The Pep Talk – The Cheltenham Festival
National Hunt Chase
It feels as though there has been a good bit of chopping and changing when it comes to the National Hunt Chase this season and it hasn’t been clear who may, or may not, be running. But the waters are running clearer now, and it appears Embassy Gardens is Willie Mullins’ number one hope as Nick Rockett and Minella Cocooner aren’t necessarily even going to Cheltenham.
If Corbetts Cross runs at the Festival, it looks like it’ll be here. But his jumping leaves a lot to be desired and I think he’s poor value. The one who I do think is excellent value here is Broadway Boy for Nigel Twiston-Davies. He’s entered in the Brown Advisory as well, but he can’t realistically win that, and I’d like to think his connections will opt for the easier option of the National Hunt Chase.
Experience is valuable in this contest and Broadway Boy has enough of that, having run 7 times over hurdles and 5 times over fences. He’s won 3 of those chase starts, 2 of them being at Cheltenham. He won a novice chase on the old course (same as the National Hunt Chase) over three miles at the November meeting by 20-lengths.
Then what was more impressive was him winning a handicap on the new course over 3m2f, beating some experienced and high quality horses which included Grade 1 winner Protektorat, who was back in 3rd. That level of form and the experience of that will stand him in really good stead heading into this.
His run in the Hampton at Warwick was a disaster – it was his fifth run in three and a half months, he was conceding weight all round and himself and Apple Away went hammer and tongs the whole way and cut each other’s throats. It was a run to completely ignore with regard to the rest of the season and I like that they’ve given him plenty of time to recover from that.
Broadway Boy is an extraordinarily strong stayer, is a bold but safe jumper, has course form and has the required experience for the task at hand. This is a great chance to upset the Mullins applecart at the start of the week. There is some 14/1 available with Betfair ante post which looks very generous to me, but it means if he does go to the Brown Advisory then the bet is lost. But there’s plenty of 10/1 available non runner money back, so it’s down to personal preference given he could run in the other race.
Recommended Bet
Back Broadway Boy @ 14/1 ante post or 10/1 NRMB
Stayers Hurdle
As has been the case the last few years, the Stayers Hurdle is wide open.
Teahupoo heads the betting, and this has been the plan since he won the Hatton’s Grace in December. But I’m just not sold on Teahupoo. The ground came up perfect for him last year, but he was beaten by 33/1 Sire Du Berlais and 40/1 Dashel Drasher. His beating of Impaire Et Passe in December is fine, but that horse has hardly advertised the form since.
If he runs, I think Irish Point could win this relatively comfortably. He doesn’t do anything flashy, but he does everything well, he’s just solid and dependable. He jumps, settles, travels, stays.
When he was stepped up to three miles over Christmas, you could excuse him for being keen considering it was his first go at the trip and they went slow, but he settled beautifully. Irish Point put that race to bed effortlessly and I’ve seen a few things where people have said that doesn’t prove he stays three miles, but my view would be that he didn’t prove that he doesn’t stay.
The style in which he did it, you can’t help but be impressed. He’s the up and comer in this division for me, but what is slightly concerning from a punting perspective is that Gordon Elliott has said there is a significant possibility he could run in the Champion Hurdle.
I could understand that to a certain extent given he could get third there especially as the race will likely cut up, plus Teahupoo is under the same ownership. But he’s got no chance of winning the Champion Hurdle you’d think, whereas he’s got a leading chance in the Stayers Hurdle.
So, the non runner money back concession is coming in handy here.
I’ll also give a word of advice that if both Irish Point and Teahupoo are declared here, whoever Jack Kennedy chooses will be the shortener in the market, so if we get any clues as to who he will be riding, it’ll be an indicator as to how we can expect the market to react. But what I would be hoping, even if he opts for Teahupoo, Rachel Blackmore could well be on Irish Point as the only entry Henry De Bromhead has is Ballyadam.
Recommended Bet
Back Irish Point @ 7/2 NRMB
Gold Cup
What Galopin Des Champs has done on his last couple of starts has been brilliant, especially over Christmas. The fact he’s defending champion just adds more meat to the bone for his supporters. I don’t think it’s mad to say that he’s probably the best staying chaser to perform at a consistently high level arguably since Kauto Star and Denman. Kauto was the last horse to go off odds on for a Gold Cup and that was 2010, so it doesn’t happen often.
As good as he’s been, I can’t back Galopin at odds on here.
I think Shishkin has a right chance.
What he did in the Denman Chase at Newbury was ideal, he started with no bother at all and jumped well. Nico De Boinville just had to cajole him along, but he won with plenty in hand, and he stays and stays – the trip will be no problem, he’ll be flying up that hill at Cheltenham.
I’d challenge anyone who says he wouldn’t have won the King George and the only way he’s out of the first three in the Gold Cup is if something goes wrong.
His quirks have been blown a little out of proportion in my eyes. He could well think about it at the start again, but I can’t spend the next few weeks thinking about if a horse is going to start a race or not, if he doesn’t, he doesn’t, but I won’t lose sleep thinking about it.
There are a few in here that you could try and make an each way case for, but I think the cream will rise to the top and Shishkin is a solid bet.
Recommended Bet
Back Shishkin @ 10/1 each way ante post or 9/1 each way NRMB
Final Festival Pointers
I’ve found the novice hurdles tricky to analyse from an ante post perspective, particularly as Willie Mullins has so many of the contenders and he’ll be splitting them up as best he can. Wherever Ballyburn runs he’ll be hard to beat, but he’s the only real standout.
The novice chases have become a bit like that too as Fact To File looks almost 50/50 to run in either the Turners or Brown Advisory. I think he should (and hope) he runs in the Turners given the amount of speed he’s shown over fences, but he will also likely win whatever race he runs in.
I absolutely loved what Edwardstone did in the Game Spirit at Newbury, and I genuinely think he could win the Champion Chase, provided he goes from the front. That is the best chance he has of winning the race as he could expose jumping error in the entire field, including El Fabiolo and Jonbon. Edwardstone really was electric at Newbury, and he would put them to the sword on the old course.
Alan King didn’t seem sure the same tactics would be adopted at Cheltenham, so perhaps wait until they line up before backing him. But if he looks as though he’ll go from the front, I’ll be backing him each way.
The weather will play a huge part in the Ryanair which is the main reason why I’ve left that race alone. If the ground is good to soft or better, Banbridge will have a good chance and I imagine he will be backed accordingly, but if it’s soft or worse he may not even run. The only reason I’ve not backed him NRMB is that because it’s Cheltenham, he could well still run even if it’s soft, but his chance will be diminished. But it looks a really competitive renewal all the same so I’m biding my time.
I have a feeling the Mares Novice Hurdle could feasibly be one of the races of the meeting. There are some really exciting prospects lining up with Jade De Grugy, Brighterdaysahead and Dysart Enos all looking high quality mares. Plus, throw in the likes of Queens Gamble, Golden Ace and whatever else Willie Mullins runs.
I can’t have a bet at this stage, but that may change come race day.
If you want a horse to include in some multiples, then I don’t think you’ll find one more solid than Sir Gino in the Triumph Hurdle. He’s short in the market now, but I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him even at odds on.
What he did on trials day was exceptional in brushing aside Burdett Road so easily. He’s a supremely talented individual and I’d be surprised if anything beats him this season.
I’ve not dabbled in any of the handicaps yet and will be waiting until entries and weights come out before getting stuck into those.
Hopefully, we’ve already got some winners locked in as we’ve got some decent value, with the only one down being the sad loss of Hermes Allen.
I do find it useful during the week to have had some of those ante post bets on as even though I then take each race as it comes on the day itself, if I come to the same opinion as my ante post bet, it means I don’t need to add anymore stake, so it feels like it saves the wallet a bit too.
But good luck with all your bets and most of all, enjoy it!
Alex Peperell
Get all Alex' selections at https://www.oncourseprofits.com/peps-big-race-tips/
Editor’s note: We posted the recommended bets in the Platinum Members Area on 14th February, the prices quoted were generally available at that time. We have also added the above runners to our tracker as a reminder.
