Research Corner – Can following the runners from the Paul Nicholls yard be profitable?
There are many column inches in both the trade publications and daily newspapers about the exploits of trainer Paul Nicholls, he play’s host to several blogs such as his role as a Betfair Ambassador on the https://betting.betfair.com sports portal.
He obviously knows a thing or two about training horses, especially National Hunt ones, having achieved the accolade of being a 12 time winner of the Trainers Championship.
Based out of Ditcheat he remarkably started his training career with just 8 horses during October 1991 and I remember with great fondness the success he had with See More Business who he trained to win the King George twice, 1997 & 1999, and completed the double in the latter year in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
To set the scene let’s look at his National Hunt record during the last decade: –
Year in year out he has clocked up 1 in 5 winners with his runners and blindly backing them all would have resulted in a small loss of 3.15 pence in the pound at the returned Betfair SP, which given the trainers high profile is no mean feat!
It does go without saying that the bookmakers know that his runners will attract plenty of punters, and yes at times the horses are marked up at shorter odds than their form profile and achievements to date may warrant.
The Actual vs Expected figure of 0.91 does highlight that fact but rather than backing all of the stable’s runners can we find some sensible filters to home in on the more likely ones?
What sets the top notch trainers from the rest is their ability to place their runners in the right races, those in which they have the best chance of progressing and winning. Yes the top trainers generally attract potentially the best horses but equally they need to be fulfilling their potential to keep the top owners coming back.
The Paul Nicholls training establishment is licensed to train 150 horses and to get the best of them the yard has a dedicated and skilled team along with world class gallops.
To place 1 in 5 runners to emerge victorious year in year out take some achievement and if you spend some time reading the https://betting.betfair.com blog you can see the level of detail that the trainer and staff get into about each individual horse.
Most of the regular punters peruse each day’s race cards and try to pick out which horse may have the best chance of winning a race. Some specialise in handicaps and use the formbook to try and determine which horse has the best profile to win and back it accordingly.
An alternative approach could be to focus on a particular trainer and try to get into their mindset and training habits. A recent example with Paul Nichols was as follows: –
In the blog post covering the runners for Saturday 26th February Nicholls made the following comments about one of the horses: –
Will improve for outing but he has a bright future.
Kempton 16:45 – Spago
He is a nice prospect from a very good female line and does everything right at home. I've been waiting for him to make his debut on better ground and am hoping he has a bright future. Like all of my bumper horses he will improve for the experience.
The Racing Post had this to say in their Spotlight assessment of the Nicholls horse:-
22,000 euros foal, fourth foal, dam well beaten 1m4f AW flat/2m hurdles but a half-sister to nine winners including smart flat/jumps winner Shooting Light. Respected newcomer for a yard that’s won two of the last four runnings, has had wind surgery.
If you had just read the RP write up it might have you tempted into backing the Nicholls runner but was today going to be the day given the trainers remarks about “bumper horses improving for the run”.
As it turned out Spago went off as the 13/2 third favourite and came home in 4th place beaten 8 ¾ lengths.
If we look at the runners in Bumpers trained by Paul Nicholls with the criteria of previous runs in Bumpers we find the following: –
The Strike Rate and A/E improve with experience which backs up what Nicholls said in his blog about Spago and his Bumper runners in general.
This is just one example of how by taking a selective approach you may be able to avoid some losers and home in on backing the winners from the Paul Nicholls stable.
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Until next time
Steve Carter
Featured Image: CC BY 4.0 – Paul Nicholls and Lumpy’s Gold