from it at an individual bet level. Of course, I love looking at my long term profits and the feeling when I feel I have identified a new edge.

Specifically, you absolutely need to keep records of all your betting activities. Split this up between personal betting and each tipster you follow. Once you get into the habit of doing this daily it will be easy and become part of your daily routine. Don’t get hung on the short term results, but do analyse the long term trends and results on a regular basis.

Another thing we cover off in our betting portfolios is how and where to manage your money.

It’s important that your money can be fluid and with the right bookmaker for you to get the best odds possible. You do not need to get the very best odds every time, but you should be making the effort to find the best or near to the best prices on a regular basis.

What would you consider to be a highlight of your sporting experiences to date? Do you have any personal/betting experiences which when reflecting back bring a smile, or for that matter any which bring a grimace; you can share with our readers?

There are probably three betting highlights that always come to mind whenever this question gets asked.

The first, like many others, is my first bet on the Grand National, way before I took my betting seriously. It was the 2001 Grand National, the race which was run by Red Marauder at 33/1 and when only four finished. I think I had £2.50 each way on him – it was a great night in the pub with my mates that day.

Next would be War of Attrition winning the Gold Cup in 2006. I just loved that horse and it was the first time I felt confident enough in my approach to start betting early in to the Ante-post markets – I think I had started betting into him a month or two before at 18/1 and topped it up several times before the day – It was my first sizeable four single bet win.

The last fond memory is actually from just last November. I spent a number of years living in Australia and developed an affection for the Melbourne Cup. In my first year there I met a very interesting race chap who explained to me a staking model for getting good coverage on the exotics. I’ve followed it ever since had some good winners over the years on that race, but last year was something else with mid five-figure return. It certainly helped Christmas be a little extra special last year.

What about the gambling industry, is there anything you would like to see changed? Many of the website forums are full of criticisms of the bookmakers and their treatment of their customers? Is this something you have an opinion on?

I agree with what many who have been quite vocal on this and it really is appalling how many bookies treat their customers so poorly even with just a whiff of an astute punter.

Australia has actually made good progress in this area in which I believe the UK should follow with the introduction of a minimum bet law. As I understand it, every bookmaker now has to accept a bet, from any punter, on horse racing up to a minimum amount. Think it might be $20.

Australia isn’t perfect by any means, for example, it is still impossible to bet in-play online there, but MBL is definitely a step in the right direction.
And finally, what do you do to relax and unwind? What interests do you have outside of the world of sports tipping?

I’m fortunate to have a pool in the building that I’m living in currently and I like to take a dip when I need to clear my head or take a break from the screen. Simply lying back and floating is where I have done some of my best thinking recently. Even if not being overly thoughtful, simply heading for a dip and a float is a great way to clear the mind.

Travel is another big one for me. I look to travel as much as possible and I find it a great way to experience new things and also find time to relax and make long term plans.

I’m also an avid reader and I will try and get an hour reading in before sleep every night. I’m currently enjoying the Master of War series by David Gilman. I’m also a big fan of the The Last Kingdom series by Bernard Cornwell.