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Lose Less by John Cutts – Part V

Lose less book cover

Our next instalment of Lose Less kindly provided by the author, John Cutts.

Reviews for the book have been very positive with an overall 4 star rating.

If you take the advice in the next chapter, you can compound winnings.

CHAPTER 7 – Backing Multiples – A “Mug’s Game”?

I have said before, and repeat again, that backing in multiples is just as valid a staking method as singles. The maths works out the same except, of course, the strike rate goes down and so, therefore, must the unit stake.

Kathleen has two even money selections. She has bet £1 win single on each. Both win, so her return is £4, giving a profit of £2 on the two bets.

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Mark backs the same two horses but as a £1 win double. This pays a return of £4 – the same return for half the stake.

However, two will win 25% of the time (50% overall strike rate = 0.5, multiply this by itself and you get 0.25, or 25%), whereas one will win 50% of the time, or 0.5.

So, you can either win 25% of your bets at 3/1 or 50% at evens. In both cases, you will break even.

Obviously, you need to adjust your stake to a quarter of that of your singles as your strike rate has reduced.

So, if Mark bets ten pounds win single on two winning singles for a stake of total stake of 20.00, that would return forty pounds, (20 profit).

However, if Kathleen wanted to get the same cash return backing the same two horses in doubles, she would need to stake 6.66 to make the same profit.

6.66 x even money odds = return on the first leg of 13.32. This runs on to the second winning leg at evens = 26.64 returns for the double, minus the 6.66 stakes = 24.98. Knock off the stake of 6.66 and her profit is 19.98 as near as damn it 20.00.

So, as you can see, the same horses backed in multiples, will pay just the same as if backed in singles, so long as the stakes are weighted to allow for the reduced strike rate.

Just a word on staking. It is best to back to round numbers. In the case above two x 10. pounds singles (twenty pounds) or a seven pounds win double would get past the bookies’ radar.

They think if you are backing to what look like strange stakes, you are trading (backing and laying the same horse) which they consider their exclusive domain.

Excuse the maths lesson but there is something of a prejudice against backing multiples.

It is perfectly understandable. After all, the bookies have special slips for Yankees, Canadians etc and they wouldn’t do this if it wasn’t in their interest. You never, for example, see a special slip for a Round Robin.

Now I would not back Yankees etc. I stopped that years ago when our old mate Eric – who wasn’t great at picking winners but was a wizard when it came to staking – assured me I wouldn’t be kicking myself every time I got 3 winners if I just covered the 6 doubles and the acca. And you know what? He was right. I don’t ever remember that happening over the near 30 years since I took that advice.

As he pointed out, the reason the bookies love these bets is that, to take the Yankee again, if the first one goes down you have lost 7 of your 11 bets – 63.6% of your total stake!

I could be accused of labouring the point, but it does seem to me that the recession, depression, slump, stagnation – call it what you will – has made this more than just an academic question.

And now we have Covid and all the economic fallout from that too plus inflation which mocks all investments.

In these times, how many ordinary punters can take the advice offered in the past by many (us included), to set aside, for a betting bank, money for betting only etc, etc.? That must sound like mockery to some now!

The truth is that most punters are backing out of their pockets. Perhaps they always were but even serious backers are doing the same now. Why? Because they simply don’t have the money to operate a betting bank anymore. How many do?

The other thing that has changed, or rather exacerbated, is that more are looking for the big win.

We pundits can talk to you about LSP’s, ROI’s, POT’s, till we are blue in the face, but you want – truth be told we all want – that one big win that would make you financially independent. Or at least take the pressure off.

With all of the above in mind we can do one of two things. We can either (in vain in most cases) exhort you to patience and discipline, or we can try to help you in your quest for a big win – or at least some bigger wins.

Again, you can see a great example on the “My Big Win” screenshot – and there have been a number of smaller big wins.

That is what i think we are all striving for, and we have had a couple of very near misses for 40 and 50 Grand wins since.

However, to achieve this you need good selections and sensible staking. We can help you with both these things. But, making this the aim and acting accordingly doesn’t dispense with the need for patience and discipline.

These big wins don’t come around often. What you need to make sure of, as I did on my big win day, is that you are there when they do come along. You must be still in the game. And you won’t be if you throw the towel in after some inevitable losing run/s.

Now that the goal is set it is time to discuss how to achieve it. A lot depends on how many selections there are on the day. At the prices we generally back, we would need 7 or 8 winners for a high four figure win. If there are 8 or less selections, we will back them, one selection per race, in doubles and an accumulator.

For the reasons discussed above we don’t try to cover the Accu-Rate selections in a full perm as that would cost us a fortune.

Equally we don’t cover all the doubles, trebles, etc, etc, for 8 runners as that would cost us £247 to £1 unit stakes!

Yes, (and it has happened a fair few times), you may get 6 winners from 8 and then wish you had covered the 6-fold but, believe me, it is almost certain you would have gone bust by then trying to cover all the perms each time.

Also, don’t forget, in the 6 winners’ case, you would have the winnings from 15 doubles for the 6 winners. This is the main idea of this staking. If you get all the lot up, great, you have a big win that can pay for a holiday, car, home improvement or whatever you want. If you fall short, as you almost always will, the doubles keep you in the game.

So, the lesson from this chapter is to not be afraid to shoot for the stars. You may never succeed but what will you regret most at the end? That one pound accumulator stake you put on every day or that big win you missed.

And I don’t know about you, but none of us are getting any younger. I am 64 and long term, incremental bank growth becomes less appealing by the day. I want to win a big enough amount in one go and live long enough to enjoy it!

We cover all the daily portfolio in an acca every day to a one-pound stake and cover the doubles too when there are 8 selections or less or on a Saturday or ITV racing day. Don’t forget to play the ITV7 using any of these selections too, as it is the best value bet going – a bet to nothing, infinity! The ultimate value bet!

If we are home, we often play the accas down so that, if the first one goes down, we back the remainder in an acca for the next bet, and so on until the chance of a four-digit win has gone.

The lesson from this chapter is take all the selections you make using the systems and methods you learnt in this book to do a Daily one pound acca at least. Or, if funds are low to a lesser amount, as you can afford.

We will continue our serialisation next month, but if you would like to read the whole book right away you can buy it here