So, where do you find systems?

So, if you are serious about setting up as a tipster, I hope you are giving it a go. Hopefully, you should be trialling some test systems in Horseracebase but in my case, I couldn’t get much further without more ideas.

So, where do you find systems?

One of the best ways can be television pundits. Yes, I know they have an awful reputation for the things they say and the measured results they get but think about it, they do have to fill your ears with an awful lot over a six race card, much of it researched ahead of time.

It is very unlikely that everything they will say is garbage. No more likely than that everything that they say is correct. 

Anything they tip is likely to be backed by us viewers thus reducing its price and therefore damaging their return when measured by ISP. No, the truth is they do a very tricky job fairly well for us. They have about 5 minutes to sum up a whole race for us and they try very hard to find reasons for and against all the shorter priced runners. And anything they say may be worth checking.

Often, they’ll say that trainer X does well with these types of runners, or jockey Y does well at this track, or even that offspring of a certain sire frequently wins these types of races. So, what you have to do is fill in the gaps. What type of runners, what type of races? As usual, HRB is your friend.

Remember you can test anything, more or less, in HRB.

I always start with the date (Year) box ticked for 2021-2026 to give me five years of data but that’s just my preference. By all means, pick your own, but always stick to it to avoid backfitting as much as you can.

Next, I fix the odds to avoid the highest priced winners that are unlikely to happen again. Say 33/1 or thereabouts.

Then let’s assume the commentator talked about Owen Burrows.

Then I’ll usually try to break down the runners by jockey. Burrows uses many jockeys and has proved profitable with 13 of them during this timeframe.

Next, I will try tracks.

HRB tells me he is profitable at 15 tracks. That’s a very high number.

On we go to distance to no real improvement. The two he has not profited at have extremely small numbers.

You can try other things like race type or handicap versus non-handicaps but you still won’t find much to exclude.

Next try the horse data. Sex provides nothing to exclude. Headgear appears to be a no-no but with very few runners. Age matters little.

Try as I might, I can find little else to make any real difference so this is my final system from one commentator’s apparent off the cuff remark, but actually something he would have researched first.

You currently have 7 categories with specifications in your system.

This has produced 210 bets in the last 5 years and 202.27 points profit. How easy this would be if this provided the same over the next 5 years but at least you have something to test.

I would save this system and keep a record until it produces 20 points of profit before releasing it for my Racecracker members. I’ll keep you informed.

So, remember, you can use anything that a commentator says as a potential system. Over time, you will learn which commentators to trust and which not. I will keep my own thought to myself on this matter!

And commentators are only the start.

Do you receive constant e-mails from horse racing related authors? I do.

Do you read them and dump them? I don’t.

I save them and research them at some point. I rarely have time to do them when they arrive but save them up for when I can find the time and have a day at them. 

Only one thing disappoints me about researching this way and it’s not the time it takes, it’s the amount of rubbish that circulates.

The very least I expect from a publicly made statement whether it be audio or email is a testable hypothesis.

What I, in fact, get is a percentage of tripe that never has been a workable system in any shape or form from which I assume something has been lost in translation.

It’s a better explanation than the alternative but you must assume that your testing will be equally trying from time to time.

Don’t give up when it does!

Clive Jones