Newcastle Horse Racing Tips for Today
The Racing Horse offers their Newcastle AW Racecourse Template for Friday 3 November 2023.
There is a 9-race card containing 8 Handicaps and 1 Novice Race.
Winning Favourites (5 Years)
Non-handicap Handicap
2yo 66-177 37% -48.14 28-96 29% -11.09
3yo 116-228 51% -11.04 113-374 30% -59.01
4yo+ 34-89 38% -10.87 262-959 27% -182.03
TOTAL 216-497 43% -73.05 403-1429 28% -252.12
TOP 5 TRAINERS at NEWCASTLE past 5 years +/- E
R Fahey (11%) 81-680 12% -82.16 +1% 2
R Varian (20%) 46-176 26% -14.44 +6% 0
K Burke (13%) 46-384 12% +16.58 -1% 0
W Haggas (22%) 44-147 30% -4.79 +8% 0
D O'Meara (12%) 43-354 12% -22.80 +0% 6
HOT TRAINERS 00/10/2023 to 00/11/2023 +/- E
G Harker (9%) 2-5 40% -1.00 +31% 1
A Brown (12%) 3-10 30% +15.50 +18% 2
P Chapple-Hyam (12%) 3-11 27% +38.10 +15% 1
Miss L Perratt (7%) 5-19 26% -12.00 +19% 1
D Menuisier (12%) 6-24 25% +29.88 +13% 1
COLD LIST TRAINERS SAW E
J Butler (9%) 61 37 days 1
A Brittain (8%) 36 33 days 2
D Carroll (10%) 31 47 days 2
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at NEWCASTLE past 5 years +/- R
B Curtis (16%) 82-433 19% +37.50 +3% 0
P Mulrennan (12%) 79-659 12% -123.95 +0% 7
P J McDonald (12%) 68-508 13% -54.79 +1% 5
D Tudhope (17%) 66-309 21% +16.58 +4% 0
J Hart (12%) 66-544 12% +54.18 +0% 6
HOT JOCKEY 20/09/2023 to 19/10/2023 +/- R
B Wilkie (10%) 6-21 29% -1.62 +19% 1
R Sexton (12%) 4-18 22% +2.50 +10% 3
COLD LIST JOCKEY SAW R
Cam Hardie (5%) 60 27 days 7
Paul Mulrennan (12%) 29 16 days 7
TOP 5 OWNERS at NEWCASTLE past 5 years +/- E
Godolphin (25%) 34-117 29% -19.15 +4% 0
A Brittain (8%) 24-241 10% -60.32 +2% 0
K Abdullah (24%) 14-26 54% +27.63 +30% 0
Clipper Log (15%) 14-63 22% -8.32 +7% 0
King Power (14%) 13-71 18% -10.73 +4% 0
FIXTURES:
Tuesday 7 November 2023
FAVOURITES: Newcastle AW Racecourse Template provides a big sample so a reliable benchmark. Winning favourites at Newcastle over the past 5 years score 619-1926 for 32.14% (-325.17) so replicating the national average.
Best category is 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps showing 116-228 for 51% (-11.04), just a modicum of filtration could easily turn a profit. Worst category are 4yos+ winning favourites in handicaps recording 262-959 for 27% and a massive loss of -182.03 to level stakes.
TRAINERS: David O'Meara (12%) has 6 runners and expected to go close with one or two, his runners include ASCOT ADVENTURE 3.05, STAR SHIELD & HORTZADAR 3.40, MUSICAL DIVA 4.45 & STAR OF LADY M 5.45.
Strange that trainer David Menuisier (12%) makes the long journey north (336-miles) to race his 3yo Sioux Nation filly PELISSANNE for her debut, where she is the outsider of a 5-runner field. It does not make a lot of sense but somewhere there is a plan!
JOCKEYS: P J McDonald (12%) and Jason Hart (12%) are 2 jockeys from our leader board and they have 5 & 6 rides respectively.
Paul Mulrennan (12%) is an excellent jockey but his record at Newcastle is not a great one measured against his ability, he shows 79-659 for 12% and a massive loss to level stakes of -123.95. At the moment he is in the doldrums scoring 0-25 over the past 14 days and 0-29 over the last 16 days! He has 7 rides tomorrow and likely to come off the cold list, his rides include AYR POET 1.55, LIKEASHADOW 2.30, SPARKLING RED 3.05, IRISH FLAME 3.40, ZUFFOLO 5.15, RUNNINWILD 5.45 & VIOLETA 6.15
Our other cold list jockey is Cam Hardie (5%) who is without a winner from his last 60 rides over a period of 27 days. He also has 7 rides.
OWNERS: On this occasion none of the top 5 owners have a runner, though as a trainer Anthony Brittain (8%) has 2 runners.
Pertinence
1.55
REAL TERMS (G Tuer) C&D winner, something to spare having travelled strongly when winning at Haydock a couple of months ago, reassessed mark looks fair, Oliver Stammers rides
BASHFUL (I Jardine) C&D winner, 4-10 runs this year. 9/2, career best when winning Ayr handicap 22 days ago, William Pyle (5) rides
TARBAAN (A Murphy) improved to win last time out, Adam Farragher (3) rides
2.30
BEACH POINT (W Knight) drops from Class 4 to Class 6, P J McDonald rides
GREGORINA (P Chapple-Hyam) drops from Class 4 to Class 6, first time cheek pieces, Ryan Sexton (3) rides
MULCIBER (M Botti) drops from Class 4 to Class 6, Billy Loughnane rides
3.05
YORKSHIRE (E Bethell) beaten favourite last time out, first time tongue strap, Callum Rodriguez rides
SPORTING HERO (G Boughey) course winner, trainer 23% at the course, Billy Loughnane rides
DARE TO HOPE (R Fahey) winner last time out, remains feasibly treated and merits consideration. Oisin Orr rides
3.40
VINDOBALA (S England) winner in the last 7 days, Tom Eaves rides
HORTZADAR (D O'Meara) drops from Class 2 to Class 5, David Nolan rides
STAR SHIELD (D O'Meara) C&D winner. Latest win at Wetherby in June, creditable 6th of 12 in handicap over C&D 17 days ago needing stronger gallop, player here, Ben Robinson rides
4.15
PELISSANNE (D Menuisier) long traveller 336-miles, Adam Farragher rides
PARISH COUNCILLOR (D & N Barron) drops from Class 3 to Class 5, Rowan Scott rides
4.45
TORVAR (D O'Meara) beaten favourite last time out, first time cheek pieces, David Nolan rides
ELLIOTT (R Menzies) going the right way, may be able to follow up recent Wolverhampton victory. Archie Young (5) rides
ARLINGTON (B Smart) not ideally placed last time, better this time, Graham Lee rides
5.15
NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND (R Carr) beaten favourite last time out, Joanna Mason rides
PEPSI CAT (S Hollinshead) beaten favourite last time out, arrives here having run her best race yet when runner-up at Redcar in September, Dougie Costello rides
RODBOROUGH (A Brown) 2-6 this year. Latest win at Southwell in August. Respectable 2nd of 10 in C&D handicap 32 days ago. Less exposed than most but expected to face competition for the lead. Rowan Scott rides
5.45
CAPTAIN'S BAR (S Dixon) C&D winner in the last 7 days, now first time cheek pieces, Dale Swift rides
RUNNINWILD (Mrs A Duffield) C&D winner now drops from Class 3 to Class 5, Paul Mulrennan rides
STAR OF LADY M (D O'Meara) visored 1st time when respectable 3rd of 7 in Lingfield handicap 8 days ago, staying on having been left poorly placed. Not had much racing on AW, David Nolan rides
6.15
ANGEL AMADEA (R Menzies) beaten favourite last time out when attracting real support when 3rd in C&D 5 weeks ago, Cam Hardie rides
VIOLETA (B Haslam) forget last run when hampered final 1f, takes handy drop in class now and cheekpieces reached for. Paul Mulrennan rides
KODEBREAKER (M Herrington) good 3rd of 12 in Redcar Handicap 7f 37 days ago, a return to 1m may suit better, place chance at least if off a good pace, Tom Eaves rides
It’s a massive advantage to get anywhere near the fence in races on the round course at Newcastle, especially in an event like the Northumberland Plate, because the turns are long and, if you’re more than three or four deep, you’re forfeiting loads of ground. You need to be on a very good one to win from a wide berth. There’s a bit of a run off on the round track, too, where the ground tends to fall away from you quite steeply towards the initial bend. It’s a very fair track, though, beautiful to ride
– Jason Weaver
Paul Moon – The Racing Horse