The Racing Horse offers their RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Cheltenham for Saturday 12 November 2022.
There is a 7-race card containing 2 Handicap Chase Races, 2 Handicap Hurdles, a Grade 2 Chase and a Grade 2 Hurdle and a NHF Race.
The going is expected to be good to soft.
FAVOURITES NON-HANDICAP (5 YEARS) HANDICAP (5 YEARS) Hurdle 37-101 37% -21.08 23-86 27% +6.78 Chase 46-108 40% +5.68 26-104 25% -21.81 NHF 6-24 25% -4.13 Total 89-233 38% -19.53 49-190 26% -15.03 TOP 5 TRAINERS at Cheltenham (5 years) +/- E N Henderson (23%) 31-237 13% -33.33 -10% 7 W P Mullins (13%) 29-239 12% -36.02 -1% 1 G Elliott (15%) 22-194 11% -38.59 -4% 1 F O'Brien (17%) 19-160 12% +2.17 -5% 3 D Skelton (19%) 18-211 9% -102.17 -9% 3 P Nicholls (24%) 17-199 9% -118.00 -15% 5 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Cheltenham (5 years) +/- R N de Boinville (22%) 18-122 15% +38.89 -8% 4 H Skelton (22%) 18-167 11% -63.17 -10% 4 S Twist-Davies (16%) 17-173 10% -62.19 -7% 3 P Brennan (16%) 13-125 10% -15.25 -6% 2 H Cobden (22%) 10-153 7% -107.47 -15% 4 TOP 5 OWNERS at Cheltenham (5 years) +/- E J P McManus (17%) 27-229 12% -75.04 -5% 1 Cheveley Park (30%) 10-24 42% +14.69 +12% 0 Munir & Souede (18%) 7-92 8% -67.12 -10% 0 Gigginstown (6%) 6-111 5% -33.75 -1% 0 White Underhill (25%) 5-14 36% +23.72 +11% 1 FIXTURES Saturday 12 November 2022 Sunday 13 November 2022 (%): National Average SAW: Since a winner E: Entries R: Rides Friday's results not included
FAVOURITES – Winning favourites at Cheltenham over the past 5 years show 138-423 for 32.62% (-34.56) so a strike rate just below the national average.
Winning favourites in handicaps perform particularly badly at the course with 49-190 for 26% yet conversely show a level stake loss of just -15.03.
COURSE – One thing is for certain at Cheltenham, there are no freebies at this course, and our 5-year totals prove it conclusively.
None of the top 6 trainers can match their national average at this course, in fact Paul Nicholls (24%) scores at just 9%, a big 15% short of his national average!
We are never confident backing one of his runners at this course and something we accept does not, should not, make sense!
We have wondered for a while now if he is acquiring a different type of horse now? The question might be nonsense of course.
When we last saw Blackjack Kentucky run, I nearly asked the question to him but got interrupted just as I about to speak and the opportunity was lost! I was due a stable visit to his stables and was going to ask there, but that got cancelled. Anyway, why is he 9% at Cheltenham? Fergal O'Brien scores at 12%, Gary Moore scores at 11%, Kim Bailey 10%.
His national average is 24% so miles clear of his rival trainers!
FACT: Dan Skelton has more winners at Cheltenham in the last 5 years than Paul Nicholls, what's more so does Fergal O'Brien from less runners.
Nicholls had a great winner on Friday with Hermes Allen and he has 5 runners for Saturday including Monmiral.
TRAINERS – Nicky Henderson had just one runner on Friday, he has 7 on Saturday and we hope he will be amongst the winners!
He is in great form and his last 14 days show 8-19 for 42%.
Willie Mullins (13%) and Gordon Elliott (15%) both have 1 runner each whilst Dan Skelton (19%) and Fergal O'Brien (17%) have 3 runners each.
JOCKEYS – Nico de Boinville, Harry Skelton and Harry Cobden all have national averages of 22% and all three have 4 rides each, they will surely dominate the meeting on Saturday.
BY THE WAY – PENTLAND HILLS is a Pacafi.
There are a few bookmakers offering 3 places in this 7-runner field but the 6/1 offered by Bet365 is perceived value plus!
TUDDENHAM GREEN (A King) beaten favourite last time out, Tom Cannon rides.
BLUEKING D'OROUX (P Nicholls) formerly with A Chaille-Chaille, trainer has won 2 of the last 10 runnings, Harry Cobden rides and 50% on hurdling favourites.
PERSEUS WAY (G Moore) formerly with O Burrows, Jamie Moore rides
MALINA GIRL (G Cromwell) beaten favourite last time out, Mr J Dunne.
DIDERO VALLIS (V Williams) drops from Grade 3 to Class 3, weighted to win 130 > 127, trainer shows a profit of £68.11 with horses running after a break, Miss Lucy Turner rides.
BOBHOPEORNOHOPE (K Bailey) trainer shows a profit of £30.87 with horses running after a break, Miss Gina Andrews rides.
PENTLAND HILLS (N Henderson) looks the winner and Pacafi status, Nico de Boinville rides.
MONMIRAL (P Nicholls) main danger, Harry Cobden rides.
STOLEN SILVER (S Thomas) trainer shows profit of £37.27 when one runner at a meeting, Sam Twiston-Davies rides.
GA LAW (J Snowden) drops from Grade 1 to Grade 3, Jonathan Burke rides.
IL RIDOTO (P Nicholls) drops from Grade 1 to Grade 3, trainer has won 2 of the last 10 runnings, trainer shows profit of £10.27 with chasers running after a break, Harry Cobden rides.
ON THE BLIND SIDE (N Henderson) beaten favourite last time out, trainer has won 2 of the last 5 runnings, Nico de Boinville rides.
SIDI ISMAEL (D Pipe) trainer has won 2 of the last 10 runnings, Tom Scudamore rides.
SHEARER (P Nicholls) less exposed than most, arrives on back of C&D novice victory 3 weeks ago, A P Heskin rides.
GUERNESEY (P Hobbs) beaten favourite last time out, Jack Martin rides.
WISEGUY (N Henderson) trainer 23% with hurdlers 2m2f up to 2m6f, Nico de Boinville rides.
TIME FLIES BY (N Henderson) trainer 23% with hurdlers 2m2f up to 2m6f, James Bowen rides.
LUCCIA (N Henderson) trainer 24% with horses running 2m to 2m1f in bumpers, 23% national average and early season, Nico de Boinville rides.
QUEENS GAMBLE (O Sherwood) C&D winner. Out of a winning hurdler/chaser 16/1 when scoring impressively in bumper here 7 months ago. Form looks solid and an exciting prospect, main threat. Jonathan Burke rides.
To the naked eye, or to the layman, Cheltenham looks very stiff, but the two courses are actually totally different, and I rate the Old Course much the quicker. So, especially on that, you need a horse that can travel easily within itself. Without one of those, you invariably find yourself snookered, because you’re always trying to get into a position to improve. Ideally, therefore, you need a horse that can get into a gap as soon as one appears, because there’s so little time to manoeuvre. If you have to think about going for a gap, nine times out of ten it’s too late – someone else will have got into it before you. As for the uphill finish, it only rides really testing if you’re on one that’s tying up. Then, it feels like an eternity from the last to the line – Mick Fitzgerald
Paul Moon – The Racing Horse
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