The Pep Talk – Summer Festivals

I want to start off by touching on the King George at Ascot on 25th July. At the time of writing, it looks as though it’s going to be an International showdown with Calandagan and Masquerade Ball making the journey from France and Japan respectively. You would think one of those will win. But it’ll be very interesting to see what Aidan O’Brien runs. Both Benvenuto Cellini and Minnie Hawk are in the mix. I would have preference for the latter, but I’d want her as an each way bet to nothing (3 places) if the aforementioned pair at the head of the market turn up. So it’s no bet at this stage.

Nassau Stakes

This is going to be another clash to determine how good this classic generation of fillies are over middle distances. Diamond Necklace is the one heading the market and considering she’s unbeaten in 5 starts, including 3 Group 1s, it’s not hard to see why. However, she only scraped home by a neck in the Prix de Diane and she’s going to continue to be a short price until she’s beaten. She’ll be stepping in against her elders for the first time, and it won’t be easy.

Estrange has already swatted one Oaks winner aside this season and I think she’ll do that again at Goodwood. Note that Goodwood is a unique track, so the fact Estrange has already won there is a massive tick in her box.

She got her deserved first Group 1 at the Curragh last time, when dropping down to this distance for the first time since November 2024. There is no doubt at all about her speed for the distance and I actually think this is her optimum trip. She hosed up in Ireland, cruising round the outside before putting the race to bed easily. The Oaks winner from Epsom, Thundering On, didn’t do much for the three-year-olds and Precise also couldn’t advertise that generation in the Falmouth either.

I think the older mares have the upper hand this year and Estrange is a model of consistency. She’s won 5 of her last 7 starts and the 2 she didn’t win, she finished 2nd to Minnie Hawk and Kalpana. The form stacks up and I think she wins the Nassau.

Recommended Bets

Back Estrange @ 4/1

Lillie Langtry Stakes

I’m following a form line for Goodwood, as Estrange beat Waardah in a Group 3 at Carlisle in May. I think the latter can make it back-to-back wins in the Lillie Langtry. That race at Carlisle was definitely short of her optimum, as she produced a clear career-best when winning this race last year over 3 furlongs further.

She ended last season disappointingly in the Fillies and Mares at Ascot on Champions Day, but that was a Group 1 on a different track. Her return when beaten by Estrange was far more like it and that’s strong form. Waardah is two from two at Goodwood, which counts for plenty.

Recommended Bets

Back Waardah @ 5/1

City Of York Stakes

It’s great that this is a Group 1 and the betting is wide open. This would be a great spot for Talk Of New York, so I hope Charlie Appleby runs him.

When he’s good, he’s very good. As he showed when winning at Newmarket and Sandown earlier in the year. He ran an absolute belter in the St James’s Palace at Royal Ascot. Pulling hard in the hood, it shows how much ability is in him to finish as close as he did to 2 top horses in Bow Echo and Gstaad. I think that’s some of the best form on offer this season (we’ll know for sure after the Sussex Stakes).

The way he races, I can only see dropping to 7f at York helping him. He’s got the speed, but he also has the finishing power. I’ll be excited if he turns up here and there is no way he’ll be 7/1.

Recommended Bets

Back Talk Of New York @ 7/1

Ebor Handicap

Despite the Ebor being one of the most competitive handicaps of the season, it has paid to look near the top of the market in recent years. Since 2020, there has been 1 winner at 10/1 and the other 5 have all been shorter, including 3 favourites.

Klassleader is near the top of the market but I imagine he could be at the very top of it come race day. He is an improving four-year-old, which are forces to be reckoned with in races like these.

Making his seasonal return at York in May, he certainly appeared as though he had improved with a winter on his back, as he romped home with an extremely strong final couple of furlongs. That had the hallmarks of a horse going in the right direction.

While he was ultimately very disappointing at Newmarket in July, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was the track he struggled with there. He wouldn’t be the most elegant mover I’ve seen and I wonder if the undulations caught him out. Back on a track he’s proven himself at, still with improvement left in him, I think he can go very well in the Ebor.

Recommended Bets

Back Klassleader @ 14/1

Alex Peperell