Cheltenham Horse Racing Tips for Today
(You can find Alex Peperell's latest ante post bets here https://www.oncourseprofits.com/the-pep-talk-the-cheltenham-festival/
The Racing Horse offers their insightful Cheltenham Racecourse Template for Saturday 27 January 2024.
There is an 8-race card where the going is expected to be good to soft, soft in places.
This is the last meeting before the Festival which starts on Tuesday 12 March 2024.
FAVOURITES (5 years) NON-HANDICAP RACES HANDICAP RACES Hurdle 41-106 39% -17.84 24-94 26% -5.09 Chase 50-110 45% +4.49 31-120 26% -18.11 NHF 7-27 26% -4.88 0-0 TOTAL 98-243 40% -18.22 55-214 26% -23.20 TOP TRAINERS at Cheltenham (past 5 years) +/- E N Henderson (22%) 36-226 16% -31.05 -6% 8 W P Mullins (11%) 32-263 12% -118.03 +1% 2 D Skelton (18%) 21-224 9% -85.16 -9% 4 H De Bromhead (14%) 20-122 16% +16.02 +2% 0 G Elliott (18%) 20-213 9% -20.74 -9% 0 P Nicholls (24%) 19-209 9% -107.25 -15% 6 HOT TRAINERS 28/12/2023 to 26/01/2024 +/- E J Owen (21%) 5-11 46% +1.25 +25% 1 W P Mullins (11%) 44-126 35% -6.68 +24% 2 T Lacey (16%) 5-15 33% -1.00 +17% 1 J Williams (14%) 5-17 29% +3.50 +15% 1 J Snowden (18%) 6-26 23% +3.60 +5% 2 COLD TRAINERS SAW R L Russell (13%) 30 21 days 1 H Daly (14%) 25 31 days 1 TOP JOCKEYS at Cheltenham (past 5 seasons) +/- R N de Boinville (22%) 23-133 17% +1.54 -5% 0 S T-Davies (15%) 21-180 12% -54.06 -3% 6 H Skelton (21%) 19-178 11% -87.16 -10% 0 P Townend (19%) 18-80 23% -9.81 +4% 2 H Cobden (23%) 16-176 9% -74.91 -14% 7 R Blackmore (18%) 15-79 19% -16.10 +1% 0 HOT JOCKEYS 28/12/2023 to 26/01/2024 +/- E P Townend (19%) 25-47 53% +3.02 +34% 2 S Sheppard (15%) 6-15 40% +12.75 +25% 1 J Bowen (13%) 15-54 28% -2.62 +15% 6 B Jones (14%) 8-36 22% +5.00 +8% 1 COLD JOCKEY SAW R S Houlihan (6%) 58 70 days 1 TOP OWNERS at Cheltenham (past 5 season) +/- E J P McManus (17%) 27-220 12% -55.89 -5% 5 Cheveley Park (29%) 9-22 41% +16.49 +12% 0 Munir & Souede (18%) 8-81 10% -29.27 -8% 0 Mrs J Donnelly (30%) 6-34 18% -12.68 -12% 1 Gigginstown (6%) 6-87 7% -9.90 +1% 0
RACECOURSE CONFIGURATION: Left handed, undulating. Stiff fences that place a premium on sound jumping. The last half mile is uphill, although the lead changes hands on the run-in less frequently than might be expected. Prominent-racers often fare well on the chase course, especially in races up to 3m.
On the New Course, the hurdles track has just two flights in the last six furlongs, resulting in more emphasis on stamina; large-field races over two miles often go to hold-up horses, as there can be a tendency to go for home too soon. Jockeys often steer a wide course in the winter months searching for better ground and this can lead to trouble in-running towards the stand rail in the straight.
WINNING FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Cheltenham over the past 5 years show 153-457 for 33.48% so a strike rate just above the national average but with a loss of -41.42 at SP to level stakes. Winning favourites in non-handicaps win at 40% whilst winning favourites in handicaps win at 26% for a 14% differential.
Best Category: Chases in non-handicaps 50-110 for 45% (+4.49)
Worst Category: Chase handicaps 31-120 for 26% (-18.11)
TRAINERS: Nicky Henderson (22%) has 8 runners at this meeting and going head to head with Paul Nicholls for the honours. His runners include SIR GINO 12.05, PERSIAN TIME 12.40, EXCELLO 1.15, JONBON 2.25, FIRST STREET 3.00, CHAMP 3.35, CHOCCABLOC & LUCKY PLACE 4.10.
JOCKEYS: Harry Cobden (23%) has 7 rides, Sam Twiston-Davies (15%) and James Bowen (13%) have 6 rides each, whilst Paul Townend (19%) has 2 rides.
Multiple winners are expected and these 4 jockeys they should dominate the card!
OWNERS: J P McManus (17%) has 5 entries including MILAN TINO 12.05, CAPODANNO 1.50, JONBON 2.25, CHAMP 3.35 & JOHNNYWHO 4.10.
RED FLAG: Paul Nicholls has a national average of 24%, Harry Fry has one of 18%, Dan Skelton also strikes at 18% whilst Harry Derham scores at 26% and we note a correlation. It is that each of these trainers (all out of Ditcheat Stable) score 9% or less at Cheltenham and from a big sample size, one cannot help but think it is largely down to the type of horses they each now acquire.
We look closely at the 5-year figures of Nicholls at Cheltenham and for context purposes compare the CHAMPION TRAINER with Fergal O'Brien (10%), Nigel Twiston-Davies (10%) & Nicky Henderson (16%).
One senses he should be scoring closer to the Henderson strike rate at Cheltenham given his elite status!
Hurdles: 6-85 7% -45.42 Chase: 12-112 11% -53.83 NHF: 1-12 8% -8.00 Total: 19-209 9% -107.25
Tomorrow looks as if Nicholls has a real chance to boost his lowly figures at this course?
We note there are course and distance winners amongst his entries which should help matters. His 6 runners include GINNY'S DESTINY 12.40, HITMAN & IL RIDOTO 1.15, STAY AWAY FAY 1.50, RUBAUD 3.00 and ISAAC DES OBEAUX 4.10 and on the book he looks to have a win double opportunity, but we have been here before…
Pertinence
12.05
BURDETT ROAD (J Owen) trainer believes he has the winner of the Triumph, needs to win this first. Trainer 25% with hurdlers up to 2m2f, Harry Cobden rides.
SIR GINO (N Henderson) hugely progressive but babyish, trainer has won 4 of the last 10 runnings and 27% with hurdlers up to 2m2f. James Bowen rides.
12.40
GINNY'S DESTINY (P Nicholls) C&D winner, seeking hat-trick. Trainer 24% with chasers 19f to 3m, Harry Cobden rides.
THEATRE MAN (R Bandey) beaten favourite last time out, on a good mark, trainer +£74.58 when one runner on the card (chases), Harry Bannister rides.
TIGHTENOURBELTS (E Lavelle) drops from Grade 1 to Class 2, Thomas Bellamy rides.
1.15
HITMAN (P Nicholls) beaten favourite last time out, drops from Grade 2 to Class 1, trainer won 2 of the last 5 runnings, Freddie Gingell (5) rides.
IL RIDOTO (P Nicholls) (C&D winner), trainer won 2 of the last 5 runnings, Harry Cobden rides.
VICTTORINO (V Williams) trainer won 2 of the last 10 runnings, Charlie Deutsch rides.
1.50
ROYAL PAGAILLE (V Williams) beat Bravemansgame in Betfair Chase at Haydock on return, not certain to back that up under penalty, Charlie Deutsch rides.
STAY AWAY FAY (P Nicholls) course winner, exciting novice seeking hat-trick, Harry Cobden rides.
2.25
JONBON (N Henderson) cannot be opposed, James Bowen rides and 35% on chase favourites.
EDITEUR DU GITE (G Moore) C&D winner, trainer won 2 of the last 10 runnings, Neil Houlihan rides.
3.00
LOSSIEMOUTH (W P Mullins) C&D winner, 5 wins from 6, huge reserves and sound as a pound (trainer's words). Landed the Triumph here and the Champion Juvenile at Punchestown when last seen 9 months ago. Paul Townend rides.
LOVE ENVOI (H Fry) C&D winner, rusty on return, sharper today, Jonathan Burke rides.
3.35
PAISLEY PARK (E Lavelle) horse and trainer have won 3 of the last 4, Tom Bellamy rides.
DASHEL DRASHER (J Scott) tough and likeable sort who narrowly denied Paisley Park in Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in December (6lb worse off here), Rex Dingle rides.
4.10
GIDLEIGH PARK (H Fry) unbeaten seeking 4-timer, this race was the plan last year, Jonathan Burke rides.
ANTRIM COAST (G Cromwell) beaten favourite last time out, Keith Donoghue rides.
To the naked eye, or to the layman, Cheltenham looks very stiff, but the two courses are actually totally different and I rate the Old Course much the quicker. So, especially on that, you need a horse that can travel easily within itself. Without one of those, you invariably find yourself snookered, because you’re always trying to get into a position to improve. Ideally, therefore, you need a horse that can get into a gap as soon as one appears, because there’s so little time to manoeuvre. If you have to think about going for a gap, nine times out of ten it’s too late – someone else will have got into it before you. As for the uphill finish, it only rides really testing if you’re on one that’s tying up. Then, it feels like an eternity from the last to the line.
– Mick Fitzgerald
Paul Moon – The Racing Horse